Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[gatorcane]

pounds Puerto Rico, the bahamas, and somewhow manages to miss Florida to the east. Very floyd-like here.

[Brent]

Floyd-like, narrowly misses Florida.

[punkyg]

I just got back in from alittle skating. how is much organization has taken place in the last couple of hours?

[lester]

right on top of me LOL

[RL3AO]

For the record, it was introduced as a tropical wave at 12z.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC=Big wave merges with TD 2

It moves away from islands as a strong hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Bocadude85]

pounds Puerto Rico, the bahamas, and somewhow manages to miss Florida to the east. Very floyd-like here.

LOL misses Florida by 12 hours.... anyways I do not think we can put any faith into any model until we at the very least have a invest. Also we all know how the models change every day... so I wouldnt put to much faith into a 12 day forecast.

[Derek Ortt]

the CMC scenario makes no sense at all

it has TD 2 as the large system and the disturbance as the small one. Talk about being disconnected from reality!

[JPmia]

12z CMC=Big wave merges with TD 2

It moves away from islands as a strong hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Cycloneye, that is a weird run...they join together??

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET joins the chorus of models showing a hurricane. In this case moving towards the Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Emmett_Brown]

pounds Puerto Rico, the bahamas, and somewhow manages to miss Florida to the east. Very floyd-like here.

LOL misses Florida by 12 hours.... anyways I do not think we can put any faith into any model until we at the very least have a invest. Also we all know how the models change every day... so I wouldnt put to much faith into a 12 day forecast.

Yup, anything could happen. I recall that the GFS had Dean and Ike recurving east of the US in early runs, only to continue going W. Really hard to say at this point. The amazing thing is, its going to take a week from now before we can start believing tracks. The most relevant thing for now is to watch for formation, and guess about impacts on the islands.

[Scorpion]

12z UKMET joins the chorus of models showing a hurricane. In this case moving towards the Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET is usually really conservative, so for it to show this is a good sign for development.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM Discussion.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 18W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWED A WELL DEFINED WAVE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA. UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL ALSO DEPICTED WAVE PASSAGE.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN
15W-25W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Probably 90L in the next hour with the 18z atcf update.

[tolakram]

How good are the models at predicting shear? I see an awful lot of shear out there that would seem to interfere with just about any storm traversing the Atlantic.

Maybe a better questions is; how good are these models during El Nino years?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Probably 90L in the next hour with the 18z atcf update.

Code: ORANGE!

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Probably 90L in the next hour with the 18z atcf update.

Agree. This is looking really good. Kind of surprised it's not already an invest.

[Gustywind]

TD 2 VS the new guest... see how big is our guest

[Thunder44]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Probably 90L in the next hour with the 18z atcf update.

Code: ORANGE!

Their wording really hasn't changed since the last two. I think they are giving it a greater chance of developing because the models continue to do develop it.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL run on TD 2 shows wave behind

For a few runs this has occured.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation