Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

If there's anything to it we'll get a noctural burst out of it tonight or when it enters the ramp up in SST's near the islands...

[Blown Away]

If there's anything to it we'll get a noctural burst out of it tonight or when it enters the ramp up in SST's near the islands...

The TAFB has the wave moving more WNW to NW soon. It appears the wave is moving just N of due W. Due west is death, NW gives the wave a chance. I keep following as long as there is persistent convection.

[gatorcane]

probably should be mentioned in the TWO now with this persistent convection. It's grabbing my eye some now. Last I checked it is August also.

Also probably worth changing the title as it approaches the Leewards or extreme NE Leewards.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Little pop of convection to the S of the main blob, let's see if it persists.

Just wanted to move the satellite loop to the new page.

[cycloneye]

Blown_away,a suggestion for a title change imo would be,(Disturbance east of the Windward islands)

[drezee]

If you recall a little elongated system that looked a lot like this named Iris in 1995. A little spin-up in the east to west oriented wave...turned into a name system...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Last home made hi-res visible loop of the day via NASA before sunset...

[Sanibel]

Nice loop Ed.

Looks like a classic center burst to me with rough curvature starting to gell.

[drezee]

Iris started near the same location...

22/1200 13.2 49.3 1008 30 Tropical Depression

[gatorcane]

Looking suspect:

[Lifesgud2]

Gator...

Nothing to be concerned about just yet..Should fall apart by early Sunday. Season is going to be very quiet. Something may turn up in mid to late sept..

[Sanibel]

Burst busted. Would have to burst again soon tonight to develop. Doesn't look good right now.

[cycloneye]

All of that is part of the ITCZ that is above 10N according to the latest discussion.In that there is a surface trough embedded.

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N20W 10N25W 12N36W 12N39W
12N46W 12N49W 10N54W AND INTO ERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 24W-32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 8N49W TO 14N45W. EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN 47W-64W.


http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

A reminder to the Caribbean members to visit our tent thread at Weather Attic forum.Also we would like to see members from outside the Caribbean to chim in That thread has observations,daily weather,forecasts,sat pics,radars,web cams. and much more.By the way,the web cams are posted at the first post of thread.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

All of that is part of the ITCZ that is above 10N according to the latest discussion.In that there is a surface trough embedded.

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N20W 10N25W 12N36W 12N39W
12N46W 12N49W 10N54W AND INTO ERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 24W-32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 8N49W TO 14N45W. EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN 47W-64W.


http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

A reminder to the Caribbean members to visit our tent thread at Weather Attic forum.Also we would like to see members from outside the Caribbean to chim in That thread has observations,daily weather,forecasts,sat pics,radars,web cams. and much more.By the way,the web cams are posted at the first post of thread.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

Absolutely Cycloneye you're right... be welcomed in the "Carib family" . We will be happy to see you!
Also, don't forget to visit my thread about "The abundance of fruits meaning a sign of an approaching cane". If you have any observations concerning the subjet you can post them it's free.
You will discover my island as i put some nice sat pics of the butterfly island of Guadeloupe and its fruits, etc... Go and visit at viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102339

[Sanibel]

There's the night burst. Still a little weak but maybe it will come together faster soon:

[floridasun78]

nogap got weak low come out system and move it over north windward islands and PR by start next week so area could be watch during weekend it nogap on navy site

[Sanibel]

Expanding nocturnal burst. Think we might have something here.

[Sanibel]

Big re-burst 3:30 am.


Showtime folks.

[Nimbus]

This wave is pulling up some moisture from the ITCZ but the forecast shear should keep it from developing quickly. Could the TUTT be on the move as the current shortwave off the east coast lifts out? The only change in trend other than that appears to be a moisture increasing along the ITCZ.