Global model runs discussion

[ronjon]

Gusty, I think you mean Bill is an orphan that likes deep sea fishing.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS is now bringing monster through Carib. and up into the GOM into Florida!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/mode ... es/gfs_slp

Looks very similar to the track of Donna in 1960.

More similiar to Dennis 2005 imo

[Derek Ortt]

yes, 16 days is pure fantasyland

[SEASON_CANCELED]

yes, 16 days is pure fantasyland

Quoted for the truth.

The one's that define seasons are ones that the models dont see till the writing is on the wall

[Gustywind]

Gusty, I think you mean Bill is an orphan that likes deep sea fishing.

Yeah i prefer...tkanks Ronjon if not i give this treatment to BILL

[cycloneye]

GFS at 10 days maximun would be more acceptable,instead of have the 16 day thing.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS at 10 days maximun would be more acceptable.

Maybe if it was in a closed area. The atlantic....just to many variables even for a 5 day forecast. Imo

[Stormcenter]

Why am I not worried....maybe because it's the GFS.

[cycloneye]

Why am I not worried....maybe because it's the GFS.

But the ECMWF the best model in 2009 IMO has a strong hurricane.

[ROCK]

Why am I not worried....maybe because it's the GFS.

But the ECMWF the best model in 2009 IMO has a strong hurricane.

No doubt Ceye......EURO trumped all models last year with "he who shall not be named"..

[ROCK]

0z GFS run coming in.....I am sensing a east of EC run.....real close to ANA and might follow her.....just a hunch...

[PTrackerLA]

Appears to be making a beeline for the Lesser Antilles at 120 hrs. Look at the ridge to the north:

[ROCK]

Appears to be making a beeline for the Lesser Antilles at 120 hrs. Look at the ridge to the north:

Agreed... following ANA which opens up...stair stepping pretty good also...

[PTrackerLA]

Caribbean bound and looking like an intense hurricane after raking the islands:

[ROCK]

if I lived in PR this run would make me nervous.....

[cycloneye]

if I lived in PR this run would make me nervous.....

Is insane,not you but what it shows.

[Brent]

if I lived in PR this run would make me nervous.....

Indeed:

[Wx_Warrior]

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry if I offend anyone but come on now we are talking about model runs concerning a system that hasn't even formed. How many times did we have these
types of runs last season and nothing happened? Does anyone remember the runs we had last year that had Cat. 5 storms nailing New Orleans and Miami?

[Wx_Warrior]