Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[SETXWXLADY]

Latest euro run showed lined up with the GFS and it goes a little farther south and west. You can also see a little bit of the gulf forming storm.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009081200!!!relative_archive_date!step/

Yep I saw that. I hope that ridge doesn't build west in time with that big storm. I wish it would just go out to sea. I think I'll stop looking at models now before they come to take me away.

[paintplaye]

Latest euro run showed lined up with the GFS and it goes a little farther south and west. You can also see a little bit of the gulf forming storm.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009081200!!!relative_archive_date!step/

Yep I saw that. I hope that ridge doesn't build west in time with that big storm. I wish it would just go out to sea. I think I'll stop looking at models now before they come to take me away.

Haha yea, don't take them tooo serious right now. We still have a while to go. This storm could go anywhere or not even form. Once we get around Friday-Sunday, then I will begin to take the models more serious.

[cyclonic chronic]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

wow, cmc at 132 hrs. strong system s of N.O., t.d.2 seems a weak storm and the wave emerging off africa as a building t.s- hur.
gfs really likes the system moving off africa, makes it a strong hurricane approaching the islands in 168 hrs.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i know that its a ways out there still. but i havent seen the models this bullish since last year

[SETXWXLADY]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

wow, cmc at 132 hrs. strong system s of N.O., t.d.2 seems a weak storm and the wave emerging off africa as a building t.s- hur.
gfs really likes the system moving off africa, makes it a strong hurricane approaching the islands in 168 hrs.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i know that its a ways out there still. but i havent seen the models this bullish since last year

At 144 hrs. CMC seems to have that storm sitting on the TX/LA border. Going to be a rocky next couple of weeks for someone if all these models play out.

[srainhoutx]

Again, I'll post the morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner in Talkin Tropics for those that may be interested...

Morning satellite images including visible, IR, and WV show the deep convective burst waning on the western side of the center. Visible images suggest the center may be exposed on the far eastern edge of the deeper convection. Water vapor images show significant amounts of dry and stable air surrounding 02 on the W and N sides and from time to time being ingested into the circulation weakening the convection. The system also shows limited convective banding.



Track:



Guidance has trended westward since yesterday morning with the NHC track now right (east and north) of most of the model runs. HWRF and BAMD continue to indicate a sharp NW turn toward Day 4-5 as the system reaches a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic…since the system has failed to intensify much and the thermodynamic environment is not all that favorable…with only slow intensification expected…a more shallow west track seems more likely at this moment.



Intensity:



02 will continue to fight dry air intrusions into the circulation. While shear is light and SST’s are modest the dry air will inhibit rapid formation in the near term. A few models take the system to hurricane intensity in the next 48 hours…but will disregard and follow NHC thinking of only a modest 50kt TS at maximum for the moment.



Tropics:



Global models continue to pound away at the tropical wave moving off the African coast with nearly all models extremely aggressive in developing this feature into a significant hurricane. This system is forecast to be at a dangerously low latitude and track more westward than TD 2 supporting a threat to the Caribbean Islands.



Latest runs of the CMC and EURO also show the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea developing into a tropical system over the Florida Straits this weekend and tracking WNW toward the Sabine River. CMC is very aggressive in taking a tropical cyclone toward SE TX/ SW LA early next week while the EURO maintains the feature as an open wave. GFS has little to do with this feature.



Local Weather:



Weak low level boundary is nearly stationary over the northeastern part of SE TX this morning with showers and thunderstorms already developing in a moist and unstable air mass. PWS remain in the 1.8-2.0 inch range with trigger temps in the lower 90’s. Expect to see another day of scattered development especially along and E of I-45. Inverted V sounding profile supports strong microburst/downburst and gusty outflow winds.



Will see the same pattern on Thursday shift more SW so more of the area may get wet.



Pattern change is ushered in this weekend as sub-tropical ridge builds westward from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico as powerful trough moves into the Pacific NW. This will open up the Gulf of Mexico and west/central Gulf to deep tropical moisture and a more typical summer pattern for SE TX as deep SE flow bring copious moisture. Expect more robust seabreeze storms starting Sunday. This also opens the door for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to move W or WNW toward the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic looks to be in full swing by next week.



For now will maintain the TW over the eastern Caribbean Sea as an open wave and toss out the CMC as it has limited support from the other global models. However, last few runs of the GFDL on TD 2 has also shown closed isobars in the FL Straits this weekend in the same location the CMC develops this feature. For now will go with an uptick on the winds and seas Sunday out over the open Gulf waters as this feature open wave/or something else approaches the central Gulf of Mexico. Early next week will depend heavily on potential development of this feature and ultimate track. Forecast upper air pattern suggest a general WNW track toward the TX/LA coast early next week…big question is this a wave axis or something much stronger.



Long Range:



Global models in decent agreement on significant tropical cyclone (possibly major hurricane) moving into the Caribbean Sea from the Atlantic around the middle of next week. Intensity of mid and upper level ridging over the Atlantic suggest a general W to WNW track with the EURO showing the system just N of Cuba and the GFS S of Cuba toward the end of their runs by late next week into the weekend of the 22.



Now is the time to review your hurricane preparation plans and make sure your Hurricane Ike supplies are fully re-stocked.

[KatDaddy]

Jeff's Long Range summary...........YIKES........IKE. Kidding aside, I hope there is not a major hurricane just N or S of Cuba late next week. Jeff is correct.......time to replenish IKE supplies.

[Stormcenter]

If I believed everything the "models" predicted I'd be a basket case.
Jeff Lindner is starting to remind me a lot of that Joe guy from Accuweather.

Jeff's Long Range summary...........YIKES........IKE. Kidding aside, I hope there is not a major hurricane just N or S of Cuba late next week. Jeff is correct.......time to replenish IKE supplies.

[N2Storms]

[quote="KatDaddy"]Jeff's Long Range summary...........YIKES........IKE. Kidding aside, I hope there is not a major hurricane just N or S of Cuba late next week. Jeff is correct.......time to replenish IKE supplies.[/quote]


I don't really think anyone needs to worry about the wave that is near the Windwards...it has a lot of work to do and IMO, it's going to remain an open wave...beyond that, who knows...obviously if TD 2 or the just emerging wave were to find their way to the GOM, given the synoptic setup, the W GOMEX would definitely be in play.

[Stormcenter]

Before you have heart attack remember it's the CMC model.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

wow, cmc at 132 hrs. strong system s of N.O., t.d.2 seems a weak storm and the wave emerging off africa as a building t.s- hur.
gfs really likes the system moving off africa, makes it a strong hurricane approaching the islands in 168 hrs.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i know that its a ways out there still. but i havent seen the models this bullish since last year

[TexWx]

Any worry about a piece of that front getting pinched off in the gulf?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[Stormcenter]

I think it's possible.

Any worry about a piece of that front getting pinched off in the gulf?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[KWT]

Yeah in El Nino seasons that sort of thing tends to happen at least once in a season so it wouldn't b shocking if that occured.

[ROCK]

Before you have heart attack remember it's the CMC model.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

wow, cmc at 132 hrs. strong system s of N.O., t.d.2 seems a weak storm and the wave emerging off africa as a building t.s- hur.
gfs really likes the system moving off africa, makes it a strong hurricane approaching the islands in 168 hrs.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i know that its a ways out there still. but i havent seen the models this bullish since last year

The CMC has had major improvements this season....By now we would have had 20+ phantom storms into NYC. ....I wouldnt knock it just yet...

[Wx_Warrior]

Rock...I do not smell what you are cooking!

Come on....Houston Texans made improvements during the offseason as well. But come on. CMC....

[ROCK]

Rock...I do not smell what you are cooking!

Come on....Houston Texans made improvements during the offseason as well. But come on. CMC....

Tis true my weather friend.... CMC did make improvements this season. Go to there web site and check it out.....

But lets take a closer look....


A) 0z Euro closes it off albeit weak and into mid-texas coast
B) 06z GFS toys with the idea, closes it off then opens it back up in the GOM...into TX/LA border...
C) GOM ssts are about as hot as you could get it

just some points to be made. We need more model runs!...This feature is the ECARIB wave currently...

[vbhoutex]

Rock...I do not smell what you are cooking!

Come on....Houston Texans made improvements during the offseason as well. But come on. CMC....

Tis true my weather friend.... CMC did make improvements this season. Go to there web site and check it out.....

But lets take a closer look....


A) 0z Euro closes it off albeit weak and into mid-texas coast
B) 06z GFS toys with the idea, closes it off then opens it back up in the GOM...into TX/LA border...
C) GOM ssts are about as hot as you could get it

just some points to be made. We need more model runs!...This feature is the ECARIB wave currently...

I don't like what you are cooking either, but your analysis is good. It is something we must watch with the GOM as hot as it is and with more than one model starting to sniff the possibility.

[gboudx]

Jeff Lindner is starting to remind me a lot of that Joe guy from Accuweather.

In what ways?

[Portastorm]

It seems to me like the Euro this summer, especially lately, has tried to erroneously pinch off lows from several troughs.

I've been rather desperate looking for model "hope" for rain and, thus, have paid close attention. But I agree ROCK, several more model runs with consensus and we might have something of interest.

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion lots of hype.

Jeff Lindner is starting to remind me a lot of that Joe guy from Accuweather.

In what ways?

[gboudx]

In my opinion lots of hype.

Jeff Lindner is starting to remind me a lot of that Joe guy from Accuweather.

In what ways?

Hmmm, I've never gotten that all from Jeff.