ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[wxman57]

Yes, the center is exposed to the east of the blob of convection. Still struggling today.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the weak and west trend will dominate the models today.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The one model that shows the sharpest recurve out to sea already is suggesting a wnw motion should take place....all the others suggest a possible wsw motion in the short-term.

Interesting to look at the current model runs vs the prior plots below. GFDL and UKMET have shifted further south and west.



Hadn't checked model runs all day....bit surprised when this i saw this latest model composite....what happened to the hard right turn...for now....consistency and agreement will be the key this far out...

Why does HWRF have it hitting venezuala? fat fingers data typo?

[Blown Away]

Looking at the models, this spread reminds me of Ike. The GFS & GFDL kept showing Ike loop under Florida into the Gulf and the HWRF kept showing a landfall in Florida. Same thing happening here w/ GFS & GFDL moving TD WNW and HWRF recurving. NHC seems to be leaning towards a recurve and has not changed their position.

[gatorcane]

It's not Ike that this reminds me of but more like Frances if you had to do a comparison. All models showed Ike racing west across the Atlantic even this far out. If you go back and look at the discussions for Frances you will see some similarities here. Recall that Frances was supposed to generally head towards some weakness around 60W and turn NW. In addition, a Bermuda High ridge seems to want to build in across the Western Atlantic towards this weekend into next week. It all depends on whether TD can escape into the weakness or if it gets blocked, slows down then gets shunted underneath the building Western Atlantic ridge. At this point I'm hopeful it ends up weakening into an open wave and nothing more in the end.

[gatorcane]

Quick note through 72 hours on the NOGAPS run, looks like a pretty zonal pattern to me all across the tropical atlantic with a bit of a weakness trying to develop in the middle of the ridge to the north. However, the vortex travels WSW for a couple of days before nudging back WNW in the last couple of frames. I don't know if this is going to be enough to turn TD2 or just slow it down for a little while.

MW

Well Mike I have been looking at the models run after run. There is a weakness but its quite "unamplified." I have noted that the general consensus of the models is to create a zonal pattern across not only the Eastern CONUS but the Western and Central Atalntic..for the next 7-10 days. As long as this TD stays relative shallow (below the H5 layer)...it should just continue westward with a WNW motion at best missing the weakness, possibly slowing down temporarily as you mentioned.

[Thunder44]

Latest QS pass:

[wxman57]

This is no Ike. By the way, you can see all 2008 model runs at the Colorado State web site. Here's an early forecast run for Ike:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _early.png

Here's the main 2008 archive:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... hive/2008/

[cycloneye]

Nice water vapor loop.

[wxman57]

Here's a color sat pic I just made. Center is exposed east of the convective blob:

[brunota2003]

That QS pass had several 50 knot vectors and even one or two that were 55 knots...what was the TD a few years back that looked horrible, only to have recon find out it was actually a 60 mph TS?

[Gustywind]

[Blown Away]

Future Ana enter stage right! Maybe convection expanding, but it sure does appear TD2 has a slight southerly component to its track.

[wx247]

Here's a color sat pic I just made. Center is exposed east of the convective blob:

Wxman, it does look a little healthier to me than it did first thing this morning. Would you concur with that or disagree?

[Jevo]

Dmax really didnt do anything impressive, yet TD2 held together....

I don't know what Im looking forward to more right now... Tracking the storm, or the built up hype that is going to explode in this forum from the lack of storms.... I was impressed to see a GOM question already though... even that one took me for a bit of a loop


/popcorn

[cyclonic chronic]

i agree. the 1st few vis pics had the LLC almost fully exposed. now it looks like convection has expanded to somewhat cover the LLC. if it can keep it on top and stack up......

[Thunder44]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

12/1145 UTC 14.3N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 02L

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

Still a TD.

AL, 02, 2009081212, , BEST, 0, 144N, 333W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[brunota2003]

The QuikScat and the NRL WindSat pass (from 0801Z or 4 am this morning) both show 55 knot wind barbs, with several 50 knot and 45 knot barbs as well.

I think this thing is stronger than the Sat's think it is...anyone remember a few years ago we had a TD that the Sat's said was a TD, but Recon flew in it only to find out it was a 60 mph TS? I think this is something similar...

[KWT]

Its exposed BUT I bet its quite a bit stronger then its being given credit for, how many times have we seen Gulf of Mexico storms with a similar presentation have winds quite a lot higher then expected.
I'd have to think that with the deep convection present it'd be capable of having 35kts surely?

Also Td2 has moved slightly south of west just recently!