Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

NOGAPS is actually farther south than GFS or Canadian, which might not be a bad forecast for this wave. But farther south = greater low-level shear = less chance of development. I think the only shot this system has is if it tracks north of the Caribbean to east of the Bahamas late next week. Chances of development are somewhere between slim and none - but slim hasn't left town yet.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO has a little more action not a lot but a little more than before.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Meso]

A couple of storms at the end of the latest GFS

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z EURO has a little more action not a lot but a little more than before.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

I believe the Euro was the cream of the crop last year from being the 1st to see Ike killing TX to making X-Y-No eat his hat in the Fay fiasco...

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS has countless things in the run from 96 to 384 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

For the Caribbean members,dont forget to visit our tent thread at Weather Attic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[HUC]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html
Explanation of the quiet time by the Ncep:DUST and DUST!!!!!

[HUC]

and more right SAL,SAL..i know,there is a difference betwen these two features.Some prto czn explain us once more time???

[wxman57]

Canadian now takes it westward into the Caribbean - to its death.

[gatorcane]

The long-range GFS is finally starting to show some possibilities with a very organized system rolling off Africa at 384 hours:

[cycloneye]

The 00z CMC has a trio with one of them passing over my head.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

GFS continues with the parade of systems.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z UKMET has a system near CV islands moving west but fades at bthe end of run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

00z NOGAPS has a CV system moving west.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

Where is the EURO,you may be asking.Well it doesnt have anything of significance.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is Caribbean bound

If GFS in the 12z run is correct,we will see a system tracking from the Eastern Atlantic into the GOM.Follow the loop and see by yourself.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Hey fellow Caribbean members,by the 20th this is what GFS has for us.But is long range so I would take it with a grain of salt,unless other models show it.



12z CMC has a tropical storm in Eastern Atlantic

It has a weak system that fades in front of the supposed tropical storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12z EURO is aboard

After 72 hours,it fades,but is the first time it shows something more stronger than before.



12z NOGAPS has a weak low in Eastern Atlantic

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Frank2]

Yep, but if that trough in the Western Atlantic holds (or the Bermuda High is displaced that far to the east), then it'd be a "fish" system...

Frank

[KWT]

Way too early to tell though Frank with regards to the high and its placement, the models seem to be suggesting a weakness in the high but I think a positive NAO is quite possible and that would suggest a zonal flow further north in the Atlantic which means upper troughs not getting too far south, thats not to say there won't be a weakness, its something to watch.

[gatorcane]

Yep, but if that trough in the Western Atlantic holds (or the Bermuda High is displaced that far to the east), then it'd be a "fish" system...

Frank

Hi Frank that trough has been replaced with a long-wave pattern of H5 ridging......models continue to show a very solid persistent ridge now setting up over the Central Atlantic into the Western Atlantic. Question is how long does this last and will anything get going while we have this pattern in place that would push systems westward (block them from recurving).

In Southern Florida you probably notice what I mean -- deep easterly flow has now set in and there is no end in sight for this pattern. This is in stark on contrast to the pattern we saw most of this summer so far of a trough hanging along the Eastern CONUS pushing afternoon thunderstorms into the Eastern Metro areas of Southern FL.

Take a look at the 12Z GFS or 12Z Euro 500MB flow -- a very zonal pattern across the entire Atlantic for the next 10 days...so westbound systems are very possible during this timeframe.

[Derek Ortt]

you actually need a system first and so far, the models are developing different features. No need to worry yet about anything forming

[KWT]

True to an extent Derek but the fact nearly all of them do develop something in this region suggests they all think conditions will be favorable to an extent and the fact we have a decent wave emerging from Africa today does sort of suggest at least there is something to watch.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS is showing a couple of westrunner systems one of which moves all the way across the Atlantic making landfall in Central America.

What this is telling me is that there is a good deal of ridging in place across most of the Atlantic allowing for systems to move west. That system below starts out as a Cape Verde system just north of 10N and moves west all the way through the Caribbean with landfall in Central America.

[Blown Away]

Makes sense, Gator feel that nice E wind tonight, first of the summer I've noticed. I think the BH is going to be strong for a while according to the GFS.

[cycloneye]

Long range but fun to watch this track from 00z GFS of second wave from Africa to South Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z CMC and NOGAPS have them too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

00z UKMET has the twins.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

This is what long range scenarios do regularly.In 6 hours the 06z GFS changes from the Africa-South Texas track at 00z,to the Africa-just off the Carolinas track.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml