Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[lonelymike]

GFS is garbage half the time anyways. Euro is much more accurate IMO

[KWT]

ECM is probably best at tracks when it has an actual system formed but till then its starting position can be suspect, when it comes to unformed systems the GFS is probably better with tracks.

I think the best idea is to look at all of the models, try and learn the bias of each model then make an assumption from there.

[brunota2003]

GFS is garbage half the time anyways. Euro is much more accurate IMO

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but...

The GFS is not meant to be accurate with the intensities of "phantom" storms. It is a synoptic model designed to show what the air currents (ie high pressure ridges and weaknesses/cold fronts, and possible future lows) are going to be like over the course of it's run. So while it may produce phantom storms, or lose storms or develop them extremely rapidly, it shows where the storm "could" go, versus being more accurate on the intensity. That is why you have other models to compare it to.

[jrpsuper123]

I THINK THE AXIS OF THAT TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL IN AFRICA AND HAS A LOW IN THAT AREA AND THE PRESSURE OF THAT LOW IS A 1,005 MB .
I HAVE A FRIEND IS meteorologist IN SANJUAN and SHE told me THAT…..

[Gustywind]

I THINK THE AXIS OF THAT TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL IN AFRICA AND HAS A LOW IN THAT AREA AND THE PRESSURE OF THAT LOW IS A 1,005 MB .
I HAVE A FRIEND IS meteorologist IN SANJUAN and SHE told me THAT…..

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, I think that is the wave that is depicted becoming the monster Gustywind!

[KWT]

The deep convection that is flaring up is probably just classic eveing storms that flare up overland in the tropical airmasses. Also its too far north to be the area the models are developing unless it heads WSW over the next 12hrs.

As others have said though the wave axis may well still be overland at the moment, there is a line of convection that is leaving Africa and thats probably the wave axis.

I suspect the whole region leaving Africa will be worth watching...I think thats why the GFS tries to develop a second system, probably from the deep convection over Africa still.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Yep, I think that is the wave that is depicted becoming the monster Gustywind!

for a monster it's an euphemisma Dean4Storms i would not call me Guadeloupe when i see this thing

[Gustywind]

The deep convection that is flaring up is probably just classic eveing storms that flare up overland in the tropical airmasses. Also its too far north to be the area the models are developing unless it heads WSW over the next 12hrs.

As others have said though the wave axis may well still be overland at the moment, there is a line of convection that is leaving Africa and thats probably the wave axis.

I suspect the whole region leaving Africa will be worth watching...I think thats why the GFS tries to develop a second system, probably from the deep convection over Africa still.

Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 11, 2009 5:07 pm ET

Southeast of T.D. 2, an area of low pressure will emerge off the Africa coast in the next 24 hours. This system will also be monitored for possible development.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the models monster.

[KWT]

If that is the system then the models are way too far south with what they are trying to develop which will make a big difference down the line. Of course thats not to say the system won't make a dip WSW or the low won't form on the southern end.

[Ivanhater]

If that is the system then the models are way too far south with what they are trying to develop which will make a big difference down the line. Of course thats not to say the system won't make a dip WSW or the low won't form on the southern end.

If you look at the GFS, it shows the northern blob breaking off and dissipating..you can already see spin off the coast down south

12 hours


24 hours

[RL3AO]

Just because the convection is that far north doesn't mean the wave/vorticity is that far north.

[KWT]

Yeah true Ivanhater ther eis a spin quite far south around 15W. The next 12-24hrs should be quite interesting, should see an invest by tomorrow eveing I'd imagine.

[ronjon]

yeah looks like a broad circulation already occuring in the southern portion of the wave - the added convection to the north may just consolidate to form one big bowling ball. Since GFS and ECM really deepen this system, its almost a given we'll see a hurricane from this long tracker.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS is garbage half the time anyways. Euro is much more accurate IMO

They are ALL garbage until they start reinforcing each other. Even the Euro sucks with intensity and track. Not sure why the GFS hate. GFS scenario has panned out so far if you look back at last weeks runs showing 2 systems. I understand some of its scenarios are silly but GFS range is extreme thats why the wierdness after 72 hours. Forget anything after 72

[KWT]

yeah looks like a broad circulation already occuring in the southern portion of the wave - the added convection to the north may just consolidate to form one big bowling ball. Since GFS and ECM really deepen this system, its almost a given we'll see a hurricane from this long tracker.

Yep on Cycloneye its quite obvious around 10N/15W. Will be interesting to see how the convection interacts, it may in the short term prevent development and maybe even try and develop its own circulation if it hangs around too long.

More likely though will be for that convection to die off and a new region focus where that spin is over the next 12-24hrs.

[gatorcane]

as far as what you are seeing coming off Africa now, I bet you what will happen is that big blob poofs some moving off and another big blob blows up with rotation farther south as the GFS projects. In other words we'll wait about 2 days or so to see where things consolidate. If you look at cycloneyes motion pic, you can see a broad mid-level spin south of the blob already. That is where to focus. I expect convection to start wrapping around that area.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

circulation is already offshore looks like. And its moving alot faster than TD-2. Wonder if there will be some sort of interaction.

[AnnularCane]

Here comes the models monster.

Look out behind you, TD2!