ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[HURAKAN]

Visible loop (0830-1500z)

Still looks good. Appears to be developing some banding.

[wxman57]

Convection continues to diminish now. It's easier to see the rotation without all those storms getting in the way. SHIPS guidance forecasts steadily decreasing SSTs next 72 hours, down to 25.7 deg. in 72 hours:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

Development chances don't appear to be very good.

[RL3AO]

So have we all learned our lesson?

The NHC knows what their doing. There was a reason they kept it at orange last night.

[KWT]

The truth is RL3AO it could have been a depression yesterday though, it really couldn't have been that far away yesterday eveing, maybe not quite closed off and at the time I think most people including probably the pros would have thought a red alert would be the best call rather then orange. I'll say this, put that in the gulf and we'd have certainly had a code red I'm sure!

Also I think some of us are probably getting a little trigger happy as well where as the NHC are less likely to get that.

[Derek Ortt]

no... orange was the best call last night. It was more likely to not develop than develop given the proximity of the SAL and luke warm model support

[KWT]

Maybe Derek but I'm saying I bet it would have been red alert in the gulf, agree or not?
I know its a bit of a silly point but its something Wxman57 raised earlier that the NHC do seem to classify differently based on location.

Still it does seem to have been the right call in this case, though talking about al lthe models, they all have flirted with weakly developing this, even the ECM...Alas they have backed off now.

Probably won't develop now though as its heading towards even more marginal waters over the next 24-48hrs and the convection reduction shows that as well...now need to watch the wave behind it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That is what I say, rotation is always easier to see without the pesky cirrus from convection getting in the way.


I'm back to rooting for a three storm season, to break the modern record and be a part of history.


All the models show the warm ENSO gone by next hurricane season, so after this years pitchers' dual, we can go back to the home run derby next season.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters analysis this morning.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009

A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.

Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 6 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

[Dean4Storms]

Much will depend on 99L's ability to develop and if so where it develops as to where the track eventually unfolds. The next 2 days should be key IMO.

[mcallum177]

What is the rush to have these storms upgraded? and why are some of you mad at the NHC?

[HURAKAN]

What is the rush to have these storms upgraded? and why are some of you mad at the NHC?

We know that the NHC is best at what they do but some of us have always expressed that many times systems in the WATL are upgraded faster than systems in the EATL. Which is understandable and many times makes sense, like we have seen with 99L.

We just want to track something in the Atlantic!!!

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS position is more left in this run, its backing down on the Central Atlantic weakness. But 99L is pretty weak in this run so that would explain that. Tracking now just north of Puerto Rico and the Leewards WNW to W. GFS seems to be backing off on a weakness and is more in line with the ECMWF H5 forecast.

[cpdaman]

All the models show the warm ENSO gone by next hurricane season, so after this years pitchers' dual, we can go back to the home run derby next season.

well gosh i'll be living in boston by then.....actually i'll be moving later this month......maybe i can get me some last tropical mishief in my last week down here in lovely SFL (perhaps long range GFS is onto something).

invest 99L looks decent......just that it is headed for cooler waters does not bode well for it......i'll be watching the next wave or two.....

On a side note i really wish i was staying but have to go for job......and i would never wish a significant storm to effect people's lives down here....NEVER.....but a part of me is happy to go ....believing that S.FL is living on borrowed time and has been lulled to sleep by a lack of a 1928 type storm moving thru the major metro centers for several decades......i mean unless their is some sort of high tech device to steer storms that is classified information i think a situ like a FLOYD coming thru has to be a given....but then again it's been several decades so why not a few more.......and yes i realize that jeanne hit as a low end 3 and wilma came thru as a strong 2 and andrew was a bomb unto itself.......but andrew was tiny and *the thing that i believe is vastly underestimated is the overall economic effect of a strong 4 like FlOYD coming thru metro areas vs. a smaller jeanne type system further up the coast.... the effect of the former would be expontentially larger....although perhaps the building codes on houses are better than i imagine.

....i hope a Large fish comes barrelling up the coast and spares the area and i would love to watch the surf from the cliff walk by NewPort, RI mansions over looking one of the biggest surf spots on the east coast. (ruggles) peace

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS run shows 99L much more west and just north of Puerto Rico and the Leewards at 168 hours....looks like this run shows little weakness in the H5 ridge across the Atlantic at least through 168 hours.

[Nimbus]

With the wave behind 99L showing more model support and a dangerous track further south I think the NHC decision not to upgrade was for the best. The media always seems to hype the first storm of the season. It could get the public confused if they hear that the first storm has weakened or tracked out to sea at the same time a stronger more dangerous threat emerges.

For the record what were the highest winds reported in the Cape Verde islands over the last 48 hours? Were there any winds that even reached gale strength reported over land?

[cycloneye]

12z CMC develops 99L and is more westward than in past runs.About what is behind,go to Talking tropics forum to the models thread.

[Lowpressure]

I agree in regards to the wave about to emerge off Africa having solid interest. It indeed also is in a more ominous southerly position.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 101736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

Very dry.

[OuterBanker]

12z gfs is rather interesting. Not sure which system it is seeing though.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html