Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[Portastorm]

Completely unimpressed this morning by the Carribbean wave/TUTT low. Not much convection. Seen more out of the last few mesoscale systems that rolled south through Texas. I hope this puppy perks up some as it crosses the Gulf as we need that rainfall!

[Nederlander]

Convection has been firing up in the evening with this little guy. Let's see how it looks tonight. Pretty rough conditions for any kind of development though.. Just a rainmaker for now..

[lrak]

Whats just north or the eastern part of Cuba, the ULL? It sure looks like its sucking in clouds at the lower levels. And there is a naked swirl just south of Cuba on the visible satellite loop.

[N2Storms]

[quote="lrak"]Whats just north or the eastern part of Cuba, the ULL? It sure looks like its sucking in clouds at the lower levels. And there is a naked swirl just south of Cuba on the visible satellite loop.[/quote]


Just watched that little video on Accuwx and they still seem to think there is a chance for something to spin up once it reaches the GOM...local Met here said that conditions were not going to be favorable for developement and he just doesn't see this as being anything more than rain maker that should eventually make it's way wwd towards SW Louisiana and Tex sometime next week

[lrak]

Man I sure hope it makes it to the coast, we have black clay in my area and the clay cracks that we have around here are DEEP. Looks like a little earthquake has happened. Thank goodness for my rebar slab!

[tailgater]

Weak low forming? South of Panama city.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
should track westward non tropical.

Hello, anyone seeing this?

[lrak]

I see it tailgater, but it looks like outflow boundries making it look like a spin?

The little naked spin south of Cuba looks cool. It has one thunderstorm next to it

[psyclone]

i am under that deep cloud canopy here. so far all of the storms are staying offshore but the heavy clouds are keeping temps in check. the gulf is just obnoxiously warm. when i was walking the beach last evening i could just feel the heat radiating off the surface (water temps are just below 90 here). it is a steaming cauldron so if something does fire off under favorable conditions it could get ugly.

[lrak]

Something is definitely happening north of Cuba...is that an ULL? It sure look like a LL spin heading for Florida, and the last visible satellite loop looks like some rain bands are wrapping around a center.

[lrak]

Sorry for the bump but I don't like my post count being 666

[tailgater]

Something is definitely happening north of Cuba...is that an ULL? It sure look like a LL spin heading for Florida, and the last visible satellite loop looks like some rain bands are wrapping around a center.

Looking at the 850mb and 200mb vorticities there seems to be both an upper and lower level voricity in that area.

[Kludge]

Whats just north or the eastern part of Cuba, the ULL? It sure looks like its sucking in clouds at the lower levels. And there is a naked swirl just south of Cuba on the visible satellite loop.

Not to predict this spinning-up... but their are lots of analogs to 1983:
- we'd made it to Aug 14 with no named storms in the Atlantic
- lots of shear in the carrib, very warm water in the gulf
- a trough was hanging around in the gulf on Aug 14
- TS Alicia formed out of that trough on the 15th

And as you all know, Alicia hit Houston/Galveston as a level 3 hurricane. We only had 4 named storms that year.

I'm just sayin'... everything has to be watched closely at this point.

[srainhoutx]

Whats just north or the eastern part of Cuba, the ULL? It sure looks like its sucking in clouds at the lower levels. And there is a naked swirl just south of Cuba on the visible satellite loop.

Not to predict this spinning-up... but their are lots of analogs to 1983:
- we'd made it to Aug 14 with no named storms in the Atlantic
- lots of shear in the carrib, very warm water in the gulf
- a trough was hanging around in the gulf on Aug 14
- TS Alicia formed out of that trough on the 15th

And as you all know, Alicia hit Houston/Galveston as a level 3 hurricane. We only had 4 named storms that year.

I'm just sayin'... everything has to be watched closely at this point.

Great post Kludge. You've been keeping quiet as of late. I do agree with trough in the GOM. Add a little deep tropics moisture (tropical wave) and just perhaps a MCV in the mix, and away we go.

[vbhoutex]

Whats just north or the eastern part of Cuba, the ULL? It sure looks like its sucking in clouds at the lower levels. And there is a naked swirl just south of Cuba on the visible satellite loop.

Not to predict this spinning-up... but their are lots of analogs to 1983:
- we'd made it to Aug 14 with no named storms in the Atlantic
- lots of shear in the carrib, very warm water in the gulf
- a trough was hanging around in the gulf on Aug 14
- TS Alicia formed out of that trough on the 15th

And as you all know, Alicia hit Houston/Galveston as a level 3 hurricane. We only had 4 named storms that year.

I'm just sayin'... everything has to be watched closely at this point.

Oh , the memories!! Where was I August 14, 1983? In FWB area with my family and p's. My Dad and I were watching the set up(he knew his weather and passed it on to me) and saying, all we need is a trigger. Voila! Here comes the MCS heading S off to out West and we have to drive back to Houston through the Northern part of that MCS(torrential rains). SOB followed me home!!! The rest is history.
Definitely watching the GOM right now, both the North and Southeast areas to see what happens. Hope that uneasy feeling in the tummy is just hunger.

[tolakram]

New blob.



4. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[JonathanBelles]

I'm in a code yellow! Woohoo! lol

Anyway, because I am I will be posting observations here and on twitter (fact789) until the Code Yellow is dropped.

Current weather: Scattered thunder and light rain, overcast and cool.

[lrak]

Weak low forming? Just south of Panama city.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
should track westward non tropical.

You noticed this before the hurricane center...I wonder if they were reading this thread

[CrazyC83]

What is the trajectory of this low? Could this pull an Humberto or something?

[tailgater]

Weak low forming? Just south of Panama city.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
should track westward non tropical.

You noticed this before the hurricane center...I wonder if they were reading this thread

Sometimes I would think so if I didn't know better. Well I'm off to W.Va on a little weekend run don't let anything develop while I'm gone.

[JonathanBelles]

NAM shows the WC of FL dealing with a cyclone Sunday. Tampa ABC Met said and showed the same with the Titan model.