ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[CrazyC83]

I'd say the center is more like around 13.9N 34.2W.

[KWT]

I'd put it a little further to the north of that position Crazy but still its right on the edge of the convection regardless.

If we do see the convection get over the center for any amount of time I suspect we will have Ana on our hands. I personally think it doesn't look that bad even if it is clearly sheared, at least its still developing convection.

Also the further south it can stay the longer it will have before it reaches worse conditions.

[tailgater]

Pretty cool 1 KM loop it may have been posted already but I'm not going through 27 pages.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[cycloneye]

Still TD 2 at 11 AM EDT


WTNT32 KNHC 121442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

...DEPRESSION REMAINING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT
630 MILES...1015 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 33.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$


WTNT22 KNHC 121431
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 33.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 33.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 33.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.2N 35.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.2N 37.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.2N 40.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.5N 42.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.0N 48.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 33.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT42 KNHC 121442
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SHOWS A CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DISPLACING
THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0812Z DID NOT SHOW
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS THAT LOOKED RELIABLE. THUS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...
MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE COMING
FROM THE NORTH...REPRESENTING POSSIBLY MORE STABLE AIR PASSING OVER
COOLER WATERS. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/11. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE MODELS FORECAST A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESSES IN
THE RIDGE THAT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE TWO CLUSTERS IN THE GUIDANCE. THE HWRF...BAMD...LBAR...
AND CLIPER CALL FOR AN EARLIER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND AS A
RESULT THEY WIND UP NORTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE BY DAY 5. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE CLUSTER IN
BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY...THE UKMET SUGGESTS AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO...WITH THE DEPRESSION WEAKENING AND THE REMNANTS MOVING
WEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
27C...AND THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASE TO 28C AFTER
72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO ENCOUNTER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...FIRST
FROM THE EAST AND LATER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. ALSO...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE LATTER TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THE
SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW TO STRENGTHEN...AND AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS AN INTENSITY OF HIGHER THAN 55 KT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY IN 72
HR...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.3N 33.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.2N 35.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.2N 37.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 40.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 42.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 48.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 54.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 23.0N 60.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Still TD 2 at 11 AM advisory.

[Gustywind]

TD 2 always in race...accompanied by its new neighbour further east?

[Sanibel]

This could still weaken again since the dry air has been taken all the way around and behind it. Perhaps the models are on track with this one not becoming much and the follow-up becoming the deep storm.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure if I agree with the reasoning for holding it as a TD, since the QuikSCAT data used was from over 6 hours ago.

[Sanibel]

13.9N-33.9W

265-67

[KWT]

Seems to me that Td2 can't be all that far away from being upgraded, just probably needs one burst a little closer to the center and that will do the job.

[vbhoutex]

13.9N-33.9W

265-67

I know what you are showing here. How does someone not versed in the tropics and/or weather know what you are showing? Please take a few more seconds and write a small explanation of what you are showing for those people who are not as versed in the weather as you are.

[Thunder44]

I'm not sure if I agree with the reasoning for holding it as a TD, since the QuikSCAT data used was from over 6 hours ago.

I saw some things that was mentioned in the NHC 11am disco. Like the lack inflow coming into the system from the south. But I don't think a good case was made for keeping the winds at 30kts.

[cycloneye]

11 AM Advisory track is a little south than the 5 AM one.

[abajan]

13.9N-33.9W

265-67

I know what you are showing here. How does someone not versed in the tropics and/or weather know what you are showing? Please take a few more seconds and write a small explanation of what you are showing for those people who are not as versed in the weather as you are.

Lemme guess... Latitude 13.9 degrees North, Longitude 33.9 degrees West, heading West (or more precisely, 265 degrees) at 67 knots. 67 knots??! That can't be it... hmm...

[Sanibel]

265-67 was heading. Due just south of west at 265-67 degrees on the 360 degree compass.


The obvious east shear could be the Atlantic High grabbing this and sending it more west? Right? In that case the lower GFS west adjustment could be verifying - meaning the west prediction for the following system could be panning out.


*Dang - I wish someone would translate the VDM decode for me.

[canes04]

Convection building back west towards the center. I think we will see an upgrade at 5pm today.

[Sanibel]

The purple line is a straight line extension of the current direction.

It will show up as "EXTRAP" (extrapolation) on model charts.

[canes04]

I meant east, my bad.

[HURAKAN]

Nice burst of convection

[wxman57]

I'm not sure if I agree with the reasoning for holding it as a TD, since the QuikSCAT data used was from over 6 hours ago.

There is no newer data to contradict the 30 kts. Satellite loops show shear increasing and convection shearing off even further. No reason to think its intensified in the past 6 hours.