Global model runs discussion

[JPmia]

I've been looking at model runs for over 7 years now and notice that Florida and other parts of the US coast are usually in the cross hairs at one point or another in these runs that are far out in advance. Probably because we stick out like a sore thumb in the ocean. It is so common that there is some reassurance to be "hit" by a Cat 5 in a model output 200-300 hours in advance. LOL ....I think right now the folks in this forum from the Eastern Carribean islands have reason to be concerned, but not excited...yet. I have friends over there and will be watching very closely.

[ROCK]

Much further south this run..

yep...the trof, how far west it gets before it developes, how strong the ridge will all come into play.

[gatorcane]

[cycloneye]

Apart from the big wave the models develop,GFS has more systems doing so in fantasyland.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF just out. Major cane in the Bahamas but a large trough lurking along the Eastern CONUS:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

[Stormcenter]

The trough has been there off and on all Summer so no surprise if all of this pans out.
Anyway that would be great for the entire U.S. mainland if this in fact develops.

12Z ECMWF just out. Major cane in the Bahamas but a large trough lurking along the Eastern CONUS:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

[Emmett_Brown]

The trough has been there off and on all Summer so no surprise if all of this pans out.
Anyway that would be great for the entire U.S. mainland if this in fact develops.

12Z ECMWF just out. Major cane in the Bahamas but a large trough lurking along the Eastern CONUS:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

True. However, this trough looks shallower than the ones early this season. Timing will be everything. Of course, all this assumes that we will even have a storm at that time, which looks more and more likely all the time.

[Wx_Warrior]

This could be an EC type of season. Joe B would be beside himself!

[capepoint]

This could be an EC type of season. Joe B would be beside himself!

Na..thats ok. You gulf coast guys can have 'em all. Wouldn't want JB to have a coronary or anything. lol

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I always hear about the threat to the east coast but it never pans out above Virginia. Last serouis storm was Bob I believe in the 80's. Floyd was not a big deal. i lived on long island at the time. I dont put alot of stock into direct NYC hits. A Cat-3 could hit San Diego but it never does.

[RL3AO]

A Cat-3 could hit San Diego but it never does.

Not unless Mr. Gore is right.

[Derek Ortt]

I always hear about the threat to the east coast but it never pans out above Virginia. Last serouis storm was Bob I believe in the 80's. Floyd was not a big deal. i lived on long island at the time. I dont put alot of stock into direct NYC hits. A Cat-3 could hit San Diego but it never does.

Bob was 1991. Cat 2 into RI/Mass after narrowly missing LI

[jinftl]

the East Coast actually does run south of Virginia as well...it's that southern half that does see much more action in terms of tropical systems....that is just our burden to bear more often than folks up your way

where are you seeing...or inferring...a concrete east coast threat (to then dismiss) right now?

I always hear about the threat to the east coast but it never pans out above Virginia. Last serouis storm was Bob I believe in the 80's. Floyd was not a big deal. i lived on long island at the time. I dont put alot of stock into direct NYC hits. A Cat-3 could hit San Diego but it never does.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I always hear about the threat to the east coast but it never pans out above Virginia. Last serouis storm was Bob I believe in the 80's. Floyd was not a big deal. i lived on long island at the time. I dont put alot of stock into direct NYC hits. A Cat-3 could hit San Diego but it never does.

Bob was 1991. Cat 2 into RI/Mass after narrowly missing LI

Thanks just looked it up.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

the East Coast actually does run south of Virginia as well...it's that southern half that does see much more action in terms of tropical systems....that is just our burden to bear more often than folks up your way

where are you seeing...or inferring...a concrete east coast threat (to then dismiss) right now?

I always hear about the threat to the east coast but it never pans out above Virginia. Last serouis storm was Bob I believe in the 80's. Floyd was not a big deal. i lived on long island at the time. I dont put alot of stock into direct NYC hits. A Cat-3 could hit San Diego but it never does.

Im just saying its a moonshot once in a lifetime event. Lots of stuff has to line up perfectly. Oh man im so gonna eat these words if something happens. Moderators can ban me from posting if a storm hits new york city like bastardi says.

[vbhoutex]

Let's take this back to discussion about the model runs please.

[Blown Away]

The trough has been there off and on all Summer so no surprise if all of this pans out.
Anyway that would be great for the entire U.S. mainland if this in fact develops.

12Z ECMWF just out. Major cane in the Bahamas but a large trough lurking along the Eastern CONUS:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

Yes, the EC trough has been there all summer until recently, there has been a nice E wind recently which tells me the BH is starting to show up along the EC. What's w/ the 12Z ECMWF, it bounces from Bahamas to Cuba then back to Bahamas??

[LaBreeze]

This CMC looks more like the good old days before the upgrade. 3 systems.... The gulf system seems to come from wave east of the carribean.

00Z

6 days out.....................I pray this CMC model is just on some good drugs............otherwise I'll need some as it shows it coming onshore right over my house AGAIN. I don't understand the colors vs intensity? Anyone care to give me a quick color code for dummies clue.

Yep, Jagno, I don't like this map either. Let's hope this doesn't pan out.

[Aquawind]

Jagno.. The colors represent the pressure and the tighter they are the stronger the gradient.. Greeen - blue is low pressure

[Sanibel]

Oops. Model runs.


Wait til friday for verification.