WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

[Cookie]

Invest 90W has formed several hundred miles east of the Philippines, southeast of Typhoon Morakot. The circulation is very large and broad but some persistant convection is firing near the centre of circulation and the system is displaying some formative banding features. Conditions are good with low shear, warm waters and good poleward outflow.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
146.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH
OF SAIPAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS MID-LEVEL CONVECTION STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER AN AREA OF
SHARP TURNING IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 061650Z 89 GHZ AMSRE IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED INFLOW INTO A DEVELOPING LOW CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHRIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST STARTING TO PROVIDE A POLEWARD TUG. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[brunota2003]

It looks really good for a brand new invest...I foresee this one becoming the WPac's newest member in the near future.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 070000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 140.2E TO 25.4N 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 062330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER AN AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 400 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAIPAN. A 062059Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED 15- TO 20-KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING, THOUGH ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 061650Z 89 GHZ AMSRE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS CURVED INFLOW
INTO THE LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 1.5 FROM PGTW AND 1.0 FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW WITH A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHRIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
TO PROVIDE A POLEWARD TUG. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION AND
DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080000Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Still has some work to do

[HURAKAN]

Floater is up: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[Iune]

Upgraded to TD 10W, the advisory link is not working

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062351ZJUL2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 01
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 23.7N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 139.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.9N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.2N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 31.0N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.7N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.4N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.9N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 108.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z
IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
070000Z AUG 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 070000)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
08W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

The only thing missing so far this year is a Supertyphoon.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 22.7N 139.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 24.6N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 139.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.8N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 29.4N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.9N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 34.3N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 37.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.9N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 138.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W
(TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FEEDING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
CENTER. A 080353Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS TWO POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH WEAK SURFACE STRIATIONS WRAPPING INTO BOTH POCKETS WITH NO
CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THESE FEATURES LEAD TO AN
ANALYSIS THAT THERE ARE TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT HAS A BETTER LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE.
CURRENT OBJECTIVE AIDS SET IS POOR WITH GFS AND WBAR SUPPORTING A
RECURVE SCENARIO ALONG THE JAPANESE SOUTH COAST, NOGAPS CONTINUING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATING OVER JAPAN, AND EGRR AND GFDN
FAILING TO TRACK THE SYSTEM BEYOND 12 HOURS, PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE
WEAK INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IN CONTRAST TO THE LARGE EXTENT OF 09W
(MORAKOT) AND THE POOR LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. TRACK IS BASED ON MODEL
FIELDS FROM ECMWF ALONG WITH WBAR AND GFS OBJECTIVE AIDS WHICH WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Not looking as good as it did before

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 138.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 138.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.9N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.4N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.5N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 37.9N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 39.5N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 138.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[somethingfunny]

How much room has this one got to intensify in before SSTs drop near Japan?

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 24.5N 138.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 990 HPA
AT 18.3N 107.6E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING SOUTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 142E 47N 152E 53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 32N 180E 32N 163E 32N 150E 32N 140E 35N 140E 41N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 37N 148E ESE 15 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 36N 154E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 54N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 44N 176E NE 20 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 40N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 42N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 38N 141E TO 37N 144E 37N 148E 36N 152E 36N 154E 35N 157E 35N 160E 35N 163E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 0908 MORAKOT (0908) 970 HPA AT 24.7N 120.3E : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 26.5N 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 29.1N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.6N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 34.3N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 36.1N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 38.1N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 39.6N 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 137.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 10W HAS SEEN A RECENT ORGANIZATION
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN
THE PAST 06 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT FOR TD 10W HAS
BEEN NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
SLOW THROUGH TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET), COMPLETING ET BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z,
091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GONI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 25.7N 136.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA
AT 17.8N 107.9E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 32N 180E 32N 160E 32N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 37N 148E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 36N 156E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 54N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 47N 179E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 42N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 142E TO 36N 145E 37N 148E 35N 152E 36N 156E
35N 159E 35N 162E 35N 163E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0908 MORAKOT (0908) 970 HPA AT 24.9N 120.1E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=