Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Gusty
those web cams you posted actually are from St Barth's, not St. Maarten, although St. Barth's is just a hop, skip and a jump away from us.

Luis, I was wondering, is there any way to make the web cam links a sticky at the top of every new page.
I am not sure people will remember to go look at the first page.
what do you think?
I also have a few mroe st maarten cams, if you are interested.
Barbara

Tkanks Msbee glad to know that Agree with you for the possible problem of looking the cams at the first page.
I'm interrested by cams of st marteen if you can post it i will appreciate

[FireBird]

The strong showers and tstorms embedded in the ITCZ continue to pop nicely :darrow:

Hey Gustywind, I'm sure my weekend's gonna be soggy, along with the other isles in the Lesser Antilles. Though we don't get flood watches for specific areas in Trinidad, my neighbourhood floods with any intense showers - thunderstorm or not. So I'll be on my "P's" and "Q's" this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Gusty
those web cams you posted actually are from St Barth's, not St. Maarten, although St. Barth's is just a hop, skip and a jump away from us.

Luis, I was wondering, is there any way to make the web cam links a sticky at the top of every new page.
I am not sure people will remember to go look at the first page.
what do you think?
I also have a few mroe st maarten cams, if you are interested.
Barbara

Yes,web cams can be posted all along the thread,but my idea is to have them all in the first post of thread for anyone who may want to see them all in one place.I will make promotions about it.Lets see how it goes.Bring more,the more the better.

[Gustywind]

The strong showers and tstorms embedded in the ITCZ continue to pop nicely :darrow:

Hey Gustywind, I'm sure my weekend's gonna be soggy, along with the other isles in the Lesser Antilles. Though we don't get flood watches for specific areas in Trinidad, my neighbourhood floods with any intense showers - thunderstorm or not. So I'll be on my "P's" and "Q's" this weekend.

How are you? You're right, be prudent this weekend as usual!

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS JUST E
OF THE WAVE AXIS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WAVE
POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...RECENT
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS DO SHOW SLIGHT LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W-72W...AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
69W-71W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS UNDER A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 91W-94W.

...ITCZ...
70
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N25W 14N39W 11N52W
10N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
20W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 24W-31W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 15N43W TO
9N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 45W-50W...ENHANCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM 21N-26N W OF 91W...AND FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 83W-89W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 23N90W TO 29N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N93W TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE W CENTERED OVER NRN
MEXICO NEAR 28N106W...AND TO THE E CENTERED N OF CUBA NEAR
24N78W...IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS S FLORIDA EXTENDING FROM 25N82W TO
28N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
REACHING UP TO 15 KT IN THE SW GULF. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
22N93W...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH N OF CUBA NEAR 24N78W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. THIS
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER ERN CUBA N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-85W...AS WELL AS OFF THE
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE FROM 16N-19N W OF 84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 75W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER COLUMBIA NEAR 8N77W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 68W-72W...AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 69W-71W. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W TO CONTINUE
WWD...AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 53W WILL ENTER
THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW ATLC NW OF A
LINE FROM 23N79 TO 32N74WW. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. NEAR
S FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS S FLORIDA EXTENDING
FROM 25N82W TO 28N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH N OF
CUBA NEAR 24N78W IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ERN BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM 24N72W TO
29N71W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
41W-49W ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N43W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N44W. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 17N58W ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN PORTION
OF THE ITCZ. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N25W IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 7, 2009 11:15 am ET

Back over the Atlantic, things are much quieter.

A couple of weak tropical waves continue to move west across the tropical basin, but these are not expected to show any organization. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain quiet through the weekend.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 071444
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1044 AM AST FRI AUG 7 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NEARLY NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.

DRY AND HAZY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS AND
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 071759
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
159 PM AST FRI AUG 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT LOW)...WILL CONTINUE JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE WEAKENING DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AND SATELLITE
IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR...JUST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXTENDING TO THE EAST
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON AND NAAPS TOTAL OPTICAL DEPTH CHARTS ALSO DEPICTED A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER EMBEDDED IN THIS DRY AIR MASS. AS
THIS DRY AND HAZY AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE FA...EXPECT MOSTLY
STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING THE
GFS FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATED PWAT VALUES DECREASING STEADILY
FROM 1.66 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON TO 1.37 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECT TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53 WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. LATEST GFS ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATED THAT A MORE ROBUST
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 35 WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL APPROACH TO THE
FA ON WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 12 HOURS.
HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES 6-8SM AND 20-KT WIND GUSTS. ONLY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 22Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 88 / 10 20 30 30
STT 81 91 79 90 / 10 30 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2009

OUTLOOK: LATEST 200 HPA VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AND IR
IMAGES...AS AN EVALUATION TOOL OF MJO CONDITIONS...SHOW A
FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHICH IN-TURN SUSTAINS A SURGE IN ITCZ RELATED
CONVECTION. THE EWP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING
ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID
AUGUST...WHERE IT THEN MEANDERS FOR 10-15 DAYS. AS CONVECTION
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE RESULTING
OUTFLOW PATTERN TENDS TO ENHANCE THE EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA/TROPICAL ATLANTIC
(TYPICALLY AROUND 100-50 HPA). THE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS
TYPICAL OF WARM ENSO CONDITIONS. BUT THUS FAR THIS IS NOT
HAPPENING... AND IT IS NOT FORECAST TO ESTABLISH IN THE
SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE PATTERN. SO THE ONLY THING THAT SEEMS TO BE
INHIBITING TROPICAL STORM FORMATION OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
SEEMS TO BE THE FREQUENT SURGES AND STRONG SAL EVENTS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[cycloneye]

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N20W 10N25W 12N36W 12N39W
12N46W 12N49W 10N54W AND INTO ERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 24W-32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 8N49W TO 14N45W. EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN 47W-64W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST FRI AUG 7 2009

.UPDATE...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS TUTT CONTINUED
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG
SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEREFORE DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW AMPLITUDE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57 WEST AND JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS STILL FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH INITIALIZED WELL AND HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PRESENT AND
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST TJSJ 00Z U/A AIR SOUNDING WAS
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE WITH STRENGTHENING 2 DEG SUBSIDENCE CAP
BTWN 800-850MB. NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 080156
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST FRI AUG 7 2009

HAZY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE EAST.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Just a wink of Africa and the twave activity...
The next wave to emerge seems as its predecessors pretty seductive but void of any deep and persistent convection let's wait and see...

[Gustywind]

SAL has pretty diminished allowing for maybe more conducive conditions

[Gustywind]

SAL has pretty diminished allowing for maybe more conducive conditions

Link does not want to open, so here is the site :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... plitE&time

[Gustywind]

James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 7, 2009 8:43 pm ET

Back over the Atlantic, things are much quieter.

A couple of weak tropical waves continue to move west across the tropical basin, but these are not expected to show any organization. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain very quiet for August through the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.Hazy and mainly dry today in PR.Watching all of what is going on to our east.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST SAT AUG 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...OOZ SAT TJSJ
SOUNDING AND LATEST CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE...LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER DRY...HAZY AND STABLE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE AS PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVE FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF PASSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.