Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Home made sugar cookie high res NASA satellite visible loop.

[Ivanhater]

Euro develops this somewhat...

[cpdaman]

ivan H either my eyes aren't that great or somethin' but where does that map show the euro developing this at all out 72 hours.....it's supposed to move pretty much due west right?

[Aric Dunn]

better sat loop of it.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

clearly some surface circ and convection is not yet organized but its increases...

right now there is low shear 5kts ..



increasing low level convergence..

and there is some dry air still around but its seems to be doing better with it right now..

[Aric Dunn]

dont see to much inhibiting it at the moment.. only thing left to do is wait to see if more concentrated convection develops ..

[ROCK]

nice sat view...Man this one slipped under my radar. it does look like something at the surface. Low lat also...

[ROCK]

NHC just went to code yellow on this little guy...Nice call Aric

[Sanibel]

Re-Burst:

[Scorpion]

Should be Code Orange at 8

[ROCK]

Re-Burst:

this thing might blast off regardless of model support....wow...

[ROCK]

not much shear either.....look how the clouds fan out...man if this gets fully to the surface bombs away....

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to be getting better organized by the hour. Almost appears to have a WSW motion as well.

[ROCK]

Should be Code Orange at 8

keeps this up yes, funny how not one model sniffed this out if it truly does develope...looking good right now.....

[ROCK]

sst's not a problem...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[vacanechaser]

Should be Code Orange at 8

keeps this up yes, funny how not one model sniffed this out if it truly does develope...looking good right now.....

not so fast.. i noticed that the 12z GFDL picked up on it... 126hrs out...





See it just off the east coast of fla..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ivanhater]

Great loop to see the circulation...

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to be getting better organized by the hour. Almost appears to have a WSW motion as well.

yeah that may be do to the large broad circulation east of it ... not sure whats going to become of the 2 features.. but its interesting none the less.. its not moving very fast right now thats for sure that probably why its been able to get some sw inflow and allowed the convection to build.

[ROCK]

Should be Code Orange at 8

keeps this up yes, funny how not one model sniffed this out if it truly does develope...looking good right now.....

not so fast.. i noticed that the 12z GFDL picked up on it... 126hrs out...





See it just off the east coast of fla..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

hmm your right...it better start stair stepping soon to gain some lat if it wants to go to EC...

[wxman57]

Development chances are low (agree with NHC). Steering currents should take it nearly due west. Shear becomes an issue in the central and particularly the western Caribbean beyond 48 hours. A track into Honduras (remnants, by then) is most likely. Moderate northerly flow aloft from the Gulf to the Caribbean in 3-4 days should prevent any movement into the Gulf

[wxman57]

hmm your right...it better start stair stepping soon to gain some lat if it wants to go to EC...

That EC forecast is for the little vorticity center east of this disturbance. It's farther north.