Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is a cool front coming south towards. I wonder if it will pass and go over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Alicia formed that way.

A cold front (learned this from watching JB, whom I am not related to, not even an Italian-American) in the Northern Gulf, even if it doesn't develop itself, can block the strong onshore flow into Texas caused by the heating in the deserts. This reduces the surface divergence in the Gulf, making conditions more favorable for development if a wave enters.

[Stormcenter]

This IMO is the like mostly likely scenario for tropical troubles this season for GOM
residents. I believe that is usually the case during a El Nino season.

There is a cool front coming south towards. I wonder if it will pass and go over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Alicia formed that way.

A cold front (learned this from watching JB, whom I am not related to, not even an Italian-American) in the Northern Gulf, even if it doesn't develop itself, can block the strong onshore flow into Texas caused by the heating in the deserts. This reduces the surface divergence in the Gulf, making conditions more favorable for development if a wave enters.

[TexWx]

Question.
Basically i don't really have time at work to look it up, but...
what are the pressures looking like in the southeastern gulf of mexico.

I'm noticing a bit of spin down there sw of fla.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

[wxman57]

Question.
Basically i don't really have time at work to look it up, but...
what are the pressures looking like in the southeastern gulf of mexico.

I'm noticing a bit of spin down there sw of fla.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

Hint: Don't use IR satellite imagery to located low-level circulation. What you're seeing is a weak upper-level low in the area. Surface pressures there are in the 1016-1018mb range - quite high. Use high-res visible imagery to locate surface rotation.

[TexWx]

Yeah I know about not using IR for that.... just a little lazy..

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

[SETXWXLADY]

Hmmm...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

Yes Been seeing that. Its on this one finally.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Disturbing.

GFDL may be picking up on it as well.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009081200-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Jagno]

Okay................. please explain in simple English what is being seen as a potential threat exactly. Enough with the Hmmmmmm, Disturbing, Potential Gulf Threat and pictures of little round blobs coming right through my front door with no other explanations. I'm not as skilled as you folks but have been around here for a while and do learn a little more each year. Just give me the "tropical outlook for dummies" version please.

[paintplaye]

It is the cmc... Don't think about it too much yet. If other models start following, then we will have something to worry about. Until then just watch.

[Ivanhater]

It is the cmc... Don't think about it too much yet. If other models start following, then we will have something to worry about. Until then just watch.

Yeah, except the GFDL develops it (even in the outer grid) and the Euro

[paintplaye]

It is the cmc... Don't think about it too much yet. If other models start following, then we will have something to worry about. Until then just watch.

Yeah, except the GFDL develops it (even in the outer grid) and the Euro

Yea i couldn't see it in the GFDL... Hey do you have a link to the Euro? I have been looking for a site for a while. Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

:double: Okay................. please explain in simple English what is being seen as a potential threat exactly. Enough with the Hmmmmmm, Disturbing, Potential Gulf Threat and pictures of little round blobs coming right through my front door with no other explanations. I'm not as skilled as you folks but have been around here for a while and do learn a little more each year. Just give me the "tropical outlook for dummies" version please.

The CMC is sniffing out the wave to the E of the Caribbean as well as the GFDL. Improvements have been made in the Canadian Model this year and we have not seen the "fantasy storms" as of late. The CMC appears to like the Yucatan as the starting point for the wave to enter the S GOM, while the GFDL suggests the FL Straits and on into the SE GOM. The fly in the onitment is a frontal boundry forecast to be in the N GOM at the same time. Kind of a complicated setup, but worth watching.

[Ivanhater]

It is the cmc... Don't think about it too much yet. If other models start following, then we will have something to worry about. Until then just watch.

Yeah, except the GFDL develops it (even in the outer grid) and the Euro

Yea i couldn't see it in the GFDL... Hey do you have a link to the Euro? I have been looking for a site for a while. Thanks.

Yep, here you go..00z run should be in, in about 25 min

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9081112!!/

[paintplaye]

:double: Okay................. please explain in simple English what is being seen as a potential threat exactly. Enough with the Hmmmmmm, Disturbing, Potential Gulf Threat and pictures of little round blobs coming right through my front door with no other explanations. I'm not as skilled as you folks but have been around here for a while and do learn a little more each year. Just give me the "tropical outlook for dummies" version please.

The CMC is sniffing out the wave to the E of the Caribbean as well as the GFDL. Improvements have been made in the Canadian Model this year and we have not seen the "fantasy storms" as of late. The CMC appears to like the Yucatan as the starting point for the wave to enter the S GOM, while the GFDL suggests the FL Straits and on into the SE GOM. The fly in the onitment is a frontal boundry forecast to be in the N GOM at the same time. Kind of a complicated setup, but worth watching.

Ok, yea I saw that in the GFDL, just didn't expect that to be the storm that was the same from the cmc. Also I thought you were already asleep srain...

[paintplaye]

It is the cmc... Don't think about it too much yet. If other models start following, then we will have something to worry about. Until then just watch.

Yeah, except the GFDL develops it (even in the outer grid) and the Euro

Yea i couldn't see it in the GFDL... Hey do you have a link to the Euro? I have been looking for a site for a while. Thanks.

Yep, here you go..00z run should be in, in about 25 min

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9081112!!/[/quote]

Yes, thank you so much. That was the link I was looking for. I have used it in the past but just reloaded windows on my computer so I lost the bookmark. Thanks again.

[SETXWXLADY]

Yeah. Sorry Jagno. I'm still learning too. Just figured everyone knows more than I do. Lol. They are correct that for now its something to watch. And if the front does coincide with the timing of the potential storm chances are it would go to the NE Gulf instead. I think. Also I havent seen it on the Euro but I cant make heads nor tails out of the euro link I have. The most incouraging thing to me right now is that the wave they are showing looks pretty sickly now.

[PTrackerLA]

Yep the tropics are heating up, I'm starting to lose sleep over model runs yet again. Guess I'm staying up for the ECWMF run after seeing the most recent CMC and GFDL runs.

[SETXWXLADY]

Thanks for the link to the ECMWF.

[Jagno]

Yep the tropics are heating up, I'm starting to lose sleep over model runs yet again. Guess I'm staying up for the ECWMF run after seeing the most recent CMC and GFDL runs.

And here we thought it was for the outstanding company and the community coffee. LOL
Keep us posted neighbor.

[paintplaye]

Latest euro run showed lined up with the GFS and it goes a little farther south and west. You can also see a little bit of the gulf forming storm.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009081200!!!relative_archive_date!step/