ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[HURAKAN]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[HURAKAN]

462
WHXX01 KWBC 130858
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0858 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090813 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090813 0600 090813 1800 090814 0600 090814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 22.0W 12.3N 24.6W 12.6N 27.4W 13.0N 31.0W
BAMD 11.5N 22.0W 12.0N 24.5W 12.4N 27.1W 12.7N 30.0W
BAMM 11.5N 22.0W 12.0N 24.5W 12.3N 27.1W 12.5N 30.1W
LBAR 11.5N 22.0W 11.9N 24.4W 12.4N 27.0W 13.0N 30.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090815 0600 090816 0600 090817 0600 090818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 34.7W 13.2N 44.1W 12.7N 54.0W 11.7N 62.2W
BAMD 12.8N 33.1W 13.4N 40.7W 13.8N 48.9W 13.8N 56.1W
BAMM 12.5N 33.3W 12.9N 40.9W 12.8N 49.1W 12.7N 55.5W
LBAR 13.4N 33.6W 13.7N 42.0W 12.8N 47.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 75KTS 83KTS 93KTS
DSHP 55KTS 75KTS 83KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 22.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 20.3W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 18.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[mcallum177]

whats with the re-runs LOL

Maybe this time 90L can become a depression or TS

[KWT]

Needs some more convection from the looks of things before it goes on to become anything more impressive.
Still no denying its developing a decent little circulation.

Get ready folks...given this probably is a big threat for the NE Caribbean this looks like being a long old thread!

[Meso]

Wow, that's an aggressive SHIPS forecast. Over 90 knots and still intensifying...Steady intensification in the beginning, then really ramping up. But then again the first SHIPS runs on TD#2 also brought it near 60kt.

[wxmann_91]

SHIPS always brings storms up to high-end TS/low-end Cat 1. But I have yet to recall where the first run of SHIPS brought a storm up to Cat 2+ strength (maybe Wilma?). I mean, between 48 and 96 hours it intensifies from a TS to a Cat 2 hurricane! That is something.

[jlauderdal]

Wow, that's an aggressive SHIPS forecast. Over 90 knots and still intensifying...Steady intensification in the beginning, then really ramping up. But then again the first SHIPS runs on TD#2 also brought it near 60kt.

intensity forecasting is still one big mystery by NHC's own admission, that track should make us all forget td2 real quick, looks like we have a real player finally

[alan1961]

No teasers this time mother nature, we want something to track properly, PLEASE!!!

[KWT]

I think you haven't got to worry about that Alan, given the model agreement about this I think you are going to have something to track at long last, will be interesting to see what this one goes on to do down the line in terms of strength.

PS first run of the SHIPS is very agressive, gets upto 93kts!!

[alan1961]

Yes agree entirely KWT, enough model support on this invest, only thing that maybe in question like you say is intensity, and of course the track which will change as time goes on but at least we have something that looks interesting

[KWT]

Yep track is a big uncertainty with this one, esp given the ECM has almost constantly been the north of the Caribbean whilst the GFS nearly always has it entering the Caribbean sea.

[cycloneye]

[Meso]

Now that was an interesting GFS run, the 06z GFS dissipates Invest 90L over the Caribbean.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Anyone else have a look at those model tracks and have the image of Hurricane Ivan's trek across the Atlantic come to mind?

[Nimbus]

TD2 brought a lot of moisture up from the ITCZ so 90L could develop as the models are predicting. I hate the low track into the Caribbean though.

[KWT]

certainly is a very odd run I have to admit, its closer to the ECM mind you with the system heading further north and also a good deal slower then the 0z run.

Very interesting run if nothing else!

[KWT]

The thing is though Nimbus the latest dynamic models seem to be suggesting there is going to be enough of a weakness to at give a lower risk to the central Caribbean now. Seems like the models are trending eastwards.

Still the models overdone the central Atlantic weakness with Td2, so no reason why they aren't overdoing this one as well, keep an eye on that.

[cycloneye]

Here is the loop of that 06z GFS run.It bypasses the Caribbean,and misses the Bahamas too.But lets wait for the 12z run that has more data to ingest and see if it repeats this or not.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

Cycloneye, the one that develops on that run is the wave behind 90L, that run actually dissipates 90L completely.

[KWT]

Yep it kills off 90L about 72hrs and develops the system behind it, which obviously has a huge impact as its 24-36hrs or so behind 90L and thats 24-36hrs less time under ridging conditions...which for the Caribbean is a HUGE amount of time!

Wonder if thats the area the ECM is developing as well hmmm?