Caribbean - Central America Weather

[abajan]

Barbados' weather summary doesn't accurately reflect conditions experienced in the southwestern portion of the island because so far this morning we've had lots of rain and many streets are flooded. It's not raining at the moment, though.

[tropicana]

Barbados' weather summary doesn't accurately reflect conditions experienced in the southwestern portion of the island because so far this morning we've had lots of rain and many streets are flooded. It's not raining at the moment, though.

yeah abajan..... rockley, christchurch (near where some of my fam live in navy gardens) recorded just over 18mm of rain this morning, while near the airport, just 8mm fell!
stay dry!
-justin-

[Gustywind]

TROPICS ARE HEATING UP...

Tropical Depression Two, eastern Atlantic distubance
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 12, 2009 10:52 am ET
ATLANTIC

Tropical Depression Two (35 mile per hour winds) continues to head west though the Atlantic Ocean. As of late Wednesday morning, the center of circulation was located about 630 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

Easterly shear has been impacting the system and the center is displaced to the eastern side of the main shower and thunderstorm activity. However, just a slight increase in intensity would make the depression a tropical storm. The first name of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Ana.

High pressure to the north will steer the system in general westward direction the next few days. A weakness is forecast to develop in this high around 3 to 5 days from now allowing the system to move more west-northwest. This would keep it away from the Caribbean Islands and in the open Atlantic.

East of T.D. 2, a large area of disturbed weather is moving off the Africa coast. This will be monitored closely over the next few days for the possibility of a tropical depression forming. For now, it will bring some stormy conditions to the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has seen a decrease in shower activity and development is unlikely at this time. This wave will bring some showers and storms to the Antilles Wednesday into Thursday.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... ne_tracker

[cycloneye]

Look how the big wave is organizing.

[cycloneye]

Read that second paragrah.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE
AXIS NOW ENTERING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SHARP PW
GRADIENT INTO THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE CWA. BOTH GFS AND NAM12
SHOWING STRONG WIND SURGE FOLLOWING THE WAVE...WITH 1000MB VALUES
AROUND 30 KNOTS. LATEST QUICKSCAT PASS SHOWING MORE OF 20-25 KNOT
RANGE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARDS. BUMPED UP WINDS OVER COASTAL
WATERS TO PUT ALL WATERS INTO SCA FOR WINDS AND MANY FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS BY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT STILL STAYED LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE CAPPING WINDS AT 25 KT. THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE SURGE ALONG TOP AND BACK EDGE OF WAVE.
NAM12 EXTREMELY BULLISH WITH THIS WAVE...WITH A FEW RUNS EVEN
CLOSING OFF A SURFACE LOW AND SHOWING A 50KT MAX AT 850 OVER THE
COASTAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. EXPECT SQUALLY WEATHER AND BAD MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHARP DRYING TREND AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
DAYS OF DRY/CLIMO TYPE CONDITIONS BEFORE THE ACTION IN THE TROPICS
BEGINS TO NEAR. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO`S FORECAST TRACK HAS MOVED A
BIT LEFT...BUT STILL PROGGED TO GO WELL NE OF FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT...AND LARGER TROPICAL WAVE HAVING JUST EXITED THE AFRICAN COAST
IS THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW IN DEVELOPING A DEEP SYSTEM...TRACKING IT
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH TRACK IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AT
THIS POINT...GFS AND EURO MODELS SHOWING SURPRISING RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY MUCH IN THE SAME WAY THEY HAD PERFORMED PRE HURRICANE
DEAN IN 2007. WE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK
OF HURRICANE SEASON...AND THIS IS THE PERFECT TIME TO GO OVER YOUR
SEASONAL PLANS AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE READY. FORECAST TRACKS...ONCE
ISSUED...WILL CHANGE AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED ON FOR LONGER RANGE
PREPARATIONS.

[abajan]

Barbados' weather summary doesn't accurately reflect conditions experienced in the southwestern portion of the island because so far this morning we've had lots of rain and many streets are flooded. It's not raining at the moment, though.

yeah abajan..... rockley, christchurch (near where some of my fam live in navy gardens) recorded just over 18mm of rain this morning, while near the airport, just 8mm fell!
stay dry!
-justin-

Really? I don't live that far from them. I'll let them know you wrote!

[msbee]

Look how the big wave is organizing.

that's the one I am nervous about

Barbara

[msbee]

heavy thunderstorm here guys!
white out
Haven't seen rain like this in months

[cycloneye]

That bad weather will arrive here tonight and mantain until tommorow as the wave moves thru.

[cycloneye]

Flash Flood watch for parts of Puerto Rico and Virgin islands

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

PRZ001>004-012-013-VIZ001-002-130830-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0010.090812T2200Z-090813T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...
CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
430 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...
SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

* RAPID RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR MAY CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AREAS
AND POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

[HUC]

http://www.ipgp.fr/~beaudu/soufriere.html#
Luis, i send the web cam of Soufrière Guadeloupe ,as i can see it from my house. You got the East just in front of you,and of course,the clouds are often covered the mountain ,like it now....Cloudy with cb in my location,but rain are not heavy at the moment.

[msbee]

yes, we are getting it now. We just had a very heavy thunder and lightening storm which has now passed.
but I can still hear thunder in the distance and it is still raining. but not so heavy.
We do need the rain!
How are conditions in PR, Luis?

[cycloneye]

HUC,cam posted at first post of thread.

Barbara,its raining but not hard at this time.

[HUC]

Ok Luis,but i think nesessary to indicate that is Soufrière of Guadeloupe,to distinct it fgrom Montserrat.Thank's again.

[cycloneye]

I am typing this under a severe thunderstorm with gusts that I clocked at 30 mph.

[HUC]

Oh oh..lighting???

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Yes HUC,plenty of lighting and thunder.Is passing now but radar shows much more comming later tonight.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert has been requiered for Guadeloupe Cycloneye, HUC, and Msbee... be vigilant.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 122030
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED 92 DEGREES AT ST THOMAS AND 91 DEGREES
AT ST CROIX. IT WAS LOCALLY BREEZY...WITH A GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S. IT WILL BE BREEZY...WITH A GUSTY EAST WIND OF 15 TO
25 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...TO PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 19
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND ALL OF THE LOCAL
PASSAGES EARLY TONIGHT. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

$$

[Gustywind]

Hey what's the weather like in PR Luis? any lightnings?