Caribbean - Central America Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 102037
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 PM AST MON AUG 10 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS SAINT THOMAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX WERE 90
DEGREES. THE HIGH IN SAINT THOMAS WAS REACHED AT 10:46 AM WHILE
THE HIGH IN SAINT CROIX WAS REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON AT 2:13. WINDS
WERE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS WITH THE HELP OF THE EASTERLY TRADES FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SOME PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS.
OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...A WET PERIOD IS EXPECT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL EASTERLY WAVES CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NO
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 102037
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 PM AST MON AUG 10 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS SAINT THOMAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX WERE 90
DEGREES. THE HIGH IN SAINT THOMAS WAS REACHED AT 10:46 AM WHILE
THE HIGH IN SAINT CROIX WAS REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON AT 2:13. WINDS
WERE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS WITH THE HELP OF THE EASTERLY TRADES FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SOME PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS.
OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...A WET PERIOD IS EXPECT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL EASTERLY WAVES CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NO
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.
$$
0 likes
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
[b]TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009
THE WAVE ALONG 57W IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ IN SUPPORT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRENCH AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS
UNDERESTIMATED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THESE
ISLANDS...WHERE WE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ACROSS VENEZUELA IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-55MM DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO
AFFECT COLOMBIA ON DAY 03. OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT WILL FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-60MM...WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OVER GULF OF URABA/EJE CAFETERO AND SANTANDERES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: THE EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION MODELS MAINTAINS
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SHOWING MJO CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IMPROVING
THROUGH MID AUGUST...WITH CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH-FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS/
ENVIRONMENT...AS THEY NOW SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS ON
BOTH OCEANS. AT UPPER LEVELS A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES/OFF THE COAST OF THE
USA...WHICH IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A WEAK/NARROW RIDGE IS TO THEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. IF THIS
PATTERN PERSIST...TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ARE LIKELY TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THEY ARE ABOUT TO
REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE ONES FORMING TO THE WEST OF 45W ARE UP
FOR GRAB...AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO THREATEN THE ISLAND CHAIN-PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W IS TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
66-72 HRS. A TUTT TO THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH THIS WAVE TO
FORCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE FRENCH/LEEWARD
ISLANDS...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY 72-84 HRS THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO...WHERE WE EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
AS THE ITCZ REMAINS NORTH OF 10N...CONVECTION OVER THE GUIANAS
WILL LIMIT TO SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION.
THE WAVE ALONG 57W IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ IN SUPPORT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRENCH AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS
UNDERESTIMATED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THESE
ISLANDS...WHERE WE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ACROSS VENEZUELA IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-55MM DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO
AFFECT COLOMBIA ON DAY 03. OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT WILL FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-60MM...WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OVER GULF OF URABA/EJE CAFETERO AND SANTANDERES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: THE EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION MODELS MAINTAINS
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SHOWING MJO CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IMPROVING
THROUGH MID AUGUST...WITH CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH-FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS/
ENVIRONMENT...AS THEY NOW SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS ON
BOTH OCEANS. AT UPPER LEVELS A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES/OFF THE COAST OF THE
USA...WHICH IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A WEAK/NARROW RIDGE IS TO THEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. IF THIS
PATTERN PERSIST...TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ARE LIKELY TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THEY ARE ABOUT TO
REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE ONES FORMING TO THE WEST OF 45W ARE UP
FOR GRAB...AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO THREATEN THE ISLAND CHAIN-PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009
THE WAVE ALONG 57W IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ IN SUPPORT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRENCH AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS
UNDERESTIMATED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THESE
ISLANDS...WHERE WE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ACROSS VENEZUELA IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-55MM DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO
AFFECT COLOMBIA ON DAY 03. OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT WILL FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-60MM...WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OVER GULF OF URABA/EJE CAFETERO AND SANTANDERES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: THE EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION MODELS MAINTAINS
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SHOWING MJO CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IMPROVING
THROUGH MID AUGUST...WITH CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH-FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS/
ENVIRONMENT...AS THEY NOW SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS ON
BOTH OCEANS. AT UPPER LEVELS A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES/OFF THE COAST OF THE
USA...WHICH IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A WEAK/NARROW RIDGE IS TO THEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. IF THIS
PATTERN PERSIST...TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ARE LIKELY TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THEY ARE ABOUT TO
REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE ONES FORMING TO THE WEST OF 45W ARE UP
FOR GRAB...AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO THREATEN THE ISLAND CHAIN-PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W IS TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
66-72 HRS. A TUTT TO THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH THIS WAVE TO
FORCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE FRENCH/LEEWARD
ISLANDS...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY 72-84 HRS THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO...WHERE WE EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
AS THE ITCZ REMAINS NORTH OF 10N...CONVECTION OVER THE GUIANAS
WILL LIMIT TO SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION.
THE WAVE ALONG 57W IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ IN SUPPORT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRENCH AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS
UNDERESTIMATED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THESE
ISLANDS...WHERE WE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ACROSS VENEZUELA IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-55MM DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO
AFFECT COLOMBIA ON DAY 03. OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT WILL FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-60MM...WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OVER GULF OF URABA/EJE CAFETERO AND SANTANDERES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: THE EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION MODELS MAINTAINS
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SHOWING MJO CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IMPROVING
THROUGH MID AUGUST...WITH CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH-FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE STARTING TO REACT TO THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS/
ENVIRONMENT...AS THEY NOW SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS ON
BOTH OCEANS. AT UPPER LEVELS A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES/OFF THE COAST OF THE
USA...WHICH IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A WEAK/NARROW RIDGE IS TO THEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. IF THIS
PATTERN PERSIST...TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ARE LIKELY TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THEY ARE ABOUT TO
REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE ONES FORMING TO THE WEST OF 45W ARE UP
FOR GRAB...AS THEY ARE LIKELY TO THREATEN THE ISLAND CHAIN-PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
0 likes
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Hope that our Barbabos friends are OK and all those from the Windwards too.
Nothing to report here in Guadeloupe: hot hot hot weather today during our Cycling Tour of Guadeloupe
Winds are calm, but looks like showers will come tonight and bring a slight deterioration of the weather as the perturbed area on the Windwards is moving...
Latest from Barbados station:
Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Aug 10, 2009 - 05:30 PM EDTAug 10, 2009 - 04:30 PM CDTAug 10, 2009 - 03:30 PM MDTAug 10, 2009 - 02:30 PM PDTAug 10, 2009 - 01:30 PM ADTAug 10, 2009 - 12:30 PM HDT
2009.08.10 2130 UTC
Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TBPB 102130Z 02014KT 6000 -RA SCT010CB BKN100 26/25 Q1011 CB ALL QUADS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 5 PM (21) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NNE 16 light rain
4 PM (20) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) N 15 thunder in the vicinity
3 PM (19) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) N 8
2 PM (18) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) NNW 7 rain with thunder
1 PM (17) Aug 10 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 rain with thunder
Noon (16) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 13 rain with thunder
11 AM (15) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 12 rain with thunder
10 AM (14) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) N 6 light rain showers
9 AM (13) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Variable 3 rain with thunder
8 AM (12) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) E 3 rain with thunder
7 AM (11) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 6 rain with thunder
6 AM (10) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) heavy rain showers
5 AM (9) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 light rain showers
4 AM (8) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 7
3 AM (7) Aug 10 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 5
2 AM (6) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NE 8
1 AM (5) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 8
Midnight (4) Aug 10 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
11 PM (3) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ENE 8
10 PM (2) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 8
9 PM (1) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) NE 8
8 PM (0) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NE 7
7 PM (23) Aug 09 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
Oldest 6 PM (22) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 12
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nothing to report here in Guadeloupe: hot hot hot weather today during our Cycling Tour of Guadeloupe
Winds are calm, but looks like showers will come tonight and bring a slight deterioration of the weather as the perturbed area on the Windwards is moving...Latest from Barbados station:
Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Aug 10, 2009 - 05:30 PM EDTAug 10, 2009 - 04:30 PM CDTAug 10, 2009 - 03:30 PM MDTAug 10, 2009 - 02:30 PM PDTAug 10, 2009 - 01:30 PM ADTAug 10, 2009 - 12:30 PM HDT
2009.08.10 2130 UTC
Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TBPB 102130Z 02014KT 6000 -RA SCT010CB BKN100 26/25 Q1011 CB ALL QUADS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 5 PM (21) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NNE 16 light rain
4 PM (20) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) N 15 thunder in the vicinity
3 PM (19) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) N 8
2 PM (18) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) NNW 7 rain with thunder
1 PM (17) Aug 10 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 rain with thunder
Noon (16) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 13 rain with thunder
11 AM (15) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 12 rain with thunder
10 AM (14) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) N 6 light rain showers
9 AM (13) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Variable 3 rain with thunder
8 AM (12) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) E 3 rain with thunder
7 AM (11) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 6 rain with thunder
6 AM (10) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) heavy rain showers
5 AM (9) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 light rain showers
4 AM (8) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 7
3 AM (7) Aug 10 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 5
2 AM (6) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NE 8
1 AM (5) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 8
Midnight (4) Aug 10 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
11 PM (3) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ENE 8
10 PM (2) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 8
9 PM (1) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) NE 8
8 PM (0) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NE 7
7 PM (23) Aug 09 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
Oldest 6 PM (22) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 12
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 likes
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Martinica has requiered an yellow alert this afternoon 5PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms in association of a perturbed area moving on the Windwards islands
Here is the first special weather forecast
Synopsis[/u]:[/b]
Martinica stay away of the northern frang of a tropical wave, thus, the active part should affect especially the southern Windwards islands. Some showers and tstorms associated with this twave are near 100 kilometers of the island.
Weather forecast:
The first showers announcing deterioration of the weather are expected on the beginning of the night. Some passing showers sometimes strong and with embedded tstorms with a mix of periods of briefs accalmies are present all the night.
An improvement is expected during the morning.
Robust gustywinds are also present near the strongest squalls.
Amount of 60 to 80 millimeters of water are expected tommrow and a little more.
Some gusts near 32 to 38 kts accompanied the strongest squalls.
Consequences
Be prudent if you move away
Summary
Risk: moderate
Impact: moderate
Validity duration expected of this event: until tommorow mid morning.
Next weather forecast:
Tuesday 11th July 2009 near 6AM or before if an important deterioration is to come...
Here is the first special weather forecast
Synopsis[/u]:[/b]
Martinica stay away of the northern frang of a tropical wave, thus, the active part should affect especially the southern Windwards islands. Some showers and tstorms associated with this twave are near 100 kilometers of the island.
Weather forecast:
The first showers announcing deterioration of the weather are expected on the beginning of the night. Some passing showers sometimes strong and with embedded tstorms with a mix of periods of briefs accalmies are present all the night.
An improvement is expected during the morning.
Robust gustywinds are also present near the strongest squalls.
Amount of 60 to 80 millimeters of water are expected tommrow and a little more.
Some gusts near 32 to 38 kts accompanied the strongest squalls.
Consequences
Be prudent if you move away
Summary
Risk: moderate
Impact: moderate
Validity duration expected of this event: until tommorow mid morning.
Next weather forecast:
Tuesday 11th July 2009 near 6AM or before if an important deterioration is to come...
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Man, what a day! Rain, lightning and thunder on and off from about 5AM until evening. Once I was so rudely awoken by mother nature there was no going back to sleep for me 
This blob doesn't seem to want to move from over Barbados, but once it finally does, hopefully it doesn't pester the rest of the Antilles so~
Let's hope we have a peaceful night ahead of us.
This blob doesn't seem to want to move from over Barbados, but once it finally does, hopefully it doesn't pester the rest of the Antilles so~ Let's hope we have a peaceful night ahead of us.
0 likes
Re:
Gustywind wrote:Hope that our Barbabos friends are OK and all those from the Windwards too.
Nothing to report here in Guadeloupe: hot hot hot weather today during our Cycling Tour of Guadeloupe
Latest from Barbados station:
Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Aug 10, 2009 - 05:30 PM EDTAug 10, 2009 - 04:30 PM CDTAug 10, 2009 - 03:30 PM MDTAug 10, 2009 - 02:30 PM PDTAug 10, 2009 - 01:30 PM ADTAug 10, 2009 - 12:30 PM HDT
2009.08.10 2130 UTC
Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TBPB 102130Z 02014KT 6000 -RA SCT010CB BKN100 26/25 Q1011 CB ALL QUADS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 5 PM (21) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NNE 16 light rain
4 PM (20) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) N 15 thunder in the vicinity
3 PM (19) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) N 8
2 PM (18) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) NNW 7 rain with thunder
1 PM (17) Aug 10 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 rain with thunder
Noon (16) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 13 rain with thunder
11 AM (15) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 12 rain with thunder
10 AM (14) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) N 6 light rain showers
9 AM (13) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Variable 3 rain with thunder
8 AM (12) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) E 3 rain with thunder
7 AM (11) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 6 rain with thunder
6 AM (10) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) heavy rain showers
5 AM (9) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 light rain showers
4 AM (8) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 7
3 AM (7) Aug 10 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 5
2 AM (6) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NE 8
1 AM (5) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 8
Midnight (4) Aug 10 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
11 PM (3) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ENE 8
10 PM (2) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 8
9 PM (1) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) NE 8
8 PM (0) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NE 7
7 PM (23) Aug 09 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
Oldest 6 PM (22) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 12
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yep, we're fine. Thanks for your concern, Gustywind.
The weather summary above is just about right for my location. (My computer has been shut down for much of the day to protect it from surges because the lightning was quite severe at certain points, and so I was unable to update S2K of the situation as it unfolded.) A flood watch was issued at 2:00 p.m. and was to be in effect until 6:00 p.m. at which time it may have had to have been extended or even upgraded to a flood warning if conditions were to warrant it but I haven't heard any updates on the situation as yet.
IMO, the satellite presentations of this system looks an awful lot like a tropical depression in the making and this is the time of the hurricane when things start to "get cracking" so to speak. So just be on your guard, folks.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Re:
abajan wrote:Gustywind wrote:Hope that our Barbabos friends are OK and all those from the Windwards too.
Nothing to report here in Guadeloupe: hot hot hot weather today during our Cycling Tour of Guadeloupe
Latest from Barbados station:
Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Aug 10, 2009 - 05:30 PM EDTAug 10, 2009 - 04:30 PM CDTAug 10, 2009 - 03:30 PM MDTAug 10, 2009 - 02:30 PM PDTAug 10, 2009 - 01:30 PM ADTAug 10, 2009 - 12:30 PM HDT
2009.08.10 2130 UTC
Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TBPB 102130Z 02014KT 6000 -RA SCT010CB BKN100 26/25 Q1011 CB ALL QUADS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 5 PM (21) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NNE 16 light rain
4 PM (20) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) N 15 thunder in the vicinity
3 PM (19) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) N 8
2 PM (18) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) NNW 7 rain with thunder
1 PM (17) Aug 10 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 rain with thunder
Noon (16) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 13 rain with thunder
11 AM (15) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 12 rain with thunder
10 AM (14) Aug 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) N 6 light rain showers
9 AM (13) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Variable 3 rain with thunder
8 AM (12) Aug 10 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) E 3 rain with thunder
7 AM (11) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 6 rain with thunder
6 AM (10) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) heavy rain showers
5 AM (9) Aug 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 light rain showers
4 AM (8) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 7
3 AM (7) Aug 10 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 5
2 AM (6) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NE 8
1 AM (5) Aug 10 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 8
Midnight (4) Aug 10 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
11 PM (3) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ENE 8
10 PM (2) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 8
9 PM (1) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) NE 8
8 PM (0) Aug 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NE 7
7 PM (23) Aug 09 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
Oldest 6 PM (22) Aug 09 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 12
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yep, we're fine. Thanks for your concern, Gustywind.
The weather summary above is just about right for my location. (My computer has been shut down for much of the day to protect it from surges because the lightning was quite severe at certain points, and so I was unable to update S2K of the situation as it unfolded.) A flood watch was issued at 2:00 p.m. and was to be in effect until 6:00 p.m. at which time it may have had to have been extended or even upgraded to a flood warning if conditions were to warrant it but I haven't heard any updates on the situation as yet.
IMO, the satellite presentations of this system looks an awful lot like a tropical depression in the making and this is the time of the hurricane when things start to "get cracking" so to speak. So just be on your guard, folks.
waouw Abajan what a day in Barbados, seems that it was awesome?! Glad to see you here and you're fine that's ok . If i can post any infos as possible i always push my self Abajan to be informative:wink:. We're in the tent, it's a Carib family.In definitive...we should not let our guard in the Carib, as we're approaching dangeroulsy the peak of the season right now
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 102342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 10, 2009 5:14 pm ET
In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity with this system has waned a bit since yesterday. If this low can keep collocated showers and thunderstorm as it moves westward, a tropical depression may form over the next couple of days.
A tropical wave and an associated weak low pressure will pass through the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds will impact the islands overnight. Some slow development is possible.The remainder of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet at this time.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... ne_tracker
Aug. 10, 2009 5:14 pm ET
In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity with this system has waned a bit since yesterday. If this low can keep collocated showers and thunderstorm as it moves westward, a tropical depression may form over the next couple of days.
A tropical wave and an associated weak low pressure will pass through the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds will impact the islands overnight. Some slow development is possible.The remainder of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet at this time.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... ne_tracker
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 7N TO 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS...
HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N45W IS BRINGING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE THUS INHIBITING ANY DEEP
LAYERED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 23W-30W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND WELL DEFINED CURVATURE
IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 44W-49W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 59W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N AS
OBSERVATIONS AT BARBADOS HAVE BEEN REPORTING A NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE WAVE/LOW APPROACH FROM THE
EAST. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
57W-62W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DUE TO DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OR
CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 15N25W 11N29W 11N46W
9N49W 13N57W AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...ABC ISLANDS TO 12N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM 7N-14N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-39W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 49W-54W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
EXTENDS OVER NRN FLORIDA AND NRN GULF TO 91W. DRY AIR ALOFT
ACROSS N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 27N IS INHIBITING ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE NW GULF...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW
AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MOSTLY N OF 29N AND INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. VERY
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS IS
PROVIDING CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SW FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE SE GULF
WATERS...AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N AND
E OF 89W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALSO BEING
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE W CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 17N70W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO OVER PANAMA.
MOIST SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA. VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION E OF 74W WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG 12N IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS S OF 14N W OF 68W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A
SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
71W-78W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE SW
NORTH ATLC N OF 24N W OF 65W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY
SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 32N54W TO 22N64W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW
CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N49W TO 31N58W AND
CONTINUES INTO THE W ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH SW TO 27N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE SE AND EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 22N62W PRODUCING
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 59W-63W. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N75W AND A SECOND SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF
THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N37W TO
24N53W.
$$
HUFFMAN
AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 7N TO 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS...
HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N45W IS BRINGING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE THUS INHIBITING ANY DEEP
LAYERED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 23W-30W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND WELL DEFINED CURVATURE
IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 44W-49W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 59W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N AS
OBSERVATIONS AT BARBADOS HAVE BEEN REPORTING A NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE WAVE/LOW APPROACH FROM THE
EAST. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
57W-62W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DUE TO DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OR
CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 15N25W 11N29W 11N46W
9N49W 13N57W AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...ABC ISLANDS TO 12N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM 7N-14N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-39W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 49W-54W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
EXTENDS OVER NRN FLORIDA AND NRN GULF TO 91W. DRY AIR ALOFT
ACROSS N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 27N IS INHIBITING ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE NW GULF...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW
AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MOSTLY N OF 29N AND INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. VERY
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS IS
PROVIDING CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SW FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE SE GULF
WATERS...AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N AND
E OF 89W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALSO BEING
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE W CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 17N70W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO OVER PANAMA.
MOIST SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA. VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION E OF 74W WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG 12N IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS S OF 14N W OF 68W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A
SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
71W-78W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE SW
NORTH ATLC N OF 24N W OF 65W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY
SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 32N54W TO 22N64W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW
CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N49W TO 31N58W AND
CONTINUES INTO THE W ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH SW TO 27N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE SE AND EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 22N62W PRODUCING
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 59W-63W. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N75W AND A SECOND SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF
THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N37W TO
24N53W.
$$
HUFFMAN
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110055
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
855 PM AST MON AUG 10 2009
.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE SENT TO FORECAST THIS EVENING AS IT
APPEARS TO BE IN TRACK WITH LATEST MODEL AND SATELLITE GUIDANCE.
THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING...AND DRIER AIR
IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST...SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO GO
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TOMORROW...WITH
THE FOLLOWING WAVE APPROACHING 50 WEST EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY INFLUENCE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PUERTO RICO
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 11/02Z. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT LOCAL TAF SITES THEREAFTER TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFT 11/17Z INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PR WITH STREAMERS OFF THE USVI. WINDS IN LOWEST 25 KFT WILL BE
EASTERLY 20 KT OR LESS.
&&
FXCA62 TJSJ 110055
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
855 PM AST MON AUG 10 2009
.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE SENT TO FORECAST THIS EVENING AS IT
APPEARS TO BE IN TRACK WITH LATEST MODEL AND SATELLITE GUIDANCE.
THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING...AND DRIER AIR
IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST...SO EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO GO
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TOMORROW...WITH
THE FOLLOWING WAVE APPROACHING 50 WEST EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY INFLUENCE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PUERTO RICO
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 11/02Z. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT LOCAL TAF SITES THEREAFTER TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFT 11/17Z INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PR WITH STREAMERS OFF THE USVI. WINDS IN LOWEST 25 KFT WILL BE
EASTERLY 20 KT OR LESS.
&&
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good night Gusty and to the rest.Lets see what tommorow brings.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
cycloneye wrote:Good night Gusty and to the rest.Lets see what tommorow brings.
Tkanks my friend,
you too good job as usual Superman 
hope the very best to all! GOOD NIGHT
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145322
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Hey good morning.Look what we have.TD 2!
000
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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