ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[CrazyC83]

New Qscat out by the way people...Very interesting as it seems like the center has relocated or possibly even a new one is forming a little to the south closer to the deep convection, can see a clear wind shift at 12N with a circulation further south.

Very interesting!

The QS images really aren't that precise for locating a center, particularly when it was covered by rain (rain flagged areas all across center). Could be off a degree or two, easily.

Yeah thats fair enough, I suppose its even worse with a borad circulation like we have anyway.

I think its still not quite there yet Crazy, getting closer and its structure cannot be ignored but I think tomorrow is most likely when we are going to see TD3.

A broad circulation is definitely not a tropical depression. It is just a low right now.

[KWT]

Also notice the center of 90L is now estimated to be at 11.5 based on the Quikscat image I suspect.

Still until this becomes stronger that center could still jump about.

[Aric Dunn]

convection is on the increase for sure... we have not seen that need of convection this far with the systems and its still expanding.

[HurricaneBelle]

The presentation on satellite reminds me of Wilma when she was a TD - large, sprawling, with more convection in the outer bands than near the center:

[Aric Dunn]

18Z GFDL just out and is interesting...moving WNW towards the NE Leewards then bends more back to the west towards the end. That is telling me it is sniffing out some kind of ridge across the Central/Western Atlantic that must be building in.

Actually I mentioned that earlier today when i saw the Deep Bamn (BamD) showing a hard left and wsw turn in the forecast for TD 2 which says the same thing you mentioned. There seems to be a possibility at least as of right now that the trough will lift out and a strong ridge building in. it look similar to Ike last year, the set up that is ..

notice the BAMD track.

[cycloneye]

I think that graphic was posted in the wrong thread.

[KWT]

Funnily enough it does sort of look like pre-Wilma I agree, you can see the weak convection over the center and the stroger bands...just proof as soon as ther eis decent convection a system can strengthen, or in Wilma cases, utterly explode!

Next 24hrs I think are going to be very interesting, I should think we will have TD3 at some point tomorrow, be it morning or later...

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that the HWRF and the GFDL are very similar. Last year, the HWRF runs were often to the right of the GFDL (Ike and Gustav I believe).

[littlevince]

eIR loop (1900z-0030z) with QS overlay

(Big file 3,2Mb)

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: I think that graphic was posted in the wrong thread.

No .. there was a reason i posted it.. explaining some synoptic set up possibilities..

[Emmett_Brown]

Water temps are nice and toasty once 90L moves past 40W. Gulf is almost soup temperature:

[Aric Dunn]

[jasons2k]

I'm starting to really not like the looks of this. I think Ana will be a hurricane within a few days. She will be far enough south of the SAL for the atmosphere ahead to remain moist. Overall, conditions look favorable for development. The high to its north looks like it will steer it W/WNW for quite awhile. For now, I don't think this will be a fish storm. But it's still early...we shall see.

Good luck to all this season.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFDL just out and is interesting...moving WNW towards the NE Leewards then bends more back to the west towards the end. That is telling me it is sniffing out some kind of ridge across the Central/Western Atlantic that must be building in.

Actually I mentioned that earlier today when i saw the Deep Bamn (BamD) showing a hard left and wsw turn in the forecast for TD 2 which says the same thing you mentioned. There seems to be a possibility at least as of right now that the trough will lift out and a strong ridge building in. it look similar to Ike last year, the set up that is ..

notice the BAMD track.

Ike was different at least for the synoptics in place for the week 7 days or so. Recall Ike started a bit farther north than this invest and moved nearly due west across the Atlantic then eventually WSW. This system is a bit more classical Cape Verde system that moves W to WNW across the MDR.

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As far as development is concerned that is not even a question. The question is when not if. Its lookin like this thing will be Ana within the next 48 hours or so. I will gladly place a bet with anyobdy who thinks this system is not going to become a named system.

[S.FLA STORM TRACKER]

Nice loop Aric,

The explosion of thunder storms to the south east, will they get rapped into the broad center or could a new center form there?

[Aric Dunn]

18Z GFDL just out and is interesting...moving WNW towards the NE Leewards then bends more back to the west towards the end. That is telling me it is sniffing out some kind of ridge across the Central/Western Atlantic that must be building in.

Actually I mentioned that earlier today when i saw the Deep Bamn (BamD) showing a hard left and wsw turn in the forecast for TD 2 which says the same thing you mentioned. There seems to be a possibility at least as of right now that the trough will lift out and a strong ridge building in. it look similar to Ike last year, the set up that is ..

notice the BAMD track.

Ike was different at least for the synoptics in place for the week 7 days or so. Recall Ike started a bit farther north than this invest and moved nearly due west across the Atlantic then eventually WSW. This system is a bit more classical Cape Verde system that moves W to WNW across the MDR.

lol.. i meant with the potential blocking ridge .... was not talking about being exact forecast..

[lonelymike]

Water temps are nice and toasty once 90L moves past 40W. Gulf is almost soup temperature:

True. But gulf and carrib have been very hostile to any kind of storm formation this year. Kind of evened things out.

[shah8]

Lonelymike, it only takes one during a just long enough window.

[HURAKAN]

Convection on the increase

[Blown Away]

These disturbances are moving painfully slow in the E Atlantic, I guess the trade winds are a bit weaker rate now! I'm used to 17-20 mph movement in this part of the Atlantic! If this disturbance does not turn into Ana at some point I will be shocked!