Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[Gustywind]

One of our niciest member in the tropics Msbee has post this excellent weather link this morning:
Just have a look...humm Cycloneye it's just a fanstasyland path, i assume for Gustwind too

"Good morning, members of the "tent"

this was posted this morning on stormcarib by a weather correspondent from Antigua.
That second wave? the monster wave?
the web site he posted makes it look very dangerous for us in the Caribbean.

TD #3 ???

* From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 07:58:22 -0400

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS SITE


http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... tla_height


INTERESTING, BUT RATHER WORRYING

This link will make the surfers in the Caribean islands salivate I am sure.

Tkanks, oh yeah for sureJPmia but not all the citizens

[Gustywind]

I'm guessing the first storm is our TD while the other is the soon to be "montser". oh wow, if this plays out....well I feel sorry for the islands in the path.

Tkanks Punky i appreciate... even if we're far away from that for the moment (maybe? ), but you're kind to have this thought about the carib islands

[Frank2]

Again, again, again...

Here's the visible of both TD2 and the "vigorous" wave - at this time both seem marginal (TD2 is very small and the wave is much less organized than TD2 was, when in that same location 3 days ago), so, before you go running down the street screaming, remember that there isn't much out there at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/vis-l.jpg

it's no use going through the panic drill with every model run - only to find 2 or 3 days from now that nothing materialized (how many times has that happened each season)...

Frank

[Tampa_God]

Tell me. where would you place the low exactly or where it could form. i'm having a hard time. I already picked up on the cyclonic turning, but thats it.

Seems that the low is somewhere around 11N 19W at this time.

[punkyg]

just an image so the folks can get a look

[KWT]

The thing is though Frank it does seem to be starting to show signs of organising, not as rapidly as Td2 did but many monster systems took a little while taking off as we all know.

Also you cannot ignore the fact every single model is developing it and there IS clearly something there that could develop into what the models are progging.

[Stormcenter]

Good post Frank2. How many times have we seen "monster" storms
predicted by the models that never pan out?

Again, again, again...

Here's the visible of both TD2 and the "vigorous" wave - at this time both seem marginal (TD2 is very small and the wave is much less organized than TD2 was, when in that same location 3 days ago), so, before you go running down the street screaming, remember that there isn't much out there at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/vis-l.jpg

it's no use going through the panic drill with every model run - only to find 2 or 3 days from now that nothing materialized (how many times has that happened each season)...

Frank

[wx247]

Just for the record, I am not saying this will be a monster storm. I am just merely sharing what I am observing using observations, satellite data, and model info. And as always... it is merely my unofficial opinion and not binding by any stretch of the imagination.

I do think, however, you can see the beginning stages of some development with the wave on the visible image.

[HurricaneBelle]

San Juan NWS seems a bit concerned about this wave:

ANOTHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING BEHIND TROPICAL DEP 2 AND WE
SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS SINCE GFS IS INDICATING POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE CHANCE THAT IT MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT MAX SURFACE
WINDS AT 25 KNOTS FOR GRIDS FOR DAY 7 AND 8 PERIOD. A REMINDER...IT
IS AUGUST AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY A TIME WHEN THE TROPICS BECOME MORE
ACTIVE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS...MARINERS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AS WE APPROACH THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.

[Gustywind]

Our new guest...

[Sanibel]

Looks like the models were correct after all. The second wave is bigger.


I can't help but think the second wave is too close to TD2 and will follow in the recurve weakness.

[Stormcenter]

That's what I'm thinking too.

Looks like the models were correct after all. The second wave is bigger.


I can't help but think the second wave is too close to TD2 and will follow in the recurve weakness.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That's what I'm thinking too.

Looks like the models were correct after all. The second wave is bigger.


I can't help but think the second wave is too close to TD2 and will follow in the recurve weakness.

Or it Keeps it(TD2) weak by stealing its energy and kills TD2 before the islands like the GFS says.

[Derek Ortt]

That's what I'm thinking too.

Looks like the models were correct after all. The second wave is bigger.


I can't help but think the second wave is too close to TD2 and will follow in the recurve weakness.

you two may be thinking wrong

[Sanibel]

Well, since the models are correct so far I guess it would be wise to assume they are right with the track for the second wave. I would be better off leaving this be and coming back in two days, but tropics watching is worse than crack.


GFS pulls our hurricane horribilus east in recurve off the east coast. We'll see how that trend plays out.

[TheShrimper]

Please explain Derek as to why that is.

[Derek Ortt]

TD 2 is 3 days ahead of the wave that just moved off of the COA. The models are showing more ridging building in during this time, plus, the COA wave is starting out farther south than TD 2

If I had to say right now with a gun to my head, I'd say Lesser Antilles

[Chigger_Lopez]

So Derek, With a gun to your head, does the GFS look pretty reasonable this far out. Obviously a lot can change, but I cant even imagine the panic South Floridians would have if the GFS is close to panning out.

[ronjon]

The COA wave is huge - I can see why the ECM and GFS are really developing it - could be our first major this year in the Atlantic basin.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[Frank2]

Sure, as Derek said it could track further south and west due to the building ridge, but shear could also increase if it moves further west, so, like a Julia Child cake recipe, all the "right" ingredients have to be there, else it will fall flat, so, per the SJU discussion, it's just something to monitor, given the time of year...

Frank

P.S. And of course the models will develop anything out there since it is that time of year, after all (a/k/a "climatologically favored") - if this were November, the same wave would not even be considered, due to the lateness of the season...