Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Hey good morning.Look what we have.TD 2!

000
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hello TD 2

[cycloneye]

[b]AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND AND MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TUTT NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SINK SOUTHWEST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CUTOFF
LOW FORMING ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BASED ON INFO FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI:
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50 WEST AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND DEVELOPMENT IF ANY IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW.

ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
NOW MOVING ACROSS WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO AFFECT THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF EARLY MORNING. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH THE FOLLOWING WAVE NEAR
50 WEST EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

FOR TODAY:LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES ARE FORECAST.

GFS...NAM12 AND ECMWF MODELS ALL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE DEVELOPING TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF THE AREA SHOULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END FOR THE
WEEK. EVEN AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE
UPPER LEVELS TO COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO AID SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY PUERTO RICO. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECT
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

LONG TERM...MODELS STILL AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST AS
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TONGUE ON ITCZ MOISTURE GETS LIFTED UP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH IS SO FAR
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND BRING INCLEMENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. AS ALWAYS...THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT...BUT EVEN SO WE ARE
GETTING CLOSER TO THE ACTIVE PART OF THE SEASON AND WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SITUATION WITH TIME.

[/b]

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends . TD 2 is there, and two areas near us are suspects. The first is on the Windwards islands and has just beginning to moving away but another is in Central Atlantic, and should race on the islands tommorow and Thursday... so copious programm for us after weeks of SAL and dry air.

[b]View of the Lesser Antilles with the moderate twave on the Windwards and behind another wave expected to reach the islands tommorow...[/b]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 110904
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE WINDS WERE MOSTLY CALM.

SKIES ACROSS THE TERRITORY WILL VARY FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BUT MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. AFTERWARD...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECT
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER 700
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS TODAY...WITH NO
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Gustywind]

Tropics are heating up, 3 areas have been mentionned in this TWO by the NHC so first time since the past season with my untrained eyes i tkink Note that the first area beetwen Africa and the Lesser Antilles has grown and right now it's TD 2, the next TWO will mention it as a "Special Advisory products have been issued at 6AM".

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

Speaking about the previous TWO here is the latest from 8AM

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THE REST OF TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS UPGRADED AT 11/1000 UTC CENTERED
NEAR 14.4N 28.6W OR 280 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
WEAK SHEAR OVER T.D.TWO...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE E WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 13N29W TO
16N30W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90
NM OF LINE FROM 18N48W TO 13N52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 60W/61W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AWAY
FROM BARBADOS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES AS
WELL AS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ACTUALLY LOCATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 15N24W 9N39W 12N54W ALONG
THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA TO OVER COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA INTO THE
E PACIFIC REGION. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-20W AND TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 24W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EXTENDS S
OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 90W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
25N94W TO THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 83W-93W. A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N82 ACROSS NE FLORIDA
OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
EXTENDING ALONG 21N91W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W BUT
IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER UPPER TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR THE N
BORDER OF GUATEMALA COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN E OF 83W WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY N OF 20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 13N78W. MOIST SW UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE
W CARIBBEAN TROUGH AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RIDGE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 81W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI AND JAMAICA. VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION E OF
80W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CAROLINA COAST
THAT COVERS THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N
W OF 58W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH AXIS THROUGH 32N50W THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 23N58W TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 31N59W TO
26N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH NEAR 31N75W AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N53W.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

FLOATER of TD 2
Looking pretty healthy

[cycloneye]

Thanks to all for the birthday congrats.

[Gustywind]

Felicia nearing Hawaii; TD 2 in the Atlantic
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 11, 2009 6:14 am ET

In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure located west of the Cape Verde Islands has become Tropical Depression 2 this morning. It is located about 280 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and has maximum sustained winds near 30 miles per hour. It could become a tropical storm tonight or early on Wednesday, in which case it would be named Ana. It is no threat to land over the next several days.

A tropical wave and an associated weak low pressure will pass through the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds will impact the islands overnight. Some slow development is possible.

Another tropical wave is located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... ne_tracker

[Gustywind]

Thanks to all for the birthday congrats.

No problem Luis it's a special day for a special personn called SUPERMAN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 110959
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1000 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W AT 11/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W AT 11/1000Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 27.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 28.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

LOOP OF THE AREAS OF CYCLOGENESIS

[msbee]

well, well, well. look what happened overnight

Barbara

[Gustywind]

well, well, well. look what happened overnight

Barbara

Yeah Barbara TD2 hope you're in shape today , we try to be informative as usual on this thread...WELL , WELL, WELL.

[msbee]

Thanks to all for the birthday congrats.

It is your birthday Luis?
I didn't know
Happy Birthday!
May you have many more wonderful years!





Barbara

[msbee]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111445
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.6 WEST OR ABOUT
350 MILES...560 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY
OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 29.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[tropicana]

TORNADO IN WEST CENTRAL TRINIDAD
Sun Aug 9 2009

this is a video shot on Sun August 9/2009 near noon ... im not sure if the "tornado" actually did touch the ground since its not clear with this footage, but it was a large funnel cloud for certain. There were reports of hail in parts of Central Trinidad as well.
Tornadoes are fairly rare events on trinidad due to its small size, but have been increasing in their appearances over the last number of years. Of all the Eastern Caribbean Islands, (apart from puerto rico) trinidad is the most likely for a tornado to form since its a relatively larger island to the others.
They normally form on the west central parts of the island, since this part is the flattest area of the island .
Generally, the "tornado season" in trinidad is the months of september and october since these are the hottest and most humid times of the year when trade winds are at their weakest, allowing temperatures to sky-rocket into the mid 90s (locally higher) on the west coast.

But this is great footage,
justin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kW_nfHkKQ9w

[Gustywind]

TORNADO IN WEST CENTRAL TRINIDAD
Sun Aug 9 2009

this is a video shot on Sun August 9/2009 near noon ... im not sure if the "tornado" actually did touch the ground since its not clear with this footage, but it was a large funnel cloud for certain. There were reports of hail in parts of Central Trinidad as well.
Tornadoes are fairly rare events on trinidad due to its small size, but have been increasing in their appearances over the last number of years. Of all the Eastern Caribbean Islands, (apart from puerto rico) trinidad is the most likely for a tornado to form since its a relatively larger island to the others.
They normally form on the west central parts of the island, since this part is the flattest area of the island .
Generally, the "tornado season" in trinidad is the months of september and october since these are the hottest and most humid times of the year when trade winds are at their weakest, allowing temperatures to sky-rocket into the mid 90s (locally higher) on the west coast.

But this is great footage,
justin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kW_nfHkKQ9w

Tkanks, good job Justin