Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[KWT]

UKMO does develop it actually cycloneye but TD2 absorbs it quite early on!

[drezee]

There is a good consensus among the global models but not a unaninous one.

ECMWF=Yes
CMC=Yes
GFS=Yes
GFDL=Yes
NOGAPS=No
UKMET=No

Euro gets two votes in my book....and the Nogaps doesn't count...so it's unanimous!!!

[cycloneye]

Why NOGAPS doesnt count?

[drezee]

Why NOGAPS doesnt count?

Nogaps is not a very skilled tropical model. It is often an outlier and has very low resolution. I was halfway making a joke, but relying on the Nogaps would drive a sane man batty.

[Ivanhater]

[jrpsuper123]

this is very interesting video from accuweather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... g%20Active

[caribsue]

Holy Moley.... looks like us here in Barbados and the surrounding islands need to watch this one very closely

[lonelymike]

this is very interesting video from accuweather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... g%20Active

Lemme guess. More Accu hype and panic?? They're worse than TWC at times

[Ed Mahmoud]

yowza...

[gboudx]

this is very interesting video from accuweather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... g%20Active

Lemme guess. More Accu hype and panic??

Nope. But interesting. Would be a mere 3 min waste of time if you choose to watch it.

[lonelymike]

this is very interesting video from accuweather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... g%20Active

Lemme guess. More Accu hype and panic??

Nope. But interesting. Would be a mere 3 min waste of time if you choose to watch it.

Three minutes turns into three years with the slow dial up

[Stormcenter]

yowza...

[cpdaman]

pretty solid 3 min vid......Joe b not surpised if next 15 days have more activity then the next 30 .....interesting statment.


anyhow that EURO model Ed M.....sorta reminds me of a storm that scared the pants off FL in 99' then hit N.C........but i wonder what the SST's this time of year (mid august) can support....is there enough TCHP for a monsta

[gboudx]

Nope. But interesting. Would be a mere 3 min waste of time if you choose to watch it.

Three minutes turns into three years with the slow dial up

Quick recap is that it's JB talking about TD#2 acting as a fullback to block out the dry air and help the big wave off the coast to develop. Ed alluded to this part already. He said that Fla and the East coast need to pay attention to both of these. He also said that the basin is modeled to transition to sinking air at the heart of the hurricane season, so there will probably be less activity from late Aug to mid Sept.

[lonelymike]

Thanks for the recap GB!

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS rolling in..24 hours low forms

[Ivanhater]

36 hours..multiple lows

[Ivanhater]

48 hours..still a couple of lows

[Wx_Warrior]

I prefer the 0z and 12z GFS.

[Ivanhater]

66 hours.."Bill" wave getting stronger, secondary low still hanging around