ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[wxman57]

For at least the next 3-4 days. Beyond that, slim chance of regeneration near the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

They leave the door slightly open if you read this part of discussion.

SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING...SO IF THE SYSTEM FINDS
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IT COULD REGENERATE.

[JonathanBelles]

Now will it become an invest?

[Cyclone1]

Now will it become an invest?

I'm sure they'll just leave it as O2L.

[CrazyC83]

Now will it become an invest?

Automatically does until it is removed on ATCF, it retains 02L though.

[cyclonic chronic]

Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 132041
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

WHILE PERSISTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS
TOO SMALL TO BE CLASSIFIED USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. INDEED...IT
HAS BEEN ALMOST 24 HR SINCE ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXISTED TO
GET A DATA-T NUMBER. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION HAS DECAYED
INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND A FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING A 25 KT INTENSITY
FOR THE REMNANTS THROUGH 120 HR. SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING...SO IF THE SYSTEM FINDS
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IT COULD REGENERATE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...IT
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENING TO A
TROPICAL WAVE...AND IF THIS OCCURS THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.



DEAD, it could still form more to the west, but for now, TA TA

[JonathanBelles]

So Invest 02L??

[CrazyC83]

So Invest 02L??

02L.TWO or 02L.NONAME, but essentially is an Invest.

[cycloneye]

816
ABNT20 KNHC 132340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS
LOCATED 1385 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS
AND REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Every night, it has flared up again at diurnal maximum...will it do so again? It still has a circulation, but no real convection - hence a tropical low.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC BAMS

They are still running for this.

WHXX01 KWBC 140030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWO (AL022009) 20090814 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090814 0000 090814 1200 090815 0000 090815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 39.0W 14.6N 40.9W 15.1N 42.8W 15.7N 45.7W
BAMD 14.2N 39.0W 14.8N 41.4W 15.6N 43.9W 16.7N 46.7W
BAMM 14.2N 39.0W 14.4N 40.9W 14.8N 43.0W 15.2N 45.7W
LBAR 14.2N 39.0W 14.4N 41.0W 15.1N 43.5W 15.9N 46.5W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090816 0000 090817 0000 090818 0000 090819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 49.6W 20.5N 58.8W 24.6N 66.4W 28.8N 69.9W
BAMD 18.1N 49.7W 21.2N 55.3W 23.0N 59.9W 23.0N 64.4W
BAMM 16.0N 49.0W 17.7N 57.4W 20.1N 66.0W 22.9N 72.4W
LBAR 16.8N 49.9W 19.0N 57.1W 20.9N 64.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 39KTS 43KTS 45KTS
DSHP 34KTS 39KTS 43KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 39.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 37.2W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 35.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[capepoint]

P-O-O on the POOF scale.........

[Hurricaneman]

it got sheared to death and 90L didnt do it any favors

[HURAKAN]

First time in a long time that storms are trying to form to the east of the circulation

[Macrocane]

Felicia had less convection and it was kept as a TS for a few days, though I guess it was because of the wind speed.

[thetruesms]

[img]http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/GOES03152009226DxH2oZ.jpg[img]


First time in a long time that storms are trying to form to the east of the circulation

Still has a lot working against it, but at the very least, that's a very intriguing development.

[Aric Dunn]

its not dead yet people... lol

[Aric Dunn]

actually the way that little bit of convection is rotating around would not be surprised to see a larger burst soon..

[HURAKAN]

actually the way that little bit of convection is rotating around would not be surprised to see a larger burst soon..

[HouTXmetro]

The feature formerly known as TD 2 is showing signs of life.