ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[wx247]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT

[jlauderdal]

Wow,what a surprise awaking in my birthday with this.

Feliz Cumpleaños

What would be really good for you is if we can get you an ANA for today. We have a ways to go for that but lets see what happens later.

[UpTheCreek]

Wow,what a surprise awaking in my birthday with this.

[jinftl]

Looks impressive...

[WmE]

Finally our second TC in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Lets post all the advisories in here.

WTNT32 KNHC 111000
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



]000
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[WmE]

Shear shouldn't be a problem for now.

[HUC]

Happy birthday,Luis,and good chase...

[Lurker]

my patience with this thing is about to reach zero...

also, some here will not like this, but this is an experimental scheme from University of Albany... we may need to wait a long while for our next cyclone in the Atlantic if this verifies

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html

I guess they need to tinker with this a little more. Conditions are looking better as evidence by td2.

[Lurker]

Looking good. I'm thinking red at 2am and maybe (probably?) a depression at 8am.

Great call.

[David in FL]

Ribbie Berg from NHC just said they are expecting this to be named sometime today, but also expect it to get picked up by a trough and fish on TWC moments ago.

[Shockwave]

Hello guys. I am new here and am loving this site and all the info. I just finished my second weather class in school, but only basics so far. Trying to keep up with the abb. I just moved to Jacksonville from TN and have never experienced a tropical storm. I am more of a tornado person. Been through enough of them. F4 tore up almost half my town on April 10th this year. It was horrible. Came about 150 yards from my house and killed a mother and baby up the road. It was very very very sad. I have always been interested in weather. Glad to be here. Been watching this and the other thread about 99. I have a couple questions. What is 99l, ulc, and llc? Also does anyone have any opinions on the little low forming in the carib. Thanks

Welcome! Begin from Middle TN myself and knowing exactly the event you are talking about, I'm glad your home was not affected the Good Friday outbreak.

TD two...glad to see some development finally, fish or no fish.

[David in FL]

Hello guys. I am new here and am loving this site and all the info. I just finished my second weather class in school, but only basics so far. Trying to keep up with the abb. I just moved to Jacksonville from TN and have never experienced a tropical storm. I am more of a tornado person. Been through enough of them. F4 tore up almost half my town on April 10th this year. It was horrible. Came about 150 yards from my house and killed a mother and baby up the road. It was very very very sad. I have always been interested in weather. Glad to be here. Been watching this and the other thread about 99. I have a couple questions. What is 99l, ulc, and llc? Also does anyone have any opinions on the little low forming in the carib. Thanks

Welcome! Begin from Middle TN myself and knowing exactly the event you are talking about, I'm glad your home was not affected the Good Friday outbreak.

TD two...glad to see some development finally, fish or no fish.

Glad to see another Middle Tennessean. Im from the boro, but I am sure you figured that. I miss it, but love it here. It felt like an atomic bomb or something went off. Sirens everywhere, and the traffic jams from people rubber necking ttrying to see the damage, it was all so surreal. Good to meet you!

[cycloneye]

Finnally we have the SSD floater!

[Gustywind]

HAPPY BIRTHDAY LUIS, or "SUPERMAN" i wish you the very best :)

Here is our SUPERMAN on this 11 th of August

[cycloneye]

Ok thanks to all for the congrats but as a saying says,(The show must go on) meaning to continue the discussions about this system.

[Shockwave]

Glad to see another Middle Tennessean. Im from the boro, but I am sure you figured that. I miss it, but love it here. It felt like an atomic bomb or something went off. Sirens everywhere, and the traffic jams from people rubber necking ttrying to see the damage, it was all so surreal. Good to meet you!

Same to you! Looks like you have moved out the Dixie Alley and now are in the Hurricane Alley. ha

[Derek Ortt]

Floater on it at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[MortisFL]

Floater on it at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

A little less impatient today?

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that that TD 2 is moving at quite a lazy forward pace, between 10 and 15 mph. It should pick up some forward speed by 48 hours according to the GFS 500 mb which shows an increasing easterly steering flow: