ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 091545.GIF

Persistence is key but at the moment it looks great.

[David in FL]

May just be my noob eyes, but looks like its starting to get its strenght back. Also there are now 2 other areas that are yellow. Where can I go to see sat images over africa?

[HURAKAN]

May just be my noob eyes, but looks like its starting to get its strenght back. Also there are now 2 other areas that are yellow. Where can I go to see sat images over africa?

http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave images ...revealing a much better organized system with very distinct banding and the center and 28.3W 14.5N almost completly under that convection but sitting just on the eastern side of the blob. morning visible will allow the nhc to upgrade the system.

[Kerry04]

an upgrade soon? 11/0545 UTC 14.4N 27.7W T2.0/2.0 99L

[Cainer]

11/0545 UTC 14.4N 27.7W T2.0/2.0 99L

Depression classification from SSD. Also, a TCFA has been issued:



All in all, 99L is looking great. I'm thinking its more of a code red situation now; maybe even a depression at 8. Things are finally getting (a little) exciting in the Atlantic!

[Scorpion]

Amazing how things can change so quickly. Should be a TD very soon. I had written it off this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

an upgrade soon? 11/0545 UTC 14.4N 27.7W T2.0/2.0 99L

i was waiting for that update.. i would say upgrade as soon as some visible images start coming in... with 2.0 that would be a depression ... maybe 5am . or 11 am

[Brent]

WOW, I had totally stopped watching this system and look at it! I'm expecting a TD by 11am.

[hawkeh]

Looks like we have a TD finally

[cheezyWXguy]

WOW, I had totally stopped watching this system and look at it! I'm expecting a TD by 11am.

assuming it can maintain convection. persistence is the key.

[hawkeh]

Looks like we have TD02 officially.

[RattleMan]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992009_al022009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908110916
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 02, 2009, DB, O, 2009080912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL022009
AL, 02, 2009080812, , BEST, 0, 117N, 154W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2009080818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 167W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2009080900, , BEST, 0, 123N, 181W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2009080906, , BEST, 0, 128N, 194W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2009080912, , BEST, 0, 134N, 210W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2009080918, , BEST, 0, 139N, 223W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2009081000, , BEST, 0, 142N, 230W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2009081006, , BEST, 0, 143N, 240W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2009081012, , BEST, 0, 144N, 249W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2009081018, , BEST, 0, 144N, 257W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2009081100, , BEST, 0, 144N, 268W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2009081106, , BEST, 0, 144N, 279W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[wx247]

I knew there was a reason I was up early!

[RattleMan]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111000
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH









000
WTNT22 KNHC 110959
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1000 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W AT 11/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W AT 11/1000Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 27.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 28.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[abajan]

Yep, I was surprised to discover that when I just checked the Graphical Weather Outlook.

[Nimbus]

The storm has been real persistent and the environment is not getting any worse so it was time to upgrade. Either that or Ana might suddenly be declared by the NHC as an immaculate conception.

[cycloneye]

Wow,what a surprise awaking in my birthday with this.

[Nimbus]

No gulf threat but the CMC still has this south of 20 near the Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

There we go. It has been a while.