Global model runs discussion

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gatorcane
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#501 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:53 am

there is some monster wave that rolls off Africa in a couple of days that could be the real player to watch as far as landfall potential down the road. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw this (also notice another Cape Verde system gearing up off Africa):

Granted we are still in the long-range and things will change:

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#502 Postby Frank2 » Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:13 am

Hi Gatorcane,

Have you moved since last season?

True, after all of the troughiness we have been in an easterly flow since last week, so it does make things more "hurricane-friendly", for certain, though as in last season, too much ridging can mean systems will continue west, well to our south - we'll see...

Per the system now just south of the CV islands - it's already at 15N so it'll likely be a fishie, since it's developing so quickly (you'll need Java to see the below loop):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

so much for my "Perfect Season" thinking (but it was a nice while it lasted)...

Frank
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#503 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:51 am

12z GFS has system behind 99L hitting Miami! Is long range so take it from there. :)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#504 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:59 am

:uarrow: You can always count on the GFS to bring a giant apocalyptic hurricane into Miami at least once during every hurricane season. :D
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#505 Postby ronjon » Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:10 pm

GFS has hurricane plowing into Miami at 360 hrs on the exact day as Andrew..August 24th..how ironic

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_360s.gif
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#506 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:18 pm

Yep, it is a tradition each season..to have the GFS show a Cat 5 pulling into miami at least once...maybe twice

Unless we are under 168 hours out.....i don't put much stock in those runs

Blown_away wrote::uarrow: You can always count on the GFS to bring a giant apocalyptic hurricane into Miami at least once during every hurricane season. :D
Last edited by jinftl on Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#507 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:21 pm

ronjon wrote:GFS has hurricane plowing into Miami at 360 hrs on the exact day as Andrew..August 24th..how ironic

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_360s.gif



hope thats wrong :cry:

looks like katrina/rita type setup where it double hits someone in the gulf after that. not cool but its just a model
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#508 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:23 pm

12z CMC has wave behind 99L moving WNW in Central Atlantic as a tropical storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#509 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 09, 2009 1:03 pm

12z UKMET develops the wave behind 99L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#510 Postby Macrocane » Sun Aug 09, 2009 1:06 pm

I think that there will be development of at least 2 named storms on the next 2 weeks as the GFS has been predicting, but it's still too early to believe on the tracks. The GFS has been changing the track of a possible hurricane with every run, first it was Central America, then the Gulf and now Florida. We will have to keep an eye on the tropical waves coming off from Africa cause the threat exists for the folks that live in Florida-GOM and for us that live in Central America. Things are becoming interesting in the Atlantic but I hope that they will be only fish stoms but don't let our guards down.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#511 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 09, 2009 2:08 pm

The 12z EURO develops the wave behind 99L.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#512 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Aug 09, 2009 2:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 12z EURO develops the wave behind 99L.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/


Too many models inline now something else were gonna have to watch
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#513 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 09, 2009 2:27 pm

agree, once you start to get consensus between models and model runs....the odds of 'something' being out there goes up

Latest Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability outlook from NOAA shows most of basin now in 'possible' and the area to the sw of the cape verde as 'fair'....most surface area that has been either of these thresholds season-to-date

Image

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The 12z EURO develops the wave behind 99L.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/


Too many models inline now something else were gonna have to watch
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#514 Postby Meso » Sun Aug 09, 2009 5:48 pm

348 hour GFS, after the two systems it's showing it develops another off Africa in 384 hours. Seems someone is turning on the switch.

Image
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#515 Postby vacanechaser » Sun Aug 09, 2009 6:42 pm

Meso wrote:348 hour GFS, after the two systems it's showing it develops another off Africa in 384 hours. Seems someone is turning on the switch.

Image



thats one hell of an image right there... but never never land.. although, very consistent about developing that wave..


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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#516 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Aug 09, 2009 7:54 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
Meso wrote:348 hour GFS, after the two systems it's showing it develops another off Africa in 384 hours. Seems someone is turning on the switch.

Image



thats one hell of an image right there... but never never land.. although, very consistent about developing that wave..


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Hurricane Intercept Research Team

It better be never never land!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#517 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:45 pm

yikes that is why I am a bit concerned about this wave behind 99L.... :uarrow:

Good thing it is long-range and probably won't happen, I hope. Synoptics point at a west bound system across the Atlantic though.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#518 Postby lonelymike » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:04 pm

The GFS.... :roll: You have better luck with the one eyed lady with the crystal ball next door :cheesy:
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#519 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:20 pm

lonelymike wrote:The GFS.... :roll: You have better luck with the one eyed lady with the crystal ball next door :cheesy:



I dont know GFS on its own isnt too bad. When others agree like we are seeing thats when the GFS scenarios become believable.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs

#520 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:09 pm

Where is the GFS run with NY city being smashed by a cat 5??? :lol: Usually the CMC does this every year but they worked out some bugs in it...to bad, that was always amusing.... :D
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