Funktop loop suggests center is just East of big ball of convection, so it appears to still be feeling some Easterly shear.
In my totally unofficial opinion, a 35 or 40 knot storm.
ETA: IR2 was excellent for tracking low clouds at night. It wasn't broken. But then they fixed it, and now I can't follow low clouds with IR2. Change for changes sake, not always good.
ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
guys regarding intensity forecasts one thing i have noticed is that in a lot of cases it is pretty unreliable at least until a storm reaches maturity.
next why wouldn't this become a hurricane in say the next couple days (72hrs) .....with low shear and SST about 28C....is dry air the issue..seems like there is a moist enough envelope pushing ahead with it and low enough shear to keep it like this.....it seems like it is rather small and these things tend to be able to wrap up faster than the monsters
not saying it is a given ....but really why not....models are pretty poor at timing initial intensity process many times that i recall...someone set me straight
next why wouldn't this become a hurricane in say the next couple days (72hrs) .....with low shear and SST about 28C....is dry air the issue..seems like there is a moist enough envelope pushing ahead with it and low enough shear to keep it like this.....it seems like it is rather small and these things tend to be able to wrap up faster than the monsters
not saying it is a given ....but really why not....models are pretty poor at timing initial intensity process many times that i recall...someone set me straight
Last edited by cpdaman on Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt
Re: Re:
cpdaman wrote:RL3AO wrote:Just a thought. As the Atlantic is picking up and more and more people come here (many who don't know as many things about the tropics as others), I think we should take it easy with those ADT numbers. Especially posting them in large and bold font.
Some people might see that and think thats how strong the storm really is. They might not understand that ADT numbers can be way off, especially on systems with no eye.
in all seriousness there are millions of people who get their weather from either TWC....the local news...radio....or accuweather
there are about what... a thousand that come here for that technical weather stuff when things ramp up....which is a very small fraction so i don't think it is necessary .....the bigger reason is that when a storm actually becomes something stronger and threatens the general public the numbers they will look at will be the NHC updates which are basic....we are weather geeks ...this is the place to post all the other data imo. Newbies can post question in a thread for answers and if anything we could dedicate a bit more attention toward answering those in a timely fashion.
TD 2 looking good IMO but i really can't tell much without a quikscat regarding the location of the low ....would gues it is toward east edge of deeper convection.
there are more than a thousand here during serious threats... and most are not the weather geeks
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gatorcane
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If it were me I would not pull the trigger yet. I would consider pulling it tomorrow after some vis shots. This convection we are seeing could easily be a pulse that does not sustain.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
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486
WTNT22 KNHC 120251
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 31.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 31.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 31.1W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.8N 35.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.9N 37.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.2N 40.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 31.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
261
WTNT32 KNHC 120252
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST OR ABOUT
475 MILES...765 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 31.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
697
WTNT42 KNHC 120300
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE
CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS. EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...A RECENTLY-
RECEIVED ASCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 30 KT. EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-
DEFINED...THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
LOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/11...AS THE
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE HWRF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE
MODEL SUITE...IMMEDIATELY TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD PATH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SPREAD OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SMALL...EVEN IN THE LONGER
RANGE...WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE HWRF SOLUTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH. THIS INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. LATER
IN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A
PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WITHIN THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING DAY 4. SHOULD THE CYCLONE TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND. THEN
AGAIN...SHOULD THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...THE
SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.8N 31.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.8N 35.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 37.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.2N 40.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 45.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 51.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 56.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
WTNT22 KNHC 120251
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 31.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 31.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 31.1W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.8N 35.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.9N 37.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.2N 40.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 31.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
261
WTNT32 KNHC 120252
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST OR ABOUT
475 MILES...765 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 31.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
697
WTNT42 KNHC 120300
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE
CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS. EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...A RECENTLY-
RECEIVED ASCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 30 KT. EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-
DEFINED...THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
LOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/11...AS THE
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE HWRF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE
MODEL SUITE...IMMEDIATELY TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD PATH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SPREAD OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SMALL...EVEN IN THE LONGER
RANGE...WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE HWRF SOLUTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH. THIS INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. LATER
IN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A
PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WITHIN THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING DAY 4. SHOULD THE CYCLONE TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND. THEN
AGAIN...SHOULD THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...THE
SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.8N 31.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.8N 35.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 37.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.2N 40.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 45.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 51.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 56.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
really how many 5,000.......compared to 10,000,000 watching other outlets.....i love this site and i love the mets that post here but really ...i think my post to just pay more attention to newbie question's that may arise is sensible compared to nitpicking about censoring certain stats that can be bolded....but hey i am just a lowly member putting in my 2 cents....i will go back to just reading the threads.
perhaps you have an opinon on my intensity Q
30 knots ....morning update will have the real info
perhaps you have an opinon on my intensity Q
30 knots ....morning update will have the real info
Last edited by cpdaman on Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
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AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.
Based on this advisory looks like it will be Ana tomorrow.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
cpdaman wrote:really how many 5,000.......compared to 10,000,000 watching other outlets.....i love this site and i love the mets that post here but really ...i think my post to just pay more attention to newbie question's that may arise is sensible compared to nitpicking about censoring certain stats that can be bolded....but hey i am just a lowly member putting in my 2 cents....i will go back to just reading the threads.
perhaps you have an opinon on my intensity Q
please repost your intensity q... or ask the question in tropical analysis in the latest forecast thread where I can see the questions far easier as they are not buried
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Re:
tgenius wrote:If the d min doesn't get it, I think we will all be waking up to Ana in the morning...
obviously, alot can change, but it *looks* like it.
D-min is in the evening. We are approaching d-max right now.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
cpdaman wrote:guys regarding intensity forecasts one thing i have noticed is that in a lot of cases it is pretty unreliable at least until a storm reaches maturity.
next why wouldn't this become a hurricane in say the next couple days (72hrs) .....with low shear and SST about 28C....is dry air the issue..seems like there is a moist enough envelope pushing ahead with it and low enough shear to keep it like this.....it seems like it is rather small and these things tend to be able to wrap up faster than the monsters
not saying it is a given ....but really why not....models are pretty poor at timing initial intensity process many times that i recall...someone set me straight
reposting in response to derek's reply....so what do you say .....what is the limiting factor with a rather compact system like this......isn't intensity here kinda up in the air
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
You don't need me to tell you the switch just flipped and this one should be a go from now on.
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Annie Oakley
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JonathanBelles
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Derek Ortt
Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
cpdaman wrote:cpdaman wrote:guys regarding intensity forecasts one thing i have noticed is that in a lot of cases it is pretty unreliable at least until a storm reaches maturity.
next why wouldn't this become a hurricane in say the next couple days (72hrs) .....with low shear and SST about 28C....is dry air the issue..seems like there is a moist enough envelope pushing ahead with it and low enough shear to keep it like this.....it seems like it is rather small and these things tend to be able to wrap up faster than the monsters
not saying it is a given ....but really why not....models are pretty poor at timing initial intensity process many times that i recall...someone set me straight
reposting in response to derek's reply....so what do you say .....what is the limiting factor with a rather compact system like this......isn't intensity here kinda up in the air
I'd say intensity forecasts are unreliable until the model at least has the large scale conditions correct. The precise structure of the vortex is also important
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