ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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0000
200908091202
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2009, DB, O, 2009080912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992009
AL, 99, 2009080912, , BEST, 0, 125N, 212W, 25, 0, DB,
AL, 99, 2009080818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 167W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2009080900, , BEST, 0, 121N, 180W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2009080906, , BEST, 0, 123N, 193W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2009080912, , BEST, 0, 125N, 206W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

Best contender to be named Ana!

[hawkeh]

Wave is looking great this morning, not surprised at all to see this as an INVEST so soon.

[Scorpion]

Wow, it sure looks like a TD already.

[Gustywind]

99L in excellent shape...

[caribepr]

Keeping watch...

[Gustywind]

Keeping watch...

Absolutely caribpr. But where are the first plots?

[cycloneye]

Keeping watch...

Absolutely caribpr. But where are the first plots?

They are comming shortly.

Dont forget to visit our Eastern Caribbean tent thread at Weather Attic forum to discuss this system there among the Caribbean members.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[CronkPSU]

wow, that thing developed quickly after coming off the coast...hope we get Ana out of this so Floridians start getting ready and take hurricane preps seriously but this looks like a fish

[wx247]

What does shear look like out ahead of 99L over the next 12-24 hours?

[Gustywind]

Keeping watch...

Absolutely caribpr. But where are the first plots?

They are comming shortly.

Dont forget to visit our Eastern Caribbean tent thread at Weather Attic forum to discuss this system there among the Caribbean members.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

OK Luis, matter of time

[HURAKAN]

Looking excellent

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC SUN AUG 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992009) 20090809 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090809 1200 090810 0000 090810 1200 090811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 20.6W 13.5N 23.5W 14.3N 26.5W 15.1N 29.3W
BAMD 12.5N 20.6W 13.2N 23.0W 14.1N 25.2W 15.3N 27.0W
BAMM 12.5N 20.6W 13.6N 23.3W 14.6N 26.0W 15.7N 28.3W
LBAR 12.5N 20.6W 13.3N 22.9W 14.4N 25.3W 15.9N 27.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090811 1200 090812 1200 090813 1200 090814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 31.9W 16.0N 36.3W 17.3N 40.3W 19.6N 45.0W
BAMD 16.5N 28.8W 18.8N 32.6W 21.1N 36.0W 24.2N 36.9W
BAMM 16.7N 30.6W 18.6N 34.9W 20.7N 39.3W 23.3N 42.7W
LBAR 17.5N 28.6W 21.8N 30.4W 26.2N 32.0W 28.5N 32.4W
SHIP 51KTS 60KTS 58KTS 49KTS
DSHP 51KTS 60KTS 58KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 20.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 18.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[floridasun78]

it look good on sat pic

[HURAKAN]

Open Atlantic, here we go!

[cycloneye]

Garrett,shear looks favorable until late in the forecast period,around 96 to 120 hours.

Code: Select all

             *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED        *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL992009  08/09/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    37    45    51    56    60    61    58    55    49
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    37    45    51    56    60    61    58    55    49
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    26    28    29    33    37    41    45    49    50    50    45

SHEAR (KT)        15    14     6     8     7     3     1     4     7    13    19    30    37
SHEAR DIR         38    25    21     5   332   284   297   219   205   207   237   233   250
SST (C)         27.6  27.5  27.2  27.0  26.8  26.3  25.9  25.8  25.7  25.8  26.1  26.5  26.7
POT. INT. (KT)   133   132   128   126   123   118   113   112   112   112   115   119   121
ADJ. POT. INT.   133   132   127   124   120   113   107   106   105   105   106   108   109
200 MB T (C)   -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     6     6     6     6     6     6     6
700-500 MB RH     70    67    64    65    62    61    59    52    51    47    45    46    45
GFS VTEX (KT)      9    13    13    13    13    14    15    14    14    15    14    14    13
850 MB ENV VOR     7    11     6     9    14    20    17    49    60    51    20     1   -27
200 MB DIV        63    74    32    27    45    23     7     3    -2    14    11    22     0
LAND (KM)        411   517   638   773   913  1162  1416  1641  1890  2099  2260  2257  2291
LAT (DEG N)     12.5  13.1  13.6  14.1  14.6  15.7  16.7  17.6  18.6  19.7  20.7  22.0  23.3
LONG(DEG W)     20.6  22.0  23.3  24.7  26.0  28.3  30.6  32.6  34.9  37.1  39.3  41.1  42.7
STM SPEED (KT)    14    14    14    14    13    12    11    11    12    11    11    10     9
HEAT CONTENT       9     6     4     2     3     1     0     0     0     0     1     6     8

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  556  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  55.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   5.   9.  14.  18.  21.  23.  24.  25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.  10.  12.  13.  13.  12.  10.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -13.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   9.  12.  20.  26.  31.  35.  36.  33.  30.  24.

   ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009     INVEST 08/09/09  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  10.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  48.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 102.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  65.4 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   4.8 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)


[Emmett_Brown]

Very early of course, but the initial model (BAM S, M, D and LBar) runs want to take this north of 20 N prior to 40 W, suggesting a fish storm.

[HURAKAN]

Visible

[CrazyC83]

I almost think this is TD2 by the looks of it. At least it is likely to go - unless it tracks up enough north and west to go after the Azores.

[HURAKAN]

Ships takes it to hurricane intensity