1998

[Andrew92]

I just had a thought about this hurricane season......

Remember the hurricane season of 1998? By now we had already had Alex, a weak Cape Verde tropical storm that really never got off the ground. But just imagine if that storm had never occurred, but the rest of the season played out.

That's right, we would have been at the same position in 1998 as we are now if not for Alex: without any named storms (albeit, no two tropical depressions either). Bonnie did not become a named tropical storm until August 20. Take out Alex, and 1998 would have been one of the latest starts ever as well, and yet the numbers would have looked been 13/10/3.

I'm not saying this will be another 1998, especially given the El Nino, but it is something to think about as we get ready for the possibility of Ana to develop in the Atlantic.

-Andrew92

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I dont understand why people on this board try to compare hurricane seasons. Its always bothered me. you cant compare any season and to do so is silly. They are all different.Thus they should be treated different. Any mention to relevant past seasons is coincidental and gives a false impression for the season.

[Macrocane]

I've had the same thought too, but as you said El Niño makes different this season in fact 1998 was a La Niña, although El Niño is not a strong one at this moment and I don't think it will be as strong as some models are showing and that would open a window for higher activity than expected. I like active seasons but not destructive ones and I hope this season won't be like 1998 'cause we don't want another Georges nor another Mitch.

[Macrocane]

I dont understand why people on this board try to compare hurricane seasons. Its always bothered me. you cant compare any season and to do so is silly. They are all different.Thus they should be treated different. Any mention to relevant past seasons is coincidental and gives a false impression for the season.

Yes we can compare it's part of something called climatology and that is usefull to give us an idea of how things will be, though I agree that they can give a false impression and that's why it has to be used carefully.

[blp]

Interesting that you mention 1998. I was just thinking about Hurricane Georges before I read your post and how similar the recent GFS runs on 90L have been to that storms track. Not trying to predict 90L's future or anything. Intersting stuff....

I just had a thought about this hurricane season......

Remember the hurricane season of 1998? By now we had already had Alex, a weak Cape Verde tropical storm that really never got off the ground. But just imagine if that storm had never occurred, but the rest of the season played out.

That's right, we would have been at the same position in 1998 as we are now if not for Alex: without any named storms (albeit, no two tropical depressions either). Bonnie did not become a named tropical storm until August 20. Take out Alex, and 1998 would have been one of the latest starts ever as well, and yet the numbers would have looked been 13/10/3.

I'm not saying this will be another 1998, especially given the El Nino, but it is something to think about as we get ready for the possibility of Ana to develop in the Atlantic.

-Andrew92

[bob rulz]

I dont understand why people on this board try to compare hurricane seasons. Its always bothered me. you cant compare any season and to do so is silly. They are all different.Thus they should be treated different. Any mention to relevant past seasons is coincidental and gives a false impression for the season.

I think the point he's trying to make is just because the season has started so late doesn't mean it's going to be inactive, and 1998 is a good example of that. 2004 is another but by this point in 2004 the season was already in full-swing.

[Ptarmigan]

1950 was a late started. Started in mid-August and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy was 243, second only to 2005.