Disturbance East of Bahamas

[wxman57]

It appears that this is the 2nd thread on the possible Gulf development (from this wave). So I'll post in (and follow) the other thread. No need for 2 threads on the same feature. Kill one or the other.

[MWatkins]

It appears that this is the 2nd thread on the possible Gulf development (from this wave). So I'll post in (and follow) the other thread. No need for 2 threads on the same feature. Kill one or the other.

I think it would be less preferable to discuss and classify areas of interest based on where the threat may occur one day in the future. I think putting the discussion about pre-TD2 in a thread titled "Possible Bermuda Threat Next Week" or something like that would be hard for anyone that didn't live in the Bermuda to follow.

So if they are going to kill a thread, I would kill the one that addresses where this wave may go one day ("Possible Gulf Development") and leave the one that addresses the CURRENT location of the web.

If it were up to me, I wouldn't kill either one because the Gulf thread isn't just focused on this wave either. There could be many sources of "Possible Gulf Development Next Week".

I suppose you can follow whatever post set you want, have fun!

MW

[cycloneye]

Both threads will remain open for replies as mother nature will rule about which system if any may go to the Gulf of Mexico.This thread from the start has been focused on the wave in the Central Atlantic,while the thread about the possible GOM development dont focus on one system in particular,but in general terms.

[Ivanhater]

60 hour NAM has the system crossing Puerto Rico

[Ivanhater]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 11, 2009 5:07 pm ET

Low pressure located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This area will be monitored and some slow development could occur if shower and thunderstorm activity becomes more persistent and better organized. For now, expect some showers in the northern and central Antilles in a few days.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[wxman57]

Both threads will remain open for replies as mother nature will rule about which system if any may go to the Gulf of Mexico.This thread from the start has been focused on the wave in the Central Atlantic,while the thread about the possible GOM development dont focus on one system in particular,but in general terms.

But from the start, Luis, the Gulf development thread was also about this central Atlantic wave moving into the Gulf and developing. So both threads were started about the same threat. I'm not going to post the same thing in 2 separate threads (or read 2 separate discussions on the same wave), so I'll focus on the east Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

Both threads will remain open for replies as mother nature will rule about which system if any may go to the Gulf of Mexico.This thread from the start has been focused on the wave in the Central Atlantic,while the thread about the possible GOM development dont focus on one system in particular,but in general terms.

But from the start, Luis, the Gulf development thread was also about this central Atlantic wave moving into the Gulf and developing. So both threads were started about the same threat. I'm not going to post the same thing in 2 separate threads (or read 2 separate discussions on the same wave), so I'll focus on the east Atlantic.

Wxman, what are your thoughts on this Central Atlantic wave, any realistic chance this develops?

[colbroe]

I can that this wave east of the islands will explode similar to what happened to the last wave that passed on Monday .At that time most of the convective activity was to the North of Barbados and in a matter of hours it just exploded with Barbados experiencing some very severe weather .

What is also noticeable is that most of the waves start out to the North of the islands and end up to the south , that is not a comforting thought

[cpdaman]

i for one don't mind going to the other thread to read wxman's latest thoughts......it only takes the click of a mouse...

well since it is in the central atlantic now and will effect hispanola... cuba....poss. bahamas and likely s.FL as a "disturbance prior to the gulf" i think it would be very confusing to consolidate a thread into somewhere where something might be in a week even though that would appear the most likely spot for it to be the strongest down the line

[tolakram]

Merge the threads so the gulf clan will calm down.

[CourierPR]

I say the thread title should denote present location of a system, not possible future location. Eliminate that Gulf thread for now.

[HURAKAN]

259
ABNT20 KNHC 112331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DECREASED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Accuweather

I cant believe people are getting paid millions of dollars a year to state the obvouis. I could of forecasted that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Major league poofagenesis judging from IR satellite imagery.

Blobolysis?

[HouTXmetro]

Yep, nothing to see here... moving right along.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Depressions in Atlantic, Pacific
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 12, 2009 6:16 am ET

ATLANTIC

Elsewhere, a tropical wave located about 420 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is producing only a few showers and thunderstorms. This area will be monitored and some slow development could occur if shower and thunderstorm activity becomes more persistent and better organized. For now, expect some showers in the northern and central Antilles in a few days.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/



Expect a mix of numerous showers and isolated tstorms today in Guadeloupe given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France...





AXNT20 KNHC 121055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO THE W IN THE E CARIBBEAN AS OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-17N.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN