Disturbance East of Bahamas

[jasons2k]

I say the thread title should denote present location of a system, not possible future location. Eliminate that Gulf thread for now.

Hey Guys and gals,

Just to clarify again - this thread is for this wave and this wave only. The title designates the location of the system. It may or may not end-up in the Gulf. We don't know that for sure yet. It could dissipate tomorrow. It could crash into Honduras. So this thread serves a specific purpose: discussion of this wave, whatever it may become or wherever it may go.

The gulf thread is an open thread about possible future development as seen by the models, etc. At one time the Gulf thread referenced the old Carribbean wave. Now the primary focus is around the possibilities with this wave but that could change in an instant. It might be the next wave, a "home grown" system, or nothing at all. It is not a system-specific thread; it's simply an open dicussion thread for now.

If you have any concerns or additional questions please PM a board staff member. Thank you!

[HURAKAN]

Active wave for our friends in the islands

[Sanibel]

This wave convected up a little but is still an open wave.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards are under an yellow alert tonight ( 5PM ) until tommorow for risk of strong showers and tstorms at 5 PM.
Numerous showers have been reported this afternoon accompanied by isolated tstorms. Moreover, Huc Msbee experienced (me too) some lightnings.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... xyrcir.png

does that show something trying to close off near northern islands a few hours ago ...i am not a genius at interpreting the 850 chart

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[HURAKAN]

Looks interesting

[bob rulz]

Wow, major flare-up of convection for this disturbance today. Could this become an invest sometime in the next couple of days?

[bob rulz]

Or am I looking at the wrong disturbance?

[ROCK]

Wow, major flare-up of convection for this disturbance today. Could this become an invest sometime in the next couple of days?

maybe but not betting the farm on it......WV sat view tells the tell. little ULL to the north and a bigger one to the west. Both enhancing the convection but also shearing the whole mess....best bet wait until it clears the islands....maybe get in a better environment....no model support unless you count the CMC from earlier today....

[bob rulz]

Wow, major flare-up of convection for this disturbance today. Could this become an invest sometime in the next couple of days?

maybe but not betting the farm on it......WV sat view tells the tell. little ULL to the north and a bigger one to the west. Both enhancing the convection but also shearing the whole mess....best bet wait until it clears the islands....maybe get in a better environment....no model support unless you count the CMC from earlier today....

Okay good, glad to know I WAS initially looking at the correct disturbance. I believe I get what the differences between this thread and the other one are now...

And yeah, I wouldn't count out this disturbance yet. I figured that the convective flare-up may have been due to increased shearing and looking at the maps I see that now. But we all know what can happen if a storm suddenly forms over the Bahamas and it appears to have a chance there, even without model support. Mother Nature doesn't care much about models.

[tolakram]

Shear dropping rapidly.



Flash visible loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/204.JPG

Water Vapor loop:


Can we get a subject change to better represent the current position?

[PTrackerLA]

Nice blowup of convection this afternoon, I see hints of an MLC and this wave has always seemed to have a very broad low level circulation. Something to keep an eye on but not overly concerned given the close upper level low.

[Recurve]

Something to focus on, maybe not for tropical development, but a potential moisture surge/rain event that could ruin a lot of people's day if there are floods, mudslides. Consensus seems to be not favorable to become a depression, but it sure seems like a good blob of convection at Hispanola and approaching the Bahamas.

Any current conditions ?

[Sanibel]

As long as the ULL is right into it, as it is, it shouldn't form. But something could develop at the surface if it gets worked up enough by the ULL.

[Recurve]

Sanibel, I see an ULL to the northeast on WV, is it that or somewhere else?
And is it causing shear or giving it some lift?
Not sure how unfavorable the conditions are, but a blob puffing along this close gets my attention. Even the seed of a tropical system getting into the stew near Andros is something I'd watch. In fact it has my full attention, the other areas can wait.

[Sanibel]

I see it to the SW of the main convection.


"Stew" is right. It's more humid here in the last few days with more overwater convection, including at night. I think the area is ripe for a system.

[Category6]

I'm not sure why this hasn't gotten more attention. I've been looking at it that least couple days and it has definitely gained more convection the last 12 hours or so. How bad is the shear around it? The NHC keeps saying it is in an unfavorable area for development. I do notice there is a ULL to the system's W and SW.

[Recurve]

On some of the IR I see the low to the southwest now. Doesn't seem that vigorous and I don't know about shear. To the NW on WV there's a feature drawing some moisture it's way, another ULL I guess. All I know is the blowup near Hispanola is kinda impressive at least right now.

Going to check some wind charts.

[Recurve]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=-2

These are showing, I think, lower convergence, upper divergence, shear trending downward.
Only vigorous vorticity is at 200mb nearby.

Anyone have a read on this?