cycloneye wrote:I am typing this under a severe thunderstorm with gusts that I clocked at 30 mph.
You guys stay safe there ya hear.... sometimes, others don't realize the damage just a wave can do to us islanders.
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
You guys stay safe there ya hear.... sometimes, others don't realize the damage just a wave can do to us islanders.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
caribsue wrote:cycloneye wrote:I am typing this under a severe thunderstorm with gusts that I clocked at 30 mph.
You guys stay safe there ya hear.... sometimes, others don't realize the damage just a wave can do to us islanders.
Good reasoning you're 100% right
a wave can bring serious troubles even a huge CB cloud 
. Live in a island is something very special as we're under the threat of numerous natural disasters :oops rain waves winds, earthquake, volcano and more...Off topic i'm glad to see you on the TENT
caribsue we continue to watch the huge wave from Africa.
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
You forgot tornado..... look what happened in Trinidad a couple days ago..... We had bad thunder rain & lightning on Monday and just rain again today from that wave that was just to the east of us.
I know there has been a lot of talk on the forum in other topics eg: strong wave off africa about model runs etc and panicking people, but the way I look at it is that, fore warned is fore armed and we can make the necessary preps and I not talking about storm parties. This is the only place that I can come that talks about threats to our little counties because majority of the time when a system becomes a threat worth mentioning on the major networks (usually a couple days from Puerto Rico or the mainland) the system in question is usually right on our doorsteps.
Keep up the good work guys it is appreciated and it's good to know that two moderators are like myself c'bean people.
I know there has been a lot of talk on the forum in other topics eg: strong wave off africa about model runs etc and panicking people, but the way I look at it is that, fore warned is fore armed and we can make the necessary preps and I not talking about storm parties. This is the only place that I can come that talks about threats to our little counties because majority of the time when a system becomes a threat worth mentioning on the major networks (usually a couple days from Puerto Rico or the mainland) the system in question is usually right on our doorsteps.
Keep up the good work guys it is appreciated and it's good to know that two moderators are like myself c'bean people.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
caribsue wrote:You forgot tornado..... look what happened in Trinidad a couple days ago..... We had bad thunder rain & lightning on Monday and just rain again today from that wave that was just to the east of us.
I know there has been a lot of talk on the forum in other topics eg: strong wave off africa about model runs etc and panicking people, but the way I look at it is that, fore warned is fore armed and we can make the necessary preps and I not talking about storm parties. This is the only place that I can come that talks about threats to our little counties because majority of the time when a system becomes a threat worth mentioning on the major networks (usually a couple days from Puerto Rico or the mainland) the system in question is usually right on our doorsteps.
Keep up the good work guys it is appreciated and it's good to know that two moderators are like myself c'bean people.
Yeah i forgot tornado
, but one of our member post a nice reply about what you are speaking. We try to be informative as possible, tkanks for all caribsue 
Here is the post from our member:
TORNADO IN WEST CENTRAL TRINIDAD
Sun Aug 9 2009
this is a video shot on Sun August 9/2009 near noon ... im not sure if the "tornado" actually did touch the ground since its not clear with this footage, but it was a large funnel cloud for certain. There were reports of hail in parts of Central Trinidad as well.
Tornadoes are fairly rare events on trinidad due to its small size, but have been increasing in their appearances over the last number of years. Of all the Eastern Caribbean Islands, (apart from puerto rico) trinidad is the most likely for a tornado to form since its a relatively larger island to the others.
They normally form on the west central parts of the island, since this part is the flattest area of the island .
Generally, the "tornado season" in trinidad is the months of september and october since these are the hottest and most humid times of the year when trade winds are at their weakest, allowing temperatures to sky-rocket into the mid 90s (locally higher) on the west coast.
But this is great footage,
justin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kW_nfHkKQ9w
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 122330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ABNT20 KNHC 122330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 122354
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS NEAR 14.3N 35.0W OR
ABOUT 710 MILES/1140 KM TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC BULLETIN UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W...MOSTLY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NORTHWARD.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
...THE ITCZ...
10N21W 12N32W 13N36W 10N46W 14N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 9N30W 10N40W 10N50W 15N60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
11N TO 22N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE AREA THAT IS ENCOMPASSED BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
22N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SHEAR AXIS EXISTS BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TO A SPOT THAT IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM THE BIG BEND WESTWARD TO ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 24N
BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA TO HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW JUST DESCRIBED...AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...INTERIOR MEXICO...AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 12N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WITH
THE 60W/61W TROPICAL WAVE.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N38W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N45W 24N52W...ALONG A SHEAR
AXIS TO A 24N63W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 30N64W 28N70W 28N74W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 122354
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS NEAR 14.3N 35.0W OR
ABOUT 710 MILES/1140 KM TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC BULLETIN UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W...MOSTLY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NORTHWARD.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
...THE ITCZ...
10N21W 12N32W 13N36W 10N46W 14N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 9N30W 10N40W 10N50W 15N60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
11N TO 22N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE AREA THAT IS ENCOMPASSED BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
22N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SHEAR AXIS EXISTS BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TO A SPOT THAT IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM THE BIG BEND WESTWARD TO ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 24N
BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA TO HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW JUST DESCRIBED...AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...INTERIOR MEXICO...AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 12N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WITH
THE 60W/61W TROPICAL WAVE.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N38W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N45W 24N52W...ALONG A SHEAR
AXIS TO A 24N63W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 30N64W 28N70W 28N74W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.
$$
MT
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 130235
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.IT WAS
LOCALLY BREEZY...WITH A GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20
MPH.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING...
WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 130235
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.IT WAS
LOCALLY BREEZY...WITH A GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20
MPH.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING...
WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130246
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009
.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER LAND AREAS FOR AT LEAST THE
PAST TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS IN COMBINATION WITH A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE...PRODUCED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INTENSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGED FROM ONE TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
PART OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONCE THE
WAVE EXIT THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY...A RELATIVE DRY TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...A WIND SURGE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MAINLY OVER THE AREA
WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SEAS ARE GOING TO BE
CHOPPY AS WIND GENERATED WAVES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 7 FEET ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FOR SOME AREAS
WHILE OTHERS ARE GOING TO BE IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY MORNING.
[size=150]ABOUT TD TWO...FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS...TD TWO HAS STRUGGLES TO
KEEP ITS CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM AS IT DID EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE TROPIC...GO TO
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.[/size]
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
FXCA62 TJSJ 130246
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009
.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER LAND AREAS FOR AT LEAST THE
PAST TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS IN COMBINATION WITH A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE...PRODUCED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INTENSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGED FROM ONE TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
PART OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONCE THE
WAVE EXIT THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY...A RELATIVE DRY TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...A WIND SURGE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MAINLY OVER THE AREA
WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SEAS ARE GOING TO BE
CHOPPY AS WIND GENERATED WAVES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 7 FEET ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FOR SOME AREAS
WHILE OTHERS ARE GOING TO BE IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY MORNING.
[size=150]ABOUT TD TWO...FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS...TD TWO HAS STRUGGLES TO
KEEP ITS CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM AS IT DID EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE TROPIC...GO TO
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.[/size]
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
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so goodbye-
cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good morning to all.Last night was a noisy one as many claps of thunder occured with the heavy showers.Today moist air behind the wave will contribute to more rain.
We have invest 90L now so lets watch and see how that system evolves in the next few days.
We have invest 90L now so lets watch and see how that system evolves in the next few days.
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Gustywind
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- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
cycloneye wrote:Good morning to all.Last night was a noisy one as many claps of thunder occured with the heavy showers.Today moist air behind the wave will contribute to more rain.
We have invest 90L now so lets watch and see how that system evolves in the next few days.
Hi Luis glad see that you're ok
in spite of the noisy night, seems that was an active one 
. Nothing to report in Guadeloupe. Yellow alert has been disrupted. Today, we should experienced a mix of showers and sun.Things seems to fairly heating up as you're speaking about Invest 90L
so something monitor closely during the next couple of days. Tkanks for the info Cycloneye , i will try to inform all the carib friends about this feature by posting ...
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Read carefully the second paragh it coincides given the latest from Cycloneye at our new guest near Africa: INVEST 90L ...Keep watching it islanders as developpement in tropical cyclone seems pretty possible.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 130530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
INVEST 90L ...Keep watching it islanders as developpement in tropical cyclone seems pretty possible.000
ABNT20 KNHC 130530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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I'm waiting for the next TWO to see how Invest 90L has evolved...-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 130908
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX SO FAR RECEIVING MOST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH ACCOMPANYING THE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. PASSING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 130908
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX SO FAR RECEIVING MOST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH ACCOMPANYING THE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. PASSING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130923
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINKS THREE
LOW CENTERS...ONE OVER HAITI...ONE NORTH OF SAINT MARTIN AND ONE
ABOUT 1450 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE MIDDLE LOW WILL
APPROACH PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN RETREAT TO THE
NORTH LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MOVES INTO THE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ENTER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. A
WEAK WIND SURGE WILL FOLLOW. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS WAVE INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT CURRENTLY IT IS FACING SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DRIER
AIR IS BEHIND THEM AND THE SEPARATING BOUNDARY BETWEEN THAT AIR
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE PAST THE USVI THIS MORNING
AND SAN JUAN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND THE WAVE UNTIL TONIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE ARE RIDING THE TROUGHS THAT
PASS...ONE ON SATURDAY AND A SECOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER
SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE SEEN IN THE
TROPICAL PRODUCTS AND SUMMARIES.
THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AST. AT THIS TIME
SHOWERS ARE STRONGER TO THE NORTH BUT ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ONSHORE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO. LIGHT RAIN
PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE USVI. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE RISK OF
FLOODING AS HEATING DRIVES CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
THE EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE NEW CONVECTION IS KNOW. IN THE
MEANTIME SHOWERS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT IN COVERAGE OR INTENSITY TO
CREATE FLOODING BEFORE 8 AM AST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES DURG THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA
WILL AFFECT THE FLYING AREA...RESULTING IN OCNL MVFR CONDS AND
BRIEF GUSTY SFC WINDS MAINLY IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST AND TISX
TIL 12Z. DURING THE AFTN...ISOLD TSTMS AND SHRA WILL DVLP OVR THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS BTWN 17Z-22Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS ALSO PSBL ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR DURG THE EARLY MORNING IN THE
EAST...AND ACROSS WEST INTERIOR IN THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE WINDS...AND WILL THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 78 / 60 60 20 50
STT 90 81 90 79 / 60 60 20 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CULEBRA-
EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
VIEQUES.
SCA...710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
SCA...AMZ710-715-722-725-732.
&&
$$
09/12
FXCA62 TJSJ 130923
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINKS THREE
LOW CENTERS...ONE OVER HAITI...ONE NORTH OF SAINT MARTIN AND ONE
ABOUT 1450 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE MIDDLE LOW WILL
APPROACH PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN RETREAT TO THE
NORTH LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MOVES INTO THE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ENTER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. A
WEAK WIND SURGE WILL FOLLOW. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS WAVE INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT CURRENTLY IT IS FACING SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DRIER
AIR IS BEHIND THEM AND THE SEPARATING BOUNDARY BETWEEN THAT AIR
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE PAST THE USVI THIS MORNING
AND SAN JUAN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND THE WAVE UNTIL TONIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE ARE RIDING THE TROUGHS THAT
PASS...ONE ON SATURDAY AND A SECOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER
SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE SEEN IN THE
TROPICAL PRODUCTS AND SUMMARIES.
THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AST. AT THIS TIME
SHOWERS ARE STRONGER TO THE NORTH BUT ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ONSHORE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO. LIGHT RAIN
PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE USVI. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE RISK OF
FLOODING AS HEATING DRIVES CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
THE EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE NEW CONVECTION IS KNOW. IN THE
MEANTIME SHOWERS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT IN COVERAGE OR INTENSITY TO
CREATE FLOODING BEFORE 8 AM AST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES DURG THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA
WILL AFFECT THE FLYING AREA...RESULTING IN OCNL MVFR CONDS AND
BRIEF GUSTY SFC WINDS MAINLY IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST AND TISX
TIL 12Z. DURING THE AFTN...ISOLD TSTMS AND SHRA WILL DVLP OVR THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDS BTWN 17Z-22Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS ALSO PSBL ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR DURG THE EARLY MORNING IN THE
EAST...AND ACROSS WEST INTERIOR IN THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE WINDS...AND WILL THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 78 / 60 60 20 50
STT 90 81 90 79 / 60 60 20 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CULEBRA-
EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
VIEQUES.
SCA...710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741.
VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
SCA...AMZ710-715-722-725-732.
&&
$$
09/12
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Gustywind
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- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Here is the latest TWD, the second paragrah is speaking about Invest 9OL...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 131047
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 36.9W OR ABOUT
840 MILES...1350 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 13/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WNW AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION STILL COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER LOCATION. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE
DETAILS.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 16N NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AS WELL AS A 0746 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE GIVING EVIDENCE OF A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
21W-28W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 21W-26W. THERE IS A 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N67W T15N65 7N64W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 63W-65W...AND FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 66W-71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS...EXCEPT
FOR OVER COLUMBIA WHERE A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 86W-89W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N25W 14N34W 10N48W
11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST
OFF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-44W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N83W TO 24N91W. THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN GULF TO 24N87W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF N
OF 27N W OF 92W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM 31N88W TO 30N95W...AS
WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ERN GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND NRN
MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N
BETWEEN 90W-95W SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N89W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 16N103W. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REACH THE SW GULF
LATER TODAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 78W-84W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N89W
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...INHIBITING CONVECTION
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF 68W IS
SUPPORTING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN...BECOMING STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. EXPECT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC N OF
24N W OF 78W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO
NEAR 31N82W...AS OF 0900 UTC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF 78W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN
57W-78W IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN...SEE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N74W TO 30N64W SUPPORTING
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 49W-58W
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BETWEEN 57W-78W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N45W. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 39N26W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ERN ATLC E OF 40W.
$$
WALTON
000
AXNT20 KNHC 131047
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 36.9W OR ABOUT
840 MILES...1350 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 13/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WNW AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION STILL COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER LOCATION. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE
DETAILS.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 16N NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AS WELL AS A 0746 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE GIVING EVIDENCE OF A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
21W-28W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 21W-26W. THERE IS A 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N67W T15N65 7N64W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 63W-65W...AND FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 66W-71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS...EXCEPT
FOR OVER COLUMBIA WHERE A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 86W-89W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N25W 14N34W 10N48W
11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST
OFF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-44W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N83W TO 24N91W. THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN GULF TO 24N87W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL GULF WITH 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF N
OF 27N W OF 92W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM 31N88W TO 30N95W...AS
WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ERN GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND NRN
MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N
BETWEEN 90W-95W SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N89W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 16N103W. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REACH THE SW GULF
LATER TODAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 78W-84W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N89W
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...INHIBITING CONVECTION
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF 68W IS
SUPPORTING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN...BECOMING STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. EXPECT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC N OF
24N W OF 78W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO
NEAR 31N82W...AS OF 0900 UTC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF 78W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN
57W-78W IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN...SEE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N74W TO 30N64W SUPPORTING
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 49W-58W
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BETWEEN 57W-78W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N45W. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 39N26W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ERN ATLC E OF 40W.
$$
WALTON
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