Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Was reading our our local AFD this morning and came across this in our long range discussion...

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE FCAST WILL HINGE
GREATLY ON WHAT THE TROUGH AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED DOES
AND GREATLY ON WHERE THEY ARE LOCATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE UPPER SHEAR TO
WEAKEN DOWN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF. WHY DOES THIS
CAUSE CONCERN? B/C THE DEEP MOISTURE AND OLD SFC TROUGH AXIS ARE
SUPPOSED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ANOTHER...BUT
THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
GULF. WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN A LOT OF ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT IT IS
HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO BOTHERS ME BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CHANGE THE 6-7TH DAY OF THE FCAST.

Went and searched other area's long range forecast around the gulf but found nothing else that even mentions the slightest idea of anything tropical developing.

Is there a true cause for concern or is this forecaster trying to find any little chance of some kind of activity to talk about?

[somethingfunny]

Is he referring to the wave currently east of the Windard Islands ?

Interesting that he would take the initiative of forecasting this above the NHC's heads. Perhaps regardless of development, this could bring some needed rain to the area.

[gatorcane]

I think the 00Z run of the GFS sparked the forecasters discussion....

[KatDaddy]

Well FWIW Joe Bastardi has concern for the East Coast and Western/Central GOM. El Nino years are very dangerous for the Gulf Coast...Audrey, Betsy, Camille, ( Anita, near miss) Alicia, Lili and Isadore. I hate the thought
of another hurricane threat for the Upper TX Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Given the time of year and the pattern we've been stuck in, I have my "concerns" as well.

[Derek Ortt]

Well FWIW Joe Bastardi has concern for the East Coast and Western/Central GOM. El Nino years are very dangerous for the Gulf Coast...Audrey, Betsy, Camille, ( Anita, near miss) Alicia, Lili and Isadore. I hate the thought
of another hurricane threat for the Upper TX Coast.

you missed a few

Andrew and Beulah (if 1967 was an el nino year... I suspect so given the late start to the season)

[Ptarmigan]

Well FWIW Joe Bastardi has concern for the East Coast and Western/Central GOM. El Nino years are very dangerous for the Gulf Coast...Audrey, Betsy, Camille, ( Anita, near miss) Alicia, Lili and Isadore. I hate the thought
of another hurricane threat for the Upper TX Coast.

Same here. Isidore was forecasted to hit as a Category 4 hurricane in the New Orleans area. However, it hit as a tropical storm. Talk about a close call right there! Sadly, that would not happen with Katrina.

[KatDaddy]

Yep I forgot about Andrew in 92 and I did not know Beulah was an El Nino year. The GOM is very warm. I could not imagine the Upper TX Coast being hit back to back years however that was more the case in the 40s than not.
I just finished cleaning out of the screw insets for the panels. Little wasps love to use them as a nest. Something you will not want to do when putting up panels for a hurricane threat. Time is very important. We may not have 4 days to prepare the next time.

[Flyinman]

Unfortunately the upper Texas coast has been hit back to back. While it was small, Humberto hit Beaumont in 2007, then Ike in 2008, not to mention Rita in 2005. Now I know Ike was not a direct hit but damage said otherwise. I grew up in Beaumont and just moved last year. The biggest storm we had prior to Rita was Alicia in the 80's. So we went 20 years before another major storm then 2 in 4 years with one minor in between. My stomah churns everyday now during Hurricane season. I am not liking what I am seeing so far and neither does my gut (which is not a scientific predictor).

[vbhoutex]

Ya'll are upsetting my very substantial gut with this talk! Now ya'll stop y'hear?
Daytime seabreeze thunderstorms is fine, but not talk like this!

[gatorcane]

Good things its long-range and will change:

At this point all I can say is its 340+ hours out, so likely not to verify.

[MGC]

Yea, I sure don't want that to verify.....MGC

[LaBreeze]

I read on another board that some are thinking this "system" will head to Mobile. I'm just concerned because of the deep heat in the GOM and nothing has been out there to churn it or cool it down any. Hmmm.

[ROCK]

long range GFS after 144-180hrs is like pinning the tail on a donkey... . However I do not like the fact the GOM is blazing hot and the MJO pulse is making its way into the ALT....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Ed Mahmoud]

besides showing potential Ana defintely on its way to rendevous with a trough and go fishing, Euro 10 day 500 mb forecast suggests anything in the Caribbean would have a hard time hitting much North of Veracruz.





I will say, in a Nino year Florida first/Central Gulf second storms like Andrew and Betsy, I'd be slightly more aware (but not nervous) living East of Vermilion Bay.


Just because Felicia is falling apart, well, Iwa was in an El Nino November. Hawai'i is my #2 pick after Florida. Amatuer opinion, not responsible for parimutual betting.

BTW, the GFS suffers a complete lobotomy after hour 180. Hour 384 hurricanes anywhere mean nothing. Less than 180 hours, different story. Like the 6Z GFS calling the December 10th Houston snow miracle almost 5 days in advance.

[jinftl]

don't believe everything you read on this...or other....boards.....how on earth can anyone be talking a Mobile system when there isn't even a system in existence yet....and more likely than not, will never exist.

this is how misinformation gets spread....

I read on another board that some are thinking this "system" will head to Mobile. I'm just concerned because of the deep heat in the GOM and nothing has been out there to churn it or cool it down any. Hmmm.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I saw this one on the long range GFS and wondered where it came from. I believe it to be generated by the remnants of that trough/wave heading through the leewards right now.



Any thoughts?

[LaBreeze]

I know jinftl. I thought that it was strange that they were posting something like that. I don't ever believe posts that are that outrageous. Yes, I know this is total misinformation. I didn't want to spread it. Believe me, I know that things can change on a dime in the tropics - been around long enough to see that happen many times. Sorry, I guess I shouldn't have mentioned it.

[SETXWXLADY]

Ah good. So its not just my tummy rumbling. It is the groan heard 'round Texas. Yuck! Yes the upper Texas coast has gotten hammered for the last four years. I wish someone would paint over that bullseye we have on us.

[nashrobertsx]

AFD NEW ORLEANS THIS MORNING.... MAYBE THERE SHOULD BE TWO POSTS SINCE THERE IS SUPPOSED TO BE DISTURBANCE FIRST GOING INTO TEXAS AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IN THE GULF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT STALLS EITHER VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
BY THU NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT
THU WILL CUT OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF BY FRI. THIS
LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR A FEW DAYS AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX. THIS WILL CAUSE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP DOWN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. THEN WE INTRODUCE A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN. THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBDUCT THE UPPER HIGH WHERE THERE WILL BE WEAK SHEAR AND A VERY
HOSPITABLE REGION FOR GROWTH. WE MAY SEE THIS AS SOON AS SUNDAY.
WOULD NORMALLY DISMISS THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION SO FAR OUT BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL INITIALIZING VERY WELL AND SHOW THE MODERATE
TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
ROTATION WELL ABOVE THE SFC ALONG 44W. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR
MAYBE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...NOT THE ONE THAT IS GARNISHING
ALL THE ATTENTION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TIMING REMAINS SKETCHY AT
BEST BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE PEAK OF
THE SEASON. NOT VERY OFTEN THAT I WILL MAKE ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO
THE EXTENDED BUT HAVE OPTED TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY. IF THIS CURRENT MODEL TREND
CONTINUES THESE NUMBERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER.