ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Derek Ortt]

the patterns flown may not be the standard operational patterns

[cycloneye]

Derek,what do you mean when you say it may not be a standard operational patterns?

[Derek Ortt]

it means the flight patterns are tailored specifically for their research mission. That's why some of the central Atlantic patterns are not figure 4s for the P3

[chris_fit]

Looks to me like ex TD2 has a nice blow up in the last several hours. If it persists I see no reason why this wouldn't be upgraded to TD or TS. Latest blowup is right over the center, so perhaps the shear has let up a little bit.

[KWT]

Well to its west the shear doesn't look quite so bad so its probably getting past the worst of it now, you can also tell by the slight shift in the shear vector as well this is occuring.

This is also what wil happen to 90L I think, struggle till about 40-45W then reach more favorable conditions.

[Sanibel]

This is also what wil happen to 90L I think, struggle till about 40-45W then reach more favorable conditions.

Which is a perfect set-up for waiting until it gets closer to land to build up to its worst isn't it?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).

Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.

Jeff Masters

[KWT]

I wonder whether we will have a code red for this soon?

[OuterBanker]

TD2 just might yet become Ana. It looks better right now than it ever has and what is interesting is that the convection blow up is centered over the llc. That has not happened yet.

[wxman57]

It looks better than 90L, and better than when it was classified as TD 2. So why isn't it a TD now?

Note that the upper low/trof to its NW (see WV loop) is likely enhancing the outflow and contributing to the current burst of convection. What happens after it passes the trof axis is the big question. Can it maintain the convection once it gets its engine started?

[cycloneye]

You are right 57,look at that.

[artist]

It looks better than 90L, and better than when it was classified as TD 2. So why isn't it a TD now?

I have been wondering the same wxman57. They are flying research into it as well as still running the ships on. And with it looking as good as it does, just doesn't make sense.

[cycloneye]

It wont be too long until NHC classifies again as a TD.

[hurricanefloyd5]

It wont be too long until NHC classifies again as a TD.

This could be ANA but it's a race against time to see which one will be ana!!!!!!

[tolakram]

Very little shear, so if I understand Ort's theory correctly the dry air should no longer be a big issue.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Seems this system is able to keep enough convection going from the ITCZ moisture to the south and oddly enough 90L to the east, compared the dry air to the west and north. I think what we are seeing is that it's a small system and is VERY responsive to shear. The dry easterly shear that was killing it has been clamped off by 90L. I'd say it might pulse back and forth for another day or so depending on dry air as it heads to warmer waters and higher OHC. Then we could see more strengthening

[KWT]

It sure is looking a lot like a tropical depression again I have to admit though given the way its convection has been over the last 24hrs they will probably hold back for a while yet, unless the research mission shows this is stronger then we think...

TD2 goes back into the lead to be Ana!

[Evil Jeremy]

If the convection persists like this I think we will get code red at 2 PM. Ironically, I think that TD2 went from code orange to TD while skipping code red, so this would be its first time at code red.

[Gustywind]

Making a come-back...

[Gustywind]

Is that some banding trying to form in its periphery?


Repopping steadily and moisturizes the atmosphere behind for 90L...