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Gustywind
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Re: Re:

#1341 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:25 am

caribsue wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Have a good night all and looking carefully to our EAST! :)
Morpheaus is there :cheesy: so goodbye
Gustywind


Bon soir mes ami..... stay safe through the storm

LOL oh you're speaking good french: Bonsoir mes amis :) i will say Good morning Caribsue (Good morning =Bonjour :wink: ). We monitor the new pertubed area Invest 90L, hope you will be back on our TENT to discuss the weather... :)
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#1342 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:33 am

LOOKING AT AFRICA

TD 2 is fighting to stay alive but sill haging on while Invest 90L is up, racing west and has 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. As usual these two system will be watch and monitor closely ...

Image

Image
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#1343 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:42 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131126
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH
.


A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1344 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:48 am

Good morning fellow Caribbean folks

this morning on St. Marten it is windy and partly cloudy as the tropical wave has passed us by for the most part.
We survived our heavy thunderstorm from last night but not without flooding.

Image

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... ooded.html

Several low lying areas of the island were flooded. Too much rain all at once is not a good thing.
People are speaking of feeling like the thunder was on their roof and the lightning was going through their houses.
It was pretty dramatic.
There also were some power outages throughout the island.
People are saying this morning that if this is what happens if a tropical wave come by, what on earth will be do in a hurricane.
Public Works announced this morning that the trenches along the sides of the road are still blocked and have not been cleaned because their budget was approved.

I hope that everyone else is OK this morning. I see PR was under a flash flood watch. Hope everything there is OK.
Luis, how are you?

Barbara
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#1345 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:58 am

It's a nice, tkanks Barbara, it's a bit :eek: what a night, hopefully things were pretty calm in Guadeloupe. Showers lightnings thunder but nothing too bas like St Marteen and PR, looks like that the strong convective activity were near yours locations:( .
Whereas, right now i tkink that your eyes are also sweeping Invest 90L and TD2 too..
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#1346 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:04 am

From a correspondant of Anguilla, link on the weather site: Stormcarib.com. Looks like things continues to heating up...http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/ ... illa.shtml

TD#2 WEAKENING,INVEST90 FORMS
From: "Steve Donahue" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2009 08:14:00 -0400

Good Morning!



Continue to watch TD#2, but it seems to be dying out. Best guess as of now it will pass to our north as a tropical storm, with maybe 50 knot winds at the center – not much for us – maybe a little rain if we’re lucky! But we are in the 5 day cone for possible tropical storm strike.



The system off the coast of Africa that developed yesterday has now been identified as Invest 90, and continues to develop. All models and forecasts I’ve seen have it intensifying, and coming our way, arriving next Wednesday. Where? Way too early to tell. But here’s a quote from one of the more reliable weather services in the US as of a few hours ago:

“Invest 90L has a good potential to eventually become a major hurricane, possibly as early as Monday. The consistency in the model guidance has been remarkable, and in addition, the low latitude track Invest 90L should take will place it in higher sea surface temperatures and not be influenced as much by the dry Saharan Air Layer.

… I think it is very possible that Invest 90L will most affect the Leeward Islands as early as Tuesday and Wednesday from Guadeloupe northward through Anguilla and then westward through the Virgin Islands. With that said, residents and vacationers throughout the Leeward and Windward Islands, as well as the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should keep extremely close tabs on the progress of Invest 90L.”

Everyone needs to watch this system over the next few days to see what it does. Get updates every 6 hours starting at 5:00 am daily at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Cheers,

Steve Donahue

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Websites – http://www.anguilla-weather.com & http://www.anguilla-diving.com
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Re:

#1347 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:09 am

Gustywind wrote: From a correspondant of Anguilla, link on the weather site: Stormcarib.com. Looks like things continues to heating up...http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/ ... illa.shtml

TD#2 WEAKENING,INVEST90 FORMS
From: "Steve Donahue" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2009 08:14:00 -0400

Good Morning!



Continue to watch TD#2, but it seems to be dying out. Best guess as of now it will pass to our north as a tropical storm, with maybe 50 knot winds at the center – not much for us – maybe a little rain if we’re lucky! But we are in the 5 day cone for possible tropical storm strike.



The system off the coast of Africa that developed yesterday has now been identified as Invest 90, and continues to develop. All models and forecasts I’ve seen have it intensifying, and coming our way, arriving next Wednesday. Where? Way too early to tell. But here’s a quote from one of the more reliable weather services in the US as of a few hours ago:

“Invest 90L has a good potential to eventually become a major hurricane, possibly as early as Monday. The consistency in the model guidance has been remarkable, and in addition, the low latitude track Invest 90L should take will place it in higher sea surface temperatures and not be influenced as much by the dry Saharan Air Layer.

… I think it is very possible that Invest 90L will most affect the Leeward Islands as early as Tuesday and Wednesday from Guadeloupe northward through Anguilla and then westward through the Virgin Islands. With that said, residents and vacationers throughout the Leeward and Windward Islands, as well as the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should keep extremely close tabs on the progress of Invest 90L.”

Everyone needs to watch this system over the next few days to see what it does. Get updates every 6 hours starting at 5:00 am daily at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Cheers,

Steve Donahue

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Websites – http://www.anguilla-weather.com & http://www.anguilla-diving.com


what reliable service is he quoting? where did that info come from? I don't see NHC saying that, do I?
isn't this a little premature?
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Re: Re:

#1348 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:20 am

msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote: From a correspondant of Anguilla, link on the weather site: Stormcarib.com. Looks like things continues to heating up...http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/ ... illa.shtml

TD#2 WEAKENING,INVEST90 FORMS
From: "Steve Donahue" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2009 08:14:00 -0400

Good Morning!



Continue to watch TD#2, but it seems to be dying out. Best guess as of now it will pass to our north as a tropical storm, with maybe 50 knot winds at the center – not much for us – maybe a little rain if we’re lucky! But we are in the 5 day cone for possible tropical storm strike.



The system off the coast of Africa that developed yesterday has now been identified as Invest 90, and continues to develop. All models and forecasts I’ve seen have it intensifying, and coming our way, arriving next Wednesday. Where? Way too early to tell. But here’s a quote from one of the more reliable weather services in the US as of a few hours ago:

“Invest 90L has a good potential to eventually become a major hurricane, possibly as early as Monday. The consistency in the model guidance has been remarkable, and in addition, the low latitude track Invest 90L should take will place it in higher sea surface temperatures and not be influenced as much by the dry Saharan Air Layer.

… I think it is very possible that Invest 90L will most affect the Leeward Islands as early as Tuesday and Wednesday from Guadeloupe northward through Anguilla and then westward through the Virgin Islands. With that said, residents and vacationers throughout the Leeward and Windward Islands, as well as the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should keep extremely close tabs on the progress of Invest 90L.”

Everyone needs to watch this system over the next few days to see what it does. Get updates every 6 hours starting at 5:00 am daily at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Cheers,

Steve Donahue

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Websites – http://www.anguilla-weather.com & http://www.anguilla-diving.com


what reliable service is he quoting? where did that info come from? I don't see NHC saying that, do I?
isn't this a little premature?

Yeah msbee :eek: i have noticied that , i post it but i'm amazed by its sources, that's in my opinion very premature and a bit subjective, whereas we should contact him personnaly to have its reasoning. Let's wait and see... without falling in panic stress but stay objective calm :)
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1349 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:34 am

his quote was already posted on a travel site for SXM and I had to correct the poster, saying only official forecasts should be posted.
People do panic easily and often over inaccurate information.
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1350 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:40 am

msbee wrote:his quote was already posted on a travel site for SXM and I had to correct the poster, saying only official forecasts should be posted.
People do panic easily and often over inaccurate information.

Absolutely you're right Msbee :)
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1351 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:06 am

Here is invest 90L.Is organizing slowly so we have to watch how it evolves in the next few days.

Image
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1352 Postby FireBird » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:08 am

MsBee, could you tell me where in SXM that photo was taken? I used to live in Point Blanche (?) and then Cole Bay. It was a long time ago (1990-1991), and my last visit was 1994 (regrettably). I am always interested in the island as I view it as my second home. Thanks for keeping us informed, and continue to stay safe, esp. as we all look east for what next will come.
Carey
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#1353 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:29 am

Great...90L has it floaters :)
Image

How moist is the atmosphere with 90L, this should aiding 90L to grow up and be maybe who knows...TD 3 :?: Looks like another massive twave is bringing juicy loadsof convection behind 90L :eek:

Image

The train is ready...
Image
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#1354 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:32 am

Pretty interresting paragrah underlined in red...000
FXCA62 TJSJ 131418 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH A SLOW DRYING TREND EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. STRONG MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TD#2
REMAINS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLC WITH NO IMMEDIATE THREAT
TO LAND AREAS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A SLOWER DRYING TREND TODAY THAN SUGGESTED BY
MODELS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TO PRODUCE NMRS SHRAS/TSRA. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA AS FLOODING NO LONGER A CONCERN.

MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AND VERY LIMITED SHRA ACTIVITY.

[size=150]PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON
TD#2 AND VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION AND IT WILL TAKE TIME BEFORE A CENTER CAN GET WELL
ESTABLISHED. UNTIL A CENTER GETS ESTABLISHED DONT EXPECT MODELS TO
GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. STILL AT
LEAST 6 DAYS OR SO BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE AND TRACK FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT ARE IN THE ORDER OF
350 NAUTICAL MILES OR SO. THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AT ITS
WIDESPOINT IS ABOUT 700 MILES IN DIAMETER OR ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF
THE STATE OF FLORIDA.[/
size] :eek:
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT JBQ. ALL OTHERS TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS SEEN ON TISX OBS THIS MORNING. 12Z
JSJ SOUNDING AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING UP TO 30 KTS AVAILABLE
TO MIX DOWN. WILL KEEP SCA MAINLY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE AS THESE ARE THE ONLY PLACES WHERE GUSTS IN SCA CATEGORY
ARE BEING REALIZED. HAVE DROPPED SEAS TO 6 FT AS BUOYS NOT
INDICATING ANY 7-FT SEAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 78 / 60 60 20 50
STT 90 81 90 79 / 60 60 20 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64
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#1355 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:52 am

TD 2...struggles but figting to stay alive :) :darrow:
but she's a warrior
Image :cheesy:

Latest 11AM

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009

...DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST OR ABOUT
885 MILES...1425 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERTSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE SYSTEM COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.0N 37.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN
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#1356 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:55 am

Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 131433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TOO FEW TO GET A DATA-T
NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. SSMI/DATA AT ABOUT 09Z
SUGGESTED 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT IS USED
AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SSM/I AND AMSR-E PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR HAS WRAPPED ALMOST ALL
THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE
FACTORS...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...MAY BE PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM MAINTAINING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OVERALL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THATIF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS WOULD
LIKELY MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY THE
BAMM AND BAMS MODELS.

THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUS
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE HWRF AND GFDN SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
WITH THE HWRF MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BY 120 HR. BASED ON
THE FORECAST SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL
WAVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.0N 37.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.0N 39.1W 25 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 14.2N 41.3W 25 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 14.4N 43.9W 25 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 14.8N 46.6W 25 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 52.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 59.5W 25 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 22.0N 66.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1357 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:08 am

FireBird wrote:MsBee, could you tell me where in SXM that photo was taken? I used to live in Point Blanche (?) and then Cole Bay. It was a long time ago (1990-1991), and my last visit was 1994 (regrettably). I am always interested in the island as I view it as my second home. Thanks for keeping us informed, and continue to stay safe, esp. as we all look east for what next will come.
Carey


that photo was taken in Dutch Quarter on the way to Orleans.
if you haven't been back since 1994, I am afraid you wouldn't recognize the island now. It has been built up quite a bit.
where do you live now?

Barbara
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1358 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 13, 2009 1:07 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 885 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#1359 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 1:13 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W OR ABOUT
885 MILES...1425 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 13/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WNW AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 38W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS.


A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 22N NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N22W. A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 17W-30W. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS
.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 68W-72W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 63W-66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S HOWEVER OVER THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N26W 14N36W 9N46W
12N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA AT 31N83W TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 27N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-87W. 15 MINUTE LIGHTNING
DATA SHOWS FREQUENT LIGHTNING S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. OUTSIDE
AREAS OF CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO VARIABLE ACROSS
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE GULF N OF 23N. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE
GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N84W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S
MEXICO CENTERED AT 18N104W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER HAITI NEAR 20N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W TO 27N75W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
AT 39N27W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N63W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 21N22W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURES TO BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA
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Gustywind
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Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1360 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 13, 2009 1:19 pm

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 131759
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
159 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND TPW IMAGERY
SUGGEST DRIER AIR FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW
OVER THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS PROBABLY
OVER THE MONA CHANNEL BY NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER IN FOR THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY DIURNALLY
FORCED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LONGER TERM TROPICAL SITUATION WHICH
REMAINS VERY UNCLEAR AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. LATEST NHC ADVISORIES
AND DISCUSSION HAVE DOWNPLAYED TD 2 INTO A WEAK SYSTEM...AND
KEEPING IT AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS
SEEMINGLY GOOD NEWS...IT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE GOOD NEWS
REMAINS THAT A DEEP SAL LAYER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE
IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TRACK COULD
MEAN A MUCH CLOSER TRACK TO THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD THE SYSTEM
SURVIVE THE DRY AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH LARGE VARIABILITY IN
THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE...WILL TREND TOWARD ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY.

THE MAIN STORY STILL REMAINS THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF
AFRICA...WHICH HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT TO A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS...TAKING THE SYSTEM NE OF THE VI AND
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...GFS STILL TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER THE
ISLAND AND HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTIONS.
DEFINITELY CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON
.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE DAY...OVER 20 KT FOR TJBQ...AND DYING
DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 60 20 50 50
STT 80 90 79 90 / 60 20 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/93
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