Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Another warm center burst with rough curvature.


System just doesn't have the depth to organize.

[Blown Away]

I think the general track of this wave is towards PR/Hispaniola, which would shoot the gap of high shear based on the tendancy map Gator posted. IMO, Code Yellow.

[wxman57]

NHC is likely to mention this area in their next update -- code yellow would make sense.

They have to acknowledge that there's a wave there, first.

Just checked 850mb flow across the Caribbean and the strong flow has shifted west of 75W and south of 16N. Now, it just has to survive in the generally sinking air in the Caribbean. Tough life ahead of it.

[floridasun78]

wxman57 you on strom2k alot? you work for noaa or tv station ? remember that thing changing in tropical this not june or july we have ana very soon and you forecast

[Blown Away]

NHC is likely to mention this area in their next update -- code yellow would make sense.

They have to acknowledge that there's a wave there, first.

Just checked 850mb flow across the Caribbean and the strong flow has shifted west of 75W and south of 16N. Now, it just has to survive in the generally sinking air in the Caribbean. Tough life ahead of it.

That assumes it's going into the central Caribbean but it appears the convection has a WNW motion now which would bring this disturbance on a track generally towards PR/Hispaniola. On that track it seems the disturbance would miss the intense shear. Do you think this disturbance has better chance than it did yesterday, I know it's still very low?

[floridasun78]

NHC is likely to mention this area in their next update -- code yellow would make sense.

They have to acknowledge that there's a wave there, first.

Just checked 850mb flow across the Caribbean and the strong flow has shifted west of 75W and south of 16N. Now, it just has to survive in the generally sinking air in the Caribbean. Tough life ahead of it.

That assumes it's going into the central Caribbean but it appears the convection has a WNW motion now which would bring this disturbance on a track generally towards PR/Hispaniola. On that track it seems the disturbance would miss the intense shear. Do you think this disturbance has better chance than it did yesterday, I know it's still very low?

navy nogap lot low forming with this taking it over northern leedward and toward PR/Hispaniola maybe east of bahamas not into carribbean

[Blown Away]

When the TAFB was keeping a low w/ this wave it was moving it towards PR. So I don't think the area will move S of Hispaniola. Very interested to see if the NHC is interested at the 8pm.

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: When the TAFB was keeping a low w/ this wave it was moving it towards PR. So I don't think the area will move S of Hispaniola. Very interested to see if the NHC is interested at the 8pm.

i notice this season nhc are more carefully to put circle over area their most likely able tell this year if TW have chance or not

[wxman57]

Wave appears to be weakening now. Axis getting hard to locate with obs. Pressures at the two nearby buoys are rising - up to 1014-1015mb. Convection weakening. I think chances of development are only a few percent, lower than with most tropical waves this time of year. Look to Africa for Ana.

[floridasun78]

ok this wave is dead wxman say so let close this topic why talk about this wave if it dead forecast by wxman do every agree with him ????

[SEASON_CANCELED]

huh? wave is certainly not dead. unless im lookin at old satelitte
rfiy

i see your sarcasm. Wxman is just looking at the facts and guessing like everyone else.

[CourierPR]

ok this wave is dead wxman say so let close this topic why talk about this wave if it dead forecast by wxman do every agree with him ????

Note that the topic is Disturbance East of Windward Islands. I believe WXMAN referred to weakening of the disturbance but, since it still exists, the discussion continues.

[Recurve]

He's right about 99.49 percent of the time, near as I can tell.

It's still a wave henceforth and therefore worth watching. Windwards may still get some weather, members there have to keep at least one eye open.

[floridasun78]

i see this not gone poof it fight dust and shear

[wxman57]

I just made an observation of the current trend - weakening.

[Sanibel]

There's no depth to this wave. Eaten alive by dry conditions and subsidence. 2009 strikes again.

[LaBreeze]

I agree Sanibel!

[Hyperstorm]

This system has no favorable conditions ahead and does not have that "It" factor as I call it. Change your view to the east...

[DanKellFla]

YELLOW ALEART
YELLOW ALEART

[somethingfunny]

LOL.

It ain't anything right now except an increased chance of showers for the islands in the next few days. But....it has had enough energy and persistence that I wouldn't be surprised to see it develop sometime down the pike, either in the Western Caribbean, the Gulf, or the Eastern Pacific depending on the path it takes.