ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Brent]

12z GFS once again wallops the NE Caribbean, landfall according to the GFS now about 5 days time, so things are going to start getting interesting soon it seems...

I know this is a 90L thread but TD2 keeps being brought up. Is it TD2 or 90L that you quote as arriving in 5 days? I thought 90L was at leats 10 days away from the islands.

90L will be to the Antilles on Wednesday and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Always been the timeframe.

[knotimpaired]

12z GFS once again wallops the NE Caribbean, landfall according to the GFS now about 5 days time, so things are going to start getting interesting soon it seems...

I know this is a 90L thread but TD2 keeps being brought up. Is it TD2 or 90L that you quote as arriving in 5 days? I thought 90L was at leats 10 days away from the islands.

90L will be to the Antilles on Wednesday and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Always been the timeframe.

Luis,

Are you hearing the same thing?

K

[BensonTCwatcher]

so that means Miami is safe (sarcastic) according to Derek ( I think he wanted the GFS with the crosshairs on Miami) I hope that does not verify, major hits on people. I think we have time see weakness develop and possible recurve

ala TD-02, GFS does not have it?

[Ola]

I told my daughter she wont have school on next thursday, and she keeps asking my why not. I told her its a surprise that I cant tell her about just yet.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is still very insistent on this going west, run after run after run. The 12Z is going west yet again. I think the ECMWF is suspect and the GFS is handling ridge/trough setup better than the ECMWF at this point. Leewards, Caribbean, and Southern Florida will be watching closely.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO will come to terms soon enough....It's one of the best (IMHO). GFS is not going to be 100% correct this far out.

NOLA, Panhandle, Bermuda, West Florida.....come on, we all know this.

[gatorcane]

12Z would put metro South Florida on the bad side of this system not to mention a direct hit for the Florida Keys --- of course this run will change so no need for concern. We know the lessen here. Ike is a good example. This thing could be 5 days out and still veer off.

In addition Haiti, PR, and the Leewards hit hard.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... s_ten_216l.

[tolakram]

Looks like almost 20 knots of shear now.

[Stormcenter]

You forgot the East Coast.

EURO will come to terms soon enough....It's one of the best (IMHO). GFS is not going to be 100% correct this far out.

NOLA, Panhandle, Bermuda, West Florida.....come on, we all know this.

[robbielyn]

Obviously til we get a td or better yet a ts these spaghetti models are just guessing. I am surprised that they are so tight for such a long track. Kinda a scary when you think of how they are jumping on this so adamantly. Maybe they will stay south like the last two years and hit mexico. We don't need any now.

[David in FL]

12z GFS once again wallops the NE Caribbean, landfall according to the GFS now about 5 days time, so things are going to start getting interesting soon it seems...

I know this is a 90L thread but TD2 keeps being brought up. Is it TD2 or 90L that you quote as arriving in 5 days? I thought 90L was at leats 10 days away from the islands.

90L will be to the Antilles on Wednesday and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Always been the timeframe.

Ummm??? What are you talking about. 90L is at the very least 8 or 9 days away. not 5 or 6.

[Stormcenter]

Is it safe to say that something (trough) may or will be influencing 90L's movement more northward as it moves closer to the U.S.?

[Brent]

Ummm??? What are you talking about. 90L is at the very least 8 or 9 days away. not 5 or 6.

Uh no. Look at the timestamp on the GFS. It'll be there Wednesday/Thursday.

[Scorpion]

Ummm??? What are you talking about. 90L is at the very least 8 or 9 days away. not 5 or 6.

5 days from Antilles, 6 days from Puerto Rico.

[Gustywind]

12z GFS once again wallops the NE Caribbean, landfall according to the GFS now about 5 days time, so things are going to start getting interesting soon it seems...

I know this is a 90L thread but TD2 keeps being brought up. Is it TD2 or 90L that you quote as arriving in 5 days? I thought 90L was at leats 10 days away from the islands.

10 days? Sure? it's long...7 days max i tkink...

[bucman1]

Good afternoon To all,

Sanibel,I have a question for you-Why would an Antilles hit increase the likehood of a WEst Coast of Floridaq hit?

By the way Donna came to my mind also as this has the possibility of going up the spine of the state.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC brushes northern Leewards



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Bgator]

Just pointing out that the GFS would have this hitting very close to Miami, a day before Andrew hit Miami 17 years ago.

[Derek Ortt]

I told my daughter she wont have school on next thursday, and she keeps asking my why not. I told her its a surprise that I cant tell her about just yet.

your daughter may not have school for a few weeks after Wednesday

also, this now looks close to TD status

[cycloneye]

this now looks close to TD status

What do you see that you think is close?