Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[ROCK]

Look how this is organizing.

Is it me, or does future 90L look like it is moving faster than Ana? Wonder if Ana is going to be ingested by future Bill. Will be fascinating to watch.

You have been drinking the CMC koolaide my friend.....

[Emmett_Brown]

12z ECMWF=Strong hurricane for Bahamas

Not before it brushes the northern Leewards.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

looks like it starts turning before the bahamas.... hard to tell from that angle..

Come on guys we all know these models are going to change a million times before we start to get a good idea of where the system will end up. Also it seems to me that models almost always over amplify a trough

True. Early runs of Ike last year showed him recurving off the east cost, and as we all know, that didn't happen. In fact, just a couple of days ago, many models showed Ana crossing 20N around 40W, and that isn't going to happen either.

TWC showed the long range GFS today in their tropical update, with future Bill pulling into the Bahamas, and it made me chuckle. Media is showing these fantasy runs to the general public, which is not a good thing.

[Emmett_Brown]

Look how this is organizing.

Is it me, or does future 90L look like it is moving faster than Ana? Wonder if Ana is going to be ingested by future Bill. Will be fascinating to watch.

You have been drinking the CMC koolaide my friend.....

Yup, CMC did show a horror feature quality run there with Bill eating Ana for dinner. Would be cool to see it happen in real life!

[Steve H.]

Yes the ECM 12 Z run will change quite a bit during the next few days. Currently it shows a jog NW through the Bahamas, suggesting a Carolina or NE impact. As in the previous post, Ike was showing the same thing, only it ended up in Texas. Too early in the game. Interesting thing on this run that it shows a ridge moving from the Center of the country into the east during the 240 time frame. I suspect the final answer will be further west and maybe into the GOM, but I hope it curves into the Atlantic. Mr. Bill looks like it could be Mr. ugly.

[cycloneye]

Here is a snippet from the discussion in San Juan this afternoon of the big wave.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHARP DRYING TREND AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
DAYS OF DRY/CLIMO TYPE CONDITIONS BEFORE THE ACTION IN THE TROPICS
BEGINS TO NEAR. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO`S FORECAST TRACK HAS MOVED A
BIT LEFT...BUT STILL PROGGED TO GO WELL NE OF FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT...AND LARGER TROPICAL WAVE HAVING JUST EXITED THE AFRICAN COAST
IS THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW IN DEVELOPING A DEEP SYSTEM...TRACKING IT
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH TRACK IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AT
THIS POINT...GFS AND EURO MODELS SHOWING SURPRISING RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY MUCH IN THE SAME WAY THEY HAD PERFORMED PRE HURRICANE
DEAN IN 2007. WE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK
OF HURRICANE SEASON...AND THIS IS THE PERFECT TIME TO GO OVER YOUR
SEASONAL PLANS AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE READY. FORECAST TRACKS...ONCE
ISSUED...WILL CHANGE AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED ON FOR LONGER RANGE
PREPARATIONS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Emmett_Brown]

Here is a snippet from the discussion in San Juan this afternoon of the big wave.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHARP DRYING TREND AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
DAYS OF DRY/CLIMO TYPE CONDITIONS BEFORE THE ACTION IN THE TROPICS
BEGINS TO NEAR. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO`S FORECAST TRACK HAS MOVED A
BIT LEFT...BUT STILL PROGGED TO GO WELL NE OF FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT...AND LARGER TROPICAL WAVE HAVING JUST EXITED THE AFRICAN COAST
IS THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW IN DEVELOPING A DEEP SYSTEM...TRACKING IT
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH TRACK IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AT
THIS POINT...GFS AND EURO MODELS SHOWING SURPRISING RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY MUCH IN THE SAME WAY THEY HAD PERFORMED PRE HURRICANE
DEAN IN 2007. WE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK
OF HURRICANE SEASON...AND THIS IS THE PERFECT TIME TO GO OVER YOUR
SEASONAL PLANS AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE READY. FORECAST TRACKS...ONCE
ISSUED...WILL CHANGE AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED ON FOR LONGER RANGE
PREPARATIONS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Ominous long range text! Do you have your barbeque grill ready Luis?

[ROCK]

just giving you the business EM.....

hmmmm, no big swings as we typically see with the Euro...or GFS....as far west as Tampa FL or a EC run.....probably see the BIG swings later this weekend....

[StormClouds63]

Maybe a Floyd (1999) or Isabel (2003) type path? Not talking in terms of intensity, but just similar overall track. Of course, the early forecast models for Dean showed Gulf landfall, then Florida, then East Coast, and then re-curve (fish) before the persistent due west course was later established. I recall Ivan (2004) also looking very impressive as a wave emerging off the African coast. Who knows? This one is impressive now, but let's see if convection and organization persist.

[Stormcenter]

At this moment I don't believe either TD#2 or the African wave will be a GOM threat.
JMHO.

Yes the ECM 12 Z run will change quite a bit during the next few days. Currently it shows a jog NW through the Bahamas, suggesting a Carolina or NE impact. As in the previous post, Ike was showing the same thing, only it ended up in Texas. Too early in the game. Interesting thing on this run that it shows a ridge moving from the Center of the country into the east during the 240 time frame. I suspect the final answer will be further west and maybe into the GOM, but I hope it curves into the Atlantic. Mr. Bill looks like it could be Mr. ugly.

[Wx_Warrior]

I totally agree with you Stormcenter.

[Aric Dunn]

latest Euro..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Dean4Storms]

There does exist some potential with the African wave at getting into the Gulf.

[floridasun78]

i notice last run of Euro have it going more north from last run not hiting cuba

[Dean4Storms]

latest Euro..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

That looks like bad news too me, notice the 500mb High SW of Bermuda moving west in the last two frames and note the TC bending back to the west as it comes underneath it in the last frame.

[Bocadude85]

latest Euro..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

why does it only go out to 168 hours?

[cycloneye]

Here is the 240 hour EURO.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[MGC]

I would ingest these model runs with a big gain of salt. Far too often, the models want to take a TC poleward too early. I've seen it many times. Until the gulfstream flies and upper air data is fed into the models the strength of the ridge across the Atlantic is pretty much a big guess......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

latest Euro..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

why does it only go out to 168 hours?

because of the resolution.. i prefer that one over the other because its a full atlantic view and the resolution is better.

[Wx_Warrior]

So true....Love reading what is "going to happen."

[KWT]

Well the models DO agree on a basic synoptic set-up, upper ridge decays and is replaced by an oncoming trough. This set-up could either lead towards a recurve, an Floyd type track if the trough isn't strong enough and possibly even a Donna type track.

As for Gulf risk, only a risk if the models are overdoing the speed of the weakening and the storm stays quite far south.

I'd guess right now anywhere from the ne Caribbean up through towards even Nova Scotia needs to watch this, very long way to go yet!

Still some way to go before we get a depression, though it can't be too long before we get 90L.

By the way I wouldn't get too happy bout the ECM/GFS trough idea, the models quite often overamplify troughs at this range and is too progressive in bringing them in once there has been a pattern change. 24hrs slower makes a massive difference.