ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

If there is some good news for the NE Caribbean is the jump more north of the center shown by the QS.

[cycloneye]

To close for comfort from 06z GFDL.



06z HWRF is a little more south than GFDL.

[artist]

[KWT]

HWRF is quite slow in strengthening 90L, only just a TS by 60hrs and doesn't really get going till about 84hrs when it strengthens quicker. I guess thats where the latitude difference between the GFDL and the HWRF comes from.

[Normandy]

Just checked in to see 90L. Still is straddling the 12 N line, really has not gained much latitude since yesterday (if at all). It definitely is organizing though. The quicker this develops the better for the islands, as it would move more poleward. The QSCAT still shows that it might need another day because of how broad the low is, which isn't good news. I can't wait to see if the EURO maintains its outlier position.

[KWT]

Indeed cycloneye that is good news, every little jump is a good thing. Though to be fair the GFDL and HWRF both seem to jump upto 12.5 ish and they both still come very close indeed it appears. The key to me is if it gets north of 15N before 50W the risk goes down, if it doesn't then the chances increase of a hit.

Also got to admit, thats an amazing circulation there!

Edit, as I said before history has shown us if it becomes a depression before 30W then it has a decent chance of missing the islands but after that and the risk sharply increases.

[cycloneye]

Yes,15N-50W is the box for us.

[jasons2k]

HWRF is quite slow in strengthening 90L, only just a TS by 60hrs and doesn't really get going till about 84hrs when it strengthens quicker. I guess thats where the latitude difference between the GFDL and the HWRF comes from.

The slower solution on the HWRF is probably more accurate. It's still very broad so it will take the system awhile to tighten-up and for winds to respond. Once it gets going & tighter, it can strengthen at a faster rate. But it looks good on satellite today so it's about time for this to happen.

[KWT]

If it gets north of that 15N line before 50W then odds of a NE hit go down though I am worried about the bend back west a few models are suggesting, the GFS being one of those that shunt it back from WNW towards due west after 96hrs.

Going to be a long 2 weeks, 90L looks like it'll be with us in some shape and form for at least the next 10 days, be it smashing into the Carribean and/or US or recurving.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Obviously the models will still wobble a lot, but am I correct in assuming that that's a remarkably tight model cluster for that far out? Or is it about normal?

I agree that they all seem to be quite agreeable, but since you really can only trust all of these to about where the spaghetti crosses 45W in that graphic, its sort of useless.

Later on if this storm devs I'm going to try and remember to plot actual track vs. this spaghetti plot. I'm really interested in the results.

[KWT]

Well I'm going to keep an eye also on the speed of the system since that is going to have a vital role to play in whether it recurve early like the ECM or not. ECM has it about 43W in 90hrs, GFS between 48-50W...we shall see whats closest, right now its about 26W I'd imagine.

[Frank2]

Most models have been showing the ridge displaced to the east since early this week, so that's a good sign as far as it recurving...

Good morning all...

[KWT]

Yeah I'm not sure I totally buy the idea the GFS is showing, however Frank I've got a sneaky feeling the trough won't be digging down too far and so whilst I think it will lift NW I suspect if it does strike the NE Caribbean or close its going to end up getting close to the Bahamas before lifting up and that then leaves a big risk for the Carolinas. Its a set-up that has happened utterly countless times in the past.

[Frank2]

After looking at the GFS loop, it seems to ignore the high being fairly weak and displaced to the east...

That's the problem with models beyond 3 days or more - the cone of error is too wide for them to be of any real use (other than making the public nervous)...

P.S. To my surprise, the NHC has backed off just a bit and changed their wording to "gradually better organized" for this disturbance, so, we'll see what happens - perhaps they are not convinced that the dry air will not be a factor, as it was for TD2...

[gatorcane]

After looking at the GFS loop, it seems to ignore the high being fairly weak and displaced to the east and brings the system south of Florida and into the Gulf...

That's the problem with models beyond 3 days or more - the cone or error is too wide for them to be of any real use (other than making the public nervous)...

P.S. To my surprise, the NHC has backed off just a bit and now is wording "gradually better organized" to this disturbance, so, we'll see what happens - perhaps they are not convinced that the dry air will not be a factor, as it was for TD2...

Precisely. Long-range models can be quite inaccurate, but not always. Frank its really not a question of "if" but "when" this system develops. We cannot say whether Florida or the CONUS could be impacted at this point. Is it possible? Certainly is with the synoptics setting up so we just need to watch and see. That is all you can do at this point. It's just too far out. Personally I think the ECMWF is a bit off at this point and would go more with the GFS and other models that send it further west.

[JPmia]

Well all I can say is that I pray that whoever said it was going to be a Cat 3 in 5 days west of PR is wrong.

Our island has 1 "official" hurricane shelter that holds about 250 people and we have a population of 9,000. I am sure some of the churches will independently open but they are all very small. I guess it is time to call the mayor's office to ask them what they plan to do about this.

Now would be a good time to *think* about what you plan to do in case you have to evacuate/shelter in place. Vieques is special to me as I spent some time there on vacation in 2007...beautiful island. Let's hope the outlier models become the mean. As of now, it looks very close for you folks in the NE Caribb.

[Frank2]

It'll be interesting to see what the next GFS run shows - it's bound to "weathervane", so, hopefully it'll begin to pick up on the weakness in the ridge, since there is definitely a considerable weakness west of 50W that is well-established...

P.S. I'd be interested to hear what the professional meteorologists here have to say per the above comment (since I worked for 'em, not with 'em)...

LOL

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090814 1200 090815 0000 090815 1200 090816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 26.5W 12.7N 29.7W 12.7N 33.8W 12.4N 38.0W
BAMD 12.1N 26.5W 12.3N 29.1W 12.5N 32.0W 12.7N 35.3W
BAMM 12.1N 26.5W 12.4N 29.5W 12.4N 33.1W 12.2N 36.9W
LBAR 12.1N 26.5W 12.4N 29.4W 12.8N 33.0W 13.3N 37.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090816 1200 090817 1200 090818 1200 090819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 42.2W 10.9N 48.4W 12.3N 51.4W 17.5N 56.4W
BAMD 13.0N 38.9W 14.1N 46.1W 15.2N 52.4W 16.7N 58.3W
BAMM 11.9N 40.7W 12.0N 46.8W 13.8N 51.2W 17.4N 57.2W
LBAR 13.6N 41.6W 13.9N 50.3W 14.9N 52.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 59KTS 77KTS 89KTS 93KTS
DSHP 59KTS 77KTS 89KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 26.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 24.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 22.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxman57]

The things I see that might prevent this system from being upgraded today is if the easterly shear over it now increases. Most of the convection this morning appears to be west of the center. Also the center still looks broad and not entirely closed on the QS.

Good observation. That's what I see. Shear is hitting it - the same shear that ripped TD 2 apart. The center is east of the convection. And that convection is still rather weak. I don't think it'll be classified as a TD today unless some major changes occur during the day. And I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive the shear.

[Stormcenter]

That would be wonderful news. Isn't this (shear) typical of a El Nino type season?

The things I see that might prevent this system from being upgraded today is if the easterly shear over it now increases. Most of the convection this morning appears to be west of the center. Also the center still looks broad and not entirely closed on the QS.

Good observation. That's what I see. Shear is hitting it - the same shear that ripped TD 2 apart. The center is east of the convection. And that convection is still rather weak. I don't think it'll be classified as a TD today unless some major changes occur during the day. And I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive the shear.