ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[cycloneye]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Aric Dunn]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

lol...
anyway if td 2 speeds up as forecast.. they the shear affects will be reduced... shear is down to 10 to 15 kts
and if it speeds up then we can cut that down even more allowing for intensification until that sw shear come.. if at all ..

[Brent]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Very interesting... and surprising.

[floridasun78]

i be intest to see what it do overnight what nhc say 8am

[RL3AO]

AL, 02, 2009081406, , BEST, 0, 144N, 400W, 25, 1008, LO

[artist]

[artist]

seems to still be hanging in there.

[srainhoutx]

238
WHXX01 KWBC 141233
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1233 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWO (AL022009) 20090814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090814 1200 090815 0000 090815 1200 090816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 41.7W 15.3N 43.8W 16.0N 46.4W 17.3N 49.8W
BAMD 14.6N 41.7W 15.4N 44.0W 16.4N 46.6W 17.7N 49.5W
BAMM 14.6N 41.7W 15.2N 43.7W 15.8N 46.1W 16.7N 48.9W
LBAR 14.6N 41.7W 15.2N 44.0W 15.9N 46.5W 16.9N 49.6W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090816 1200 090817 1200 090818 1200 090819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 54.1W 22.3N 62.2W 25.5N 68.6W 27.8N 72.2W
BAMD 19.1N 52.4W 21.6N 58.0W 23.1N 63.0W 23.2N 67.5W
BAMM 17.5N 52.3W 19.4N 59.5W 21.0N 66.2W 22.1N 72.1W
LBAR 18.1N 53.1W 20.9N 59.9W 24.4N 65.4W 26.3N 54.5W
SHIP 39KTS 47KTS 53KTS 55KTS
DSHP 39KTS 47KTS 53KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 41.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 39.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 37.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[artist]

interesting it is up to 55 kts according to that ships

[canes04]

Don't give up on this one, it seems to be a fighter!!
Conditions should improve over the next few days and this could make a comeback!

[AtlanticWind]

Look at the Bamm Deep. it turns it dead west at he end of the run.

[AtlanticWind]

Don't give up on this one, it seems to be a fighter!!
Conditions should improve over the next few days and this could make a comeback!

I have been keeping an eye out, This could really be our first threat as some of the models seem to be trending westward.

[srainhoutx]

Back to Code Orange...



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

Visable Image

[KWT]

Could be a system that sneaks up when no one is expecting, will be interesting to see what this one eventually does but as I said in the 90L thread, both these disturbances will surely find better conditions aloft eventually.

[cycloneye]

Recon for Sunday afternoon

Also the the G-IV will fly this afternoon a research mission.

NOUS42 KNHC 141400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 14 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-078

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
FOR 16/1800Z NEAR 17.0N AND 55.0W ON THE REMNANTS
OF TD-02.
3. NOTE: 1- THE G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
THE REMNANTS OF TD-02 TODAY DEPARTING TBPB 14/2000Z.
2- BOTH NOAA43 AND G-IV WILL FLY RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN AND AROUND THE REMNANTS OT TD-02 DEPARTING TBPB
15/2000Z.

[hurricanefloyd5]

don't think it could pull an andrew and pop uotta nowhere at the last min. do ya??????????

[artist]

Recon for Sunday afternoon

Also the the G-IV will fly this afternoon a research mission.

NOUS42 KNHC 141400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 14 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-078

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
FOR 16/1800Z NEAR 17.0N AND 55.0W ON THE REMNANTS
OF TD-02.
3. NOTE: 1- THE G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
THE REMNANTS OF TD-02 TODAY DEPARTING TBPB 14/2000Z.
2- BOTH NOAA43 AND G-IV WILL FLY RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN AND AROUND THE REMNANTS OT TD-02 DEPARTING TBPB
15/2000Z.

interesting cycloneye. Will we have a recon thread even though it is a research mission?for todays flight

[cycloneye]

interesting cycloneye. Will we have a recon thread even though it is a research mission?for todays flight

senorpepr is the one who knows all about getting the obs and other data.I am sure that he will make a recon thread.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think spock needs to take a tri-corder reading, there are still signs of life Jim..