Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 10, 2009 8:52 am ET

In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity with this system has waned a bit since yesterday. If this low can keep collocated showers and thunderstorm as it moves westward, a tropical depression may form over the next couple of days.

The remainder of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet at this time.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[Gustywind]

Twave activity...
Invest 99L and the wave that will emerge of the coast of Africa during the next couple hours...maybe our next suspicious canditate but this time pretty more souther than its predecessor...so keep watching it in case of.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 101420
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 AM AST MON AUG 10 2009

.UPDATE...PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR BETWEEN
18-22Z...RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.


&&

[Gustywind]

Interresting paragrah from a correspondant of the weather site of Stormcarib...about INVEST 99L http://www.stormcarib.com/

10 Aug 2009 12:13:51 -0000 - Invest 99L


Good morning,

While the Pacific Basin active and destructive, the Atlantic has been uncommonly quiet. But, right on cue, that appears to be coming to an end. Invest 99L, currently hovering around the Cape Verde Islands, has peaked interest at the NHC. Latest computer models have it going slightly north of west but it is still very early in the game. Saharan dust and dry air have not been inhibiting the development of this system and it should become a depression by tomorrow morning. Sea surface temps are warm enogh and wind shear is low. How close it will get to the islands is too early to call but it should go to the north.

Behind it are the rest of the wave family trying to make their mark as well. Look for some development of one of the next three over the next two weeks.

Dave

[Gustywind]

10 AM slight popping trend...St ViNcent, Ste Lucia and Martinica are experiencing already numerous showers...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[caribsue]

Barbados also experiencing showers accompanied by thunder and lightning. There was a period of about an hour where there was a lull but the rains have started again, although it is light at this time. For the next week my eyes will be focused on the east at Invest 99 and the weather behind that.

Fingers crossed my fellow C'bean friends

[caribsue]

UPDATE FROM BARBADOS.... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT UNTIL 1400HRS, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE.

[Gustywind]

Barbados also experiencing showers accompanied by thunder and lightning. There was a period of about an hour where there was a lull but the rains have started again, although it is light at this time. For the next week my eyes will be focused on the east at Invest 99 and the weather behind that.

Fingers crossed my fellow C'bean friends

Tkanks caribsue, nice post and observations , yeah 99L is something to watch carefully as we're entering the peak of the hurricane season! If you have any infos post them we will be glad to read them, we appreciate.

[Gustywind]

12 AM
Windwards under a bulk of moderate convection...


Another view/ sat pic

[FireBird]

Just an update from Trinidad. The wave we were all watching last week passed thru here in combine with an active ITCZ between Friday and yesterday. The end result was 1 death, massive flooding in the central plains, and 2 tornadoes.
I don't think it can be overstated - Our islands suffer loss even in the absence of developed tropical systems. I hope that my friends in Barbados and surrounding isles will keep safe during the pounding storms happening now. And let's keep vigilant as we look east.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 101513
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST MON AUG 10 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BY LATE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WITH THE HELP OF THE EASTERLY TRADES FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SOME PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE ISLANDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...A WET PERIOD IS EXPECT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL EASTERLY WAVES CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NO
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Gustywind]

Just an update from Trinidad. The wave we were all watching last week passed thru here in combine with an active ITCZ between Friday and yesterday. The end result was 1 death, massive flooding in the central plains, and 2 tornadoes.
I don't think it can be overstated - Our islands suffer loss even in the absence of developed tropical systems. I hope that my friends in Barbados and surrounding isles will keep safe during the pounding storms happening now. And let's keep vigilant as we look east.

Absolutely Firebird you're right, nice analysis as usual We should be vigilant in this period and do not let our guard down. Us in the Leewards are monitoring this twave with attention too as strong showers and isolated tstorms are forecasted by our Pro Met of Meteo-France in their latest weather forecast...

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

Tropics continue to heating up...with two features: Invest 99L and a twave crossing the Windwards today
[b]Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 10, 2009 2:12 pm ET

In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity with this system has waned a bit since yesterday. If this low can keep collocated showers and thunderstorm as it moves westward, a tropical depression may form over the next couple of days.

A tropical wave and an associated weak low pressure will pass through the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds will impact the islands through tonight. No development is imminent, however it will continue to be monitored.

The remainder of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet at this time.[/b]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 21N FROM MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N26W. SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THE
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
24W-28W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45/46W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE AXIS IS ORIENTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
LOCATED ALONG A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
THE LOW CLOUDS IS ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 57W-62W.


$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

Hey my carib friends...for those who lived in the Windwards don't forget to share us any infos from the weather as possible
Be safe.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST MON AUG 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 59 WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
BURST OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN PASS ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT BULK OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FA...AT LEAST A BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND INTERACT WITH TUTT TO OUR
NORTH AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED...THEN A SECOND AND STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR 47.5 WEST) IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY SHARP DRYING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

THEREAFTER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE WAVE BEHIND IT...AS SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INTERESTING POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENTS WITH THESE TWO FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STAY TUNED...ITS AUGUST IN THE TROPICS.

[Gustywind]

Convection is...expanding

[Gustywind]

Strange weather in Grenada given a correspondant of Grenada...
Strange weather today.
From: "Wild in Grenada" <Chris at wildingrenada.com>
Date: Mon, 10 Aug 2009 14:16:46 -0400

Hi all,

We have had some strange weather today. This morning I looked at the weather and all seemed fine down here in Grenada. There was some weather stretching from Barbados towards St Vincent and St Lucia.

Then I noticed some rain creeping towards us from the West and I do mean the West. It was preceded by a North Westerly wind. Looking at the satellite info, the blob over Barbados has grown and unfortunately for Barbados, it hasn't moved. But looking at their weather they have had nine hours of rain and thunder. The NHC has stated that this is now an area worth watching, but with less than 30% chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

It is a small low pressure imbedded in a topical wave. And looking at how the clouds have spread out over the last couple of hours I wouldn't be surprised if get more rain and thunder.

The other blob just SW of the Cape Verde's is still an area of concern. The centre is 14.5 N. 24.9W.

Now back to do some gardening before more rain comes.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/grenada.shtml

[Gustywind]

Given this sat pic, seems that the new wave emerging from Africa continues to gain muscled convection an be souther than Invest 99L... and appears fairly well organized, but we should wait for the "poof test" before