Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[srainhoutx]

LIX (New Orleans) AFD is a good read...snipet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
450 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009


.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET TRICKY. THE TROPICAL
WAVES ALONG 61W AND 51W LOOK LIKE THEY EVENTUALLY PHASE OVER THE
CARRIBEAN. WE SHOULD SEE THESE FLARE UP WITH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP DEFINE THEM A LITTLE BETTER. BUT IT
IS THESE OR THE UNIFIED FEATURE OF THESE THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF.
THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKENING SHEAR ALOFT BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THIS IS WHERE WE FIND WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS INITIALIZING BETTER
IF AT ALL. ALL DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB YESTERDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
DOING A BETTER JOB THIS MORNING. WITH REGARDS TO THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT...THE GFS CREATES TWO CENTERS AND ELONGATES
THE THE UPPER HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DISTINCT CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS UPPER WINDS OF 10KT WHILE ACTUAL SPEEDS ARE 20KT. THE ECMWF
DOES A VERY GOOD JOB AT REPRESENTING THIS UPPER HIGH. THIS HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD WESTWARD BLOCKING ANY DISTURBANCE FROM
HEADING NORTH UNTIL IT FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE GULF. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EAST COAST AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...FORCING ANY FEATURE THAT
WOULD DEVELOP INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THEN NW GULF BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. OBVIOUSLY WITH A WEAKER RIDGE PATTERN FROM THE
GFS...THE FEATURE WOULD MOVE INTO FLA. SO ALL IN ALL...IT IS
SIMPLY SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING. HAVE NOT INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE ON THIS PACKAGE. TO BRING POP NUMBERS UP
MORE...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE AGREEMENT WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

Although nothing is expected to develop, we are seeing a bit of a pattern change and the Bermuda High looks to build E forcing activity in the general direction of the GOM. Something to keep an eye on IMHO.

[Portastorm]

Oh, you newbies ... don't mind Ed. He's probably being conservative on development ideas to cover his tracks.

You see last year in early September he declared that the western Gulf was closed for business. Shortly after that public statement on this forum, a mass of clouds got together and formed into something named "Ike" ... and then blossomed into a killer hurricane and smashed into Galveston and southeast Texas.

Folks here should keep posting and keep asking questions. That is what S2K has always been about.

[Dean4Storms]

Will be interesting to see what if anything this waves does once in the SE GOM. The Gulf has been very hostile so far this year with the trough digging so deep.

[jasons2k]

Folks here should keep posting and keep asking questions. That is what S2K has always been about.

Exactly - and any members not adhering to polite board decorum will be handled by the staff....

Thank you.

[KatDaddy]

Ed dont jinx us again! That was classic last year. Its all in good fun and discussions at S2K. I would not like to see a rapidly intensifying cyclone over the warm GOM waters with 24 hours more than Humberto or Charley.

[jasons2k]

BTW - it looks like the switch is about to be turned "on" with conditions becoming favorable for development in the Gulf. With the ridge setting-up over the SE US, folks in the W/NW/NC Gulf should be keeping a close watch. This will steer anything that develops around its periphery. Classic late summer setup for awhile...

[srainhoutx]

I'll again post Jeff Lindners morning e-mail in Talking Tropics as he gives a discussion of all the "players". Read past the TD 2 info for the synoptic setup Jasons has mentioned...

Second Tropical Depression of the 2009 Hurricane Season forms in the far eastern Atlantic.

Visible satellite images along with Quickscat overpass confirm that the strong tropical wave 280 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands has developed a well defined closed surface circulation and deep convection near/over the center to be upgraded to a tropical depression in a special 600am advisory package from NHC. A large convective explosion near/over the center early this morning has since waned some revealing a well defined low pressure center. The depression is moving westward toward the open Atlantic Ocean.

Track:

Model track guidance is split into two camps…but largely in decent agreement. A modest sub-tropical ridge to the north of TD # 2 will impart a general W to WNW motion for the next 48-72 hours before a weakness in the ridge around 50W results in a more WNW to NW motion. The tropical BAMS and HWRF model show a deeper system and resultant faster turn toward the NW prior to 50W while the GFDL, GFS, and CMC all show a weaker system and further westward track. Current NHC forecast track splits the difference and heads down nearly the middle of the guidance clustering with a slightly higher edge toward the more west/shallower solution. This is to the left of the HWRF and slightly right of the model clustering consensus.

Intensity:

The depression is located within fairly favorable conditions for slow development. Wind shear is light and the air surrounding the system moist. The only limiting factor is that the system is fairly far north in latitude and near the northern edge of warmer SST’s over the eastern Atl. SST’s warm toward the west and the depression will be crossing into warming waters as it moves westward. It should be noted that besides the HWRF, none of the respected global models really develop the system…which opens the door for a more westward track. It should also be noted that nearly all of the models greatly develop the wave moving off the African coast and plow this system due west toward the Caribbean Sea.

Local Weather:

Another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms today as air mass remains moist and unstable. With trigger temps. in the lower 90’s expect the seabreeze to get stuff going around or shortly after noon. Radar is fairly dry this morning…so coverage will likely be less than Sunday and Monday as 500mb ridge builds over the area.

Large scale pattern change looks even more pronounced today than yesterday to support an even better chance of rain starting as earlier as Thursday and on into the weekend. Upper trough will drop southward and cut-off over the north-central Gulf coast and then move west as upper ridge builds into northern Mexico and the southern Rockies. Models remain at odds if the upper trough remains open or closes off into an upper low. Either way favorable air column cooling and increasing moisture point toward increased daily seabreeze events. Additionally, a frontal boundary will approach from the N and NE with large convective complex to our north sending outflow boundaries our way during the afternoon/evening hours. Will go with 40% on Thursday and this may be on the low side and then 30-40% into the weekend.

Sub-tropical ridge builds across FL into the eastern Gulf next week with central and western Gulf of Mexico open to tropical wave train influx in an increasingly tropically active Atlantic.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As I said before, I'd have no problem with a quick moving "Edouard" type storm watering my lawn and moving out.


Someone complained about howling winds, and then someone else dittoed and said Ike's salt water killed trees, but I specifically mentioned a 40 mph or so tropical storm that didn't stop and Fay or Allison anybody.


I am watering a lot this Summer, and my seddless satsuma orange tree is full of thirsty fruit...

[TexWx]

0-12 for the Texas Longhorns

Never.

But, back on topic.
I'd like a little 40mph storm....

[Ed Mahmoud]

To make this thread more interesting, looks like NAM takes disturbance East of the islands across Puerto Rico in 2 days, and weakens it over Hispaniola in less than 3.5 days.



Based on 500 mb fields, this would head for Florida, 700 mb fields would be South of Florida, potentially heading for the Gulf. All depends on what Hispaniola does to it.


OK, amateur opinion AND it is based on the NAM.


No worries, yet.

[wxman57]

So, is this the 2nd thread on the disturbance in the central Tropical Atlantic, as that's the feature which could reach the eastern Gulf late this weekend? If so, then why 2 threads?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think this thread pre-dates the wave well East of the islands thread...

Was reading our our local AFD this morning and came across this in our long range discussion...

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE FCAST WILL HINGE
GREATLY ON WHAT THE TROUGH AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED DOES
AND GREATLY ON WHERE THEY ARE LOCATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE UPPER SHEAR TO
WEAKEN DOWN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF. WHY DOES THIS
CAUSE CONCERN? B/C THE DEEP MOISTURE AND OLD SFC TROUGH AXIS ARE
SUPPOSED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ANOTHER...BUT
THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
GULF. WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN A LOT OF ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT IT IS
HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO BOTHERS ME BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CHANGE THE 6-7TH DAY OF THE FCAST.

Went and searched other area's long range forecast around the gulf but found nothing else that even mentions the slightest idea of anything tropical developing.

Is there a true cause for concern or is this forecaster trying to find any little chance of some kind of activity to talk about?

[srainhoutx]

This thread was started on the 9th in regards to the wave in the Central Atlantic at that time and the various input from WFO's in the GOM region. Then the Central Atlantic thread popped up yesterday. Oh well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

:uarrow: This thread was started on the 9th in regards to the wave in the Central Atlantic at that time and the various input from WFO's in the GOM region. Then the Central Atlantic thread popped up yesterday. Oh well.

That was what I was trying to say, but the quote doesn't include time/data stamps.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Per GFS through 78 hours, (I watched the loop) this wave well East of the islands weakens further, until it is barely detectable in 850 mb wind/vorticity fields between Cuba and the Bahamas.


Meanwhile, TD #2 weakens slowly, while next African system starts looking large and in charge.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Food court for lunch, than the JB video, and if he doesn't mention anything about the Gulf, it is safe to assume all is well.


Back in 15...

[KatDaddy]

Just watched the Joe B video. Summary below:

He believes the wave East of the Windwards is GOM bound. The TW over the Windwards will die over the S Caribbean, and TD 2 wont strengthen. The wave moving off the African coast will develop.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No elaboration at all, but wave well East of L. Antilles is a potential Gulf threat per JB.

He was more excited about TD #02L, as a role player, a pulling guard that blasts a hole through the dry air, so the running back soon to come off Africa has an open field to possibly threaten the East Coast in about two weeks. No glory for TD #2, but it is a team player.


The ~2 week GFS- exact location bounces some, but four runs in a row, as JB showed, a powerful system, near or off the East Coast.

[Stormcenter]

It continues to be a "quiet" season.

Just watched the Joe B video. Summary below:

He believes the wave East of the Windwards is GOM bound. The TW over the Windwards will die over the S Caribbean, and TD 2 wont strengthen. The wave moving off the African coast will develop.

[Ptarmigan]

There is a cool front coming south towards. I wonder if it will pass and go over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Alicia formed that way.