ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Gustywind]

Climatalogicaly (spelling?) speaking - every single storm since 1900 forming in the area where both 90L and TD2 exist have recurved. Just a statement.

Unhopefully you were not in Guadeloupe in the 16th of September without roof and etc... Let's take it easy dolebot_Broward_NW

[Stormcenter]

Well that's strange now it shows the updated the frame...oh well sorry.

Not on the GFS frame you attached to your post.

Major hurricane near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

[KWT]

Looks a like a very deadly run to me, powerful hurricane as well it seems to suggest, its got borderline hurricane pressure and thats on a global model!

[cycloneye]

Dont like this run one bit,but tracks will continue to swing around run to run.Gustywind,it makes landfall at that beautiful butterfly island but tracks change as I said.

[gatorcane]

El Nino = shear = ongoing unfavorable conditions for cyclone development, no matter what comes off Africa...

That's not to say that it won't lessen from time to time (per the Andrew lesson), but we have all learned that El Nino periods (similar to 2006) usually will mean at least some shear most of the time, especially west of 50W, since the southwesterly shear originates over the eastern Pacific and flows over Central America and northeastward...

Frank

P.S. Derek, do the older models now have a built-in "El Nino" bias of some sort, or do they just interpret current upper air sounding data and nothing more?

you cant just say El nino is going to prevent significant development in the Atlantic. Unfortunately the media in South Florida here wants throw that el nino term around like it is a ticket out of a possible landfalling system this year.

Right now my concern is going out to Puerto Rico and the Leewards. The CONUS is so far out, we can worry about that later.

[Brent]

Not on the GFS frame you attached to your post.

Major hurricane near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

990-995 pressure on a global usually equals a major hurricane(of course if it verifies). The GFS will never showed 950 mb or something as the pressure.

[KWT]

Yeah but then again 90L isn't a storm yet is it???

A ha, but here we start to play semantics. By storm, of course I meant - any tropical weather system TD or higher, including sub and extratropical systems, as that is what my search was based upon.

Yup, not an absolutely true statement, but the only thing I was trying to say is that anything this far out is likely to recurve. Granted 90L might make it to 60W before forming, who knows, thats a different ball of wax at that point.

Yep very true, of course it could rake the islands and still recurve, just out of interest how many depressions formed at this point and managed to reach the Caribbean islands?

Also could you put that out to 30W for a depression forming, see what you get from there. I'd do it myself but I'm rather loaded up with other stuff!

[JPmia]

hey can you guys post a link to this GFS run? Thanks!

[Gustywind]

Looks like a solid hurricane east of the islands:

Yeah Brent, but he can go fish too close for comfort...just runs becoming more menacing

[Stormcenter]

See my post above....sorry again for the confusion.

Thank goodness this is the GFS model and a lot can still change.

Not on the GFS frame you attached to your post.

Major hurricane near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

990-995 pressure on a global usually equals a major hurricane(of course if it verifies). The GFS will never showed 950 mb or something as the pressure.

[lester]

hey can you guys post a link to this GFS run? Thanks!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[HURAKAN]

Possible development in 48 hours

[KWT]

Yes Leewards and PR have to be the biggest worry at this early stage, but cyconeye take heart that there is a lot of time yet and the ECM is very different in terms of track and timings.

However the 12z looks almost like a Hugo type strike on PR sadly...

[gatorcane]

Just remember, should this verify, the GFS sniffed this out long before the ECMWF or any other model did.

The GFS IS a good model not sure why people bash it or are in disbelief over it. If it is showing consistently a significant system into the Leewards or very close, one must pay attention to it. Keep in mind we are within a week timeframe now so model accuracy does increase some now.

[KWT]

Seems very reasonable to me Hurakan, also if you adjust TD2's track somewhat to the SW then you've very likely got a track similar to what 90L will likely take.

E.Caribbean needs to watch this, still early days but does seem at least a threat there.

[Brent]

Narrowly misses Florida and the SE Coast, hits the Outer Banks at 288 and approaching Long Island at 300, 312 is inland over Massachusetts.

[PTrackerLA]

So far, this 12z run looks very similar to what we have seen the past few days. The GFS has been consistent with the exception of the 06z run today. Looks like this run smashes the northern leewards, gets dangerously close to Florida before turning north with it's sights set on North Carolina/EC.

[KWT]

Yep Brent, that set-up is very tight though because it may not connect up with the trough quite well enough...

Very Floyd like:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

[JPmia]

to me it implies a more NW turn after PR...high is retreating east...the question is how much will the high retreat and how much will the storm turn NW or N...

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has a hit on Puerto Rico, Leewards and a very close call for Southern FL -- too close for a 240+ hour run in my opinion.

Will be watching closely on this one still.