Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[gatorcane]

I think its our next invest:



GFS 12Z (track will likely change):

[cycloneye]

Is not the convection that is about to emerge the coast,but the one behind.

This image updates every 15 minutes.

[gatorcane]

Luis the 12Z GFS really gets dangerously close to Puerto Rico, there's also a new system behind that off Africa (its going to be a busy two weeks it looks like)

[Blown Away]

GFS 12Z (track will likely change):
[/quote]

What's spooky about that run is that it is the same day and same area Andrew made landfall. Fortunately these runs are not reliable this far out.

[Vortex]

I think this is the one yet to emerge from Africa(2-3 days) that especially has me interested. Given the model consistently on this feature and the fact that nearly all guidance supports this system tracking very far west before recurvature raises an eye brow.

[Emmett_Brown]

Judging from satellite, this new wave seems more sprawling and less organized than the last one. Might head W as a wave for a while. If soon to be TD1/Ana cranks up, outflow from that system could also keep this one in check.

To me, this one is not a lock to develop, and if it does, it would be more toward the central ATL, which could make it more dangerous to the islands.

[HURAKAN]

Remember we had an easy-to-forget depression in May!

[jinftl]

Right! This would be td #2

:uarrow: Remember we had an easy-to-forget depression in May!

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS starts developing early the wave behind 99L.

60 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

120 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

162 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

174 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Thats the one putting it over miami on the long range forecast i believe. Possible CONUS threat on this system

[KWT]

This one does need to be watched I totally agree, of course it could follow 99L into the weakness that is in the central Atlantic however this system may well be far enough to the south if the models are correct to escape that issue and if thats the case, then it could become a real threat somewhere down the road.

[Scorpion]

Haha.. good thing its a long way out

[Brent]

Haha.. good thing its a long way out

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_360m.gif

Indeed.

This is at least the 4th run in a row to show what appears to be a major hurricane hitting either the Yucatan or the U.S. mainland.

and there's another one SE of Bermuda at the same time.

[Ivanhater]

Good God, my house is gone if that run verified!

[ronjon]

GFS develops this system in 84 hrs. It's from the mass of convection just east of the African coast now.

[Macrocane]

Indeed.

This is at least the 4th run in a row to show what appears to be a major hurricane hitting either the Yucatan or the U.S. mainland.

and there's another one SE of Bermuda at the same time.

And one more just off the African coast.

[jaxfladude]

I want to go back to tropical boredom in the Atlantic.

[Iune]

Indeed.

This is at least the 4th run in a row to show what appears to be a major hurricane hitting either the Yucatan or the U.S. mainland.

and there's another one SE of Bermuda at the same time.

And one more just off the African coast.

Maybe Ana is back for revenge, it has never been used for a hurricane at all

[Scorpion]

Long Island Express

[Derek Ortt]

long range GFS now has this as a potential trillion dollar storm. Had this hitting the E Carib very hard, hitting Haiti, affecting the entire East Coast with landfall very near NYC.

Chances of this actually verifying... the same as me winning the Powerball on Wednesday AND Saturday