ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

New Qscat out by the way people...Very interesting as it seems like the center has relocated or possibly even a new one is forming a little to the south closer to the deep convection, can see a clear wind shift at 12N with a circulation further south.

Very interesting!

[RL3AO]

[KWT]

Do you have the higher resolution version of that because you can really see the wind shift and the lower center that has been found.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 18Z GFS, it brings the system through Cuba and into Southern Florida now around 204 hours near major hurricane strength. The 18Z GFS track is similar to yesterday's 18Z track. What I am noticing is that the target for any kind of CONUS threat down the road keeps happening earlier each run -- which means it may not be too far fetched to say it has a possibility of impacting the SE US or CONUS within 10-12 days from now. If the timeframe was the same each run or getting pushed out further and further nearly always that means it will not happen and the GFS is picking up a phantom system.

Anyways still a long time to watch and alot can happen. The Leewards certainly look at risk but that can change also. The CONUS is a possible risk but its too far out to know for sure. Our first and foremost concern will be the Leewards for the next 5-7 days or so.

[Ivanhater]

New Qscat out by the way people...Very interesting as it seems like the center has relocated or possibly even a new one is forming a little to the south closer to the deep convection, can see a clear wind shift at 12N with a circulation further south.

Very interesting!

Just where the center develops will have great implication on track as well. Something we need to watch in the next couple days.

[gatorcane]

and again that is why I pointed out last night wait for the area to get organized. Some were mentioning that it was more north than the GFS was showing. I mentioned the convection would likely consolidate farther South as we are seeing. Its typical to see a wave barrel out from Africa into the Atlantic to have the convection on land dissipate and new convection form along another point of the Wave axis. Also the GFS was very consistent on where it would develop.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

Convection once again looks pretty pitiful, needs an increase in low level convergence, I suppose the shear thats present isn't helping it keep any decent convection either.

Seems like slow development in the next 2-3 days, still this sort of system with a track at least for the next 4-6 days in the deep tropics gives it plenty of time.

[Nederlander]

yea way too far out to. Models can change on a dime. Last year the models were showing Ike skirting up the east coast, and it was a lot closer to FL when the models showed that.. and well, we all know how that turned out. Hopefully the trof will pick it up sooner rather than later. If it does pick it up..

[shah8]

Well, it can do a Dolly or Helene and just be an invest or depression for a long, long, time.

[KWT]

Possibly, I think once it does develop some central convection it'll be upgraded right away, just waiting for that to occur. I tend to agree with Derek that this could still be 24-36hrs away yet but we shall see, surely just a matter of time.

[KWT]

GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp21.png

A little further to the north, probably because its stronger. Once again it takes a bit more of a northerlu jog around 72-96hrs before bending back to around 280. Still this run it does look like its going to miss the NE Caribbean. Still close enough to make the Caribbean sweat though!

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL

Wow,a big major tracking towards the northern Leewards.

[sunnyday]

Of course almost anything can happen in the tropics, but does anyone see a chance that this one could fizzle like td2, or do you feel it is a pretty sure bet to make a (major) hurricane?

[KWT]

Looks like its going to just skim past the northern Leewards, its quite close though and it wouldn't take much of an adjustment to have it smashing the NE Caribbean as a major hurricane, the threat clearly is there and its something you need to watch!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFDL just out and is interesting...moving WNW towards the NE Leewards then bends more back to the west towards the end. That is telling me it is sniffing out some kind of ridge across the Central/Western Atlantic that must be building in.

[Scorpion]

HWRF

[Stormcenter]

When you look at the GFS it always has to make you wonder why they even bother
going past 5 days. I like the EURO latest run......hmmm makes you wonder what it sees that the others are missing
or maybe vice versa.

[KWT]

Well never rule it out whilst its in its formative stage sunnyday but I think given all the models are developing this system odds are unlikely that it will face a fate like TD2, esp as that was the frontrunner system.

[Scorpion]

When you look at the GFS it always has to make you wonder why they even bother
going past 5 days. I like the EURO latest run......hmmm makes you wonder what it sees that the others are missing
or maybe vice versa.

More like what kind of stuff is it smoking.. no other model comes close to that solution