Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[JPmia]

So Derek, With a gun to your head, does the GFS look pretty reasonable this far out. Obviously a lot can change, but I cant even imagine the panic South Floridians would have if the GFS is close to panning out.

The GFS model ouput up to 96-144 hours (4-6 days) is probably as far as you can go with it...anything beyond that is suject to large error and not worth getting excited over yet.

[HurricaneRobert]

Aaah, the 1915 storm that proved the worth of the Galveston seawall...

ETA


Extremely, extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

OT: I am hoping for two snow miracle winters in a row here...

Extremely, extremely unlikely, but not impossible. What, a track like that? or having snow two years in a row?

Last season was extremely rainy. This season has been the exact opposite. I think the upper middle Gulf Coast is most at risk if this keeps together and makes it in the Gulf. FL panhandle and MS and AL coasts should be prepared.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Depression Two, eastern Atlantic distubance
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 12, 2009 10:52 am ET
ATLANTIC


East of T.D. 2, a large area of disturbed weather is moving off the Africa coast. This will be monitored closely over the next few days for the possibility of a tropical depression forming. For now, it will bring some stormy conditions to the Cape Verde Islands.

.

[Frank2]

Coming from TWC, I'd take that with a grain of salt - earlier this morning, Stephanie Abrams said this same system, per the models, was headed for Florida - she's a loose cannon, that's for certain (in fact, she's might eclipse JB when it comes to talking out of turn)...

The below is per the current discussion on TD2, and also has implications for the wave, since shear is a value that doesn't change as quickly as highs and troughs:

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
27C...AND THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASE TO 28C AFTER
72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO ENCOUNTER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...FIRST
FROM THE EAST AND LATER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST....

[Derek Ortt]

I wouldnt make any predictions based upon the 300 hour forecast of any model

[Frank2]

I agree - but she did (she might even eclipse JB for the 2009 "Loose Cannon" Award, shown on ESPN this Fall)...

LOL

P.S. My guess, but this season El Nino shear is going to be the big issue - the subtropical high seems to be there, the SST's seem to be there, the SAL isn't too bad - but the shear is also there...

[KWT]

Coming from TWC, I'd take that with a grain of salt - earlier this morning, Stephanie Abrams said this same system, per the models, was headed for Florida - she's a loose cannon, that's for certain (in fact, she's might eclipse JB when it comes to talking out of turn)...

The below is per the current discussion on TD2, and also has implications for the wave, since shear is a value that doesn't change as quickly as highs and troughs:

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
27C...AND THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASE TO 28C AFTER
72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO ENCOUNTER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...FIRST
FROM THE EAST AND LATER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST....

Remember though Frank this system is a good 2-3 days behind Td2 and also likely to be quite a bit more south then Td2 as well. 2-3 days is a massive amount of time and shear is just as changeable, if not more so in fact then troughs and highs!

[ROCK]

Aaah, the 1915 storm that proved the worth of the Galveston seawall...

ETA


Extremely, extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

OT: I am hoping for two snow miracle winters in a row here...

Extremely, extremely unlikely, but not impossible. What, a track like that? or having snow two years in a row?

Last season was extremely rainy. This season has been the exact opposite. I think the upper middle Gulf Coast is most at risk if this keeps together and makes it in the Gulf. FL panhandle and MS and AL coasts should be prepared.

there is no correlation between rainy, drought areas and hurricane strike probabilities......just saying....

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 14:19 GMT le 12 août 2009 — Last Comment: 16:07 GMT le 12 août 2009
TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching


Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:19 GMT le 12 août 2009

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1277

[cycloneye]

In 96 hours 12z GFS already has a strong TS.I will be posting until the 168 hour timeframe at this post.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

120 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

144 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

162 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

[Frank2]

KWT,

Yes, though El Nino-induced shear is something that is not dependent on what is happening with surface systems in the Atlantic, so, if nothing else this active pattern we are now seeing will be the test when it comes to the strength of this year's El Nino (already evident since the season is starting so late)...

Frank

[HurricaneRobert]

there is no correlation between rainy, drought areas and hurricane strike probabilities......just saying....

Sure there is - especially for the Texas coast.

[x-y-no]

In 96 hours 12z GFS already has a strong TS.I will be posting until the 168 hour timeframe at this post.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

Beat me to it ...

Looks very consistent with earlier runs so far.

[KWT]

Once again true Frank though its worth remembering the El nino is not much stronger at this stage than 2004 I believe which had a big 4-6 weeks. I'm expecting more of a 2006 season rather then 04 (maybe even a slower season who knows!) but I'm not sure the El Nino shear is that severe, its there but there are plenty of holes in it...remember only takes one to slip through the holes!

[x-y-no]

12z GFS day 5:





Still has enough mid-level ridging over it to prevent any influence from the trough.

This looks to be another westward track straight to the islands.

[x-y-no]

Does seem to be a bit slower than earlier runs, though.

[Frank2]

Per the maps, the NHC did mention the weakness (gap) in the ridge that is still evident at 96H, it'd also be a good candidate for a recurve, if the trough shown east of Bermuda were to become more established later in the period...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[gatorcane]

Yowza:

Run after run the GFS sends this monster towards the Leewards

[cycloneye]

Does seem to be a bit slower than earlier runs, though.

Agree,a bit slower and maybe a tad north too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Does seem to be a bit slower than earlier runs, though.

Agree,a bit slower and maybe a tad north too.

This is a Luis to Home Depot run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif