Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[Aric Dunn]

Well the models DO agree on a basic synoptic set-up, upper ridge decays and is replaced by an oncoming trough. This set-up could either lead towards a recurve, an Floyd type track if the trough isn't strong enough and possibly even a Donna type track.

As for Gulf risk, only a risk if the models are overdoing the speed of the weakening and the storm stays quite far south.

I'd guess right now anywhere from the ne Caribbean up through towards even Nova Scotia needs to watch this, very long way to go yet!

Still some way to go before we get a depression, though it can't be too long before we get 90L.

well thats fine for this last set of model runs agree on the ridge decaying.. but it was just at the 00z runs where the models were bringing it through the carrib and re curving in the eastern gulf. So please keep in mind that anything past 3 to 4 days is just here say.

[KWT]

Very true Aric, though the ECM has been more keen on the recurve idea, esp on its 12z runs then the GFS.

We shall see, I think the whole pattern no matter what model you see shows the ridge decaying, its just a matter of timing and placement of the system.

GFS still the most south by 120hrs, UKMO and ECM both lift this system between 96-144hrs.

[Derek Ortt]

has decent structure, but the convection has weakened to the levels shown by the depression

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

Very true Aric, though the ECM has been more keen on the recurve idea, esp on its 12z runs then the GFS.

We shall see, I think the whole pattern no matter what model you see shows the ridge decaying, its just a matter of timing and placement of the system.

GFS still the most south by 120hrs, UKMO and ECM both lift this system between 96-144hrs.

the problem is we dont know the true strength or the extent of the ridge at this moment or its heights .. you are right about timing as is always the case and we need to wait...

[Aric Dunn]

has decent structure, but the convection has weakened to the levels shown by the depression

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

which is quite normal when systems start organizing.. flaring up and down

[lonelymike]

Can someone post a historical comparision of where storms organizing in this area end up going? Just curious. Thanks

[gatorcane]

much more south on this run -- no trough to scoop it up. Goes to show the long-range is pretty inaccurate:

18Z though has less data....

[gboudx]

Can someone post a historical comparision of where storms organizing in this area end up going? Just curious. Thanks

Something like this?

[Derek Ortt]

takes up the entire Gulf of Mexico and part of the subtropical western Atlantic at the end of the run

Glad that's fantasyland

and on that track, Haiti will flood yet again

[Brent]

Holy crap! Look at the size of this thing! Epic hurricane.

[KWT]

The 18z track is pretty impressive, as others have said it does show there is a chance the models are wrong, however if I had to choose either 12z GFS/12z ECM or 18z GFS I'd pick the first two every single time, through all my years of wathcing both summer and winter syopnitcs the 18z is probably the least likely to come off.
Still its August and thus it would make a certain amount of sense for the 18z GFS idea to come off.

The bottom line is we can't be confident about the track it seems.

Ahhhh...the 18z is WAY faster between 96-144hrs then every other previous GFS run, probably an outlier...

[Duddy]

Holy crap! Look at the size of this thing! Epic hurricane.

I couldn't help but chuckle at how incredible that run came out.

The GFS is now the Michael Bay of tropical models.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Holy crap! Look at the size of this thing! Epic hurricane.

Another Katrina, almost four years to the day later. Fortunately, if a model says something is going to happen 300 hours out, that usually means that something completely different is going to happen.

[cycloneye]

Forget about tracks,as what is the most important thing about this model consensus is that they develop it run after run.

[Aric Dunn]

much more south on this run -- no trough to scoop it up. Goes to show the long-range is pretty inaccurate:

18Z though has less data....

18z has the same data.. just re run..

[Brent]

Forget about tracks,as what is the most important thing about this model consensus is that they develop it run after run.

Yeah, I wouldn't get too worked up over the tracks. The point is the consensus for 2 days has been a major hurricane threatening the U.S., really beyond that it's impossible to tell anything.

[lonelymike]

Can someone post a historical comparision of where storms organizing in this area end up going? Just curious. Thanks

Something like this?

Yes something like that:) Thank you!

[lonelymike]

GFS has pretty much destroyed the entire coast from LA to Newfoundland in it's runs this year. I previously said I thought the GFS was crap. Should have clarified I don't think it is very accurate as far as tropical models. It does ok on other stuff. I don't think either Chris or Derek are very big fans of the GFS but I could be wrong.

[Wx_Warrior]

Junk

[cycloneye]

The 18 UTC surface analysis by TAFB has a low pressure with big wave.I expected now that it has the low to get invest status tonight.