ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Cookie]

can anyone help give a quick summary of whats happening with this. i was last online last night we where on page 3 now where on page 17

Cookie,


Hope this helps.

thanks

[KWT]

Some of the GFS models are taking this system WSW soon, thats going to be interesting to watch and see if that happens, given what TD2 did in this region it seems quite possible as well.

Still once aain except the 12z ECM, the models are horrid for the NE Caribbean, with the shifting SW of the models PR and Hispanola.

[Ivanhater]

Apparently, from what Im hearing, it still recurves. Just further southwest than the 00Z run. It doesnt seem to be handling this one very well.

Unless of course the storm really does recurve ... then we'll all be singing praises to the ECMWF ...

Lol. True. Though With all the other models in good agreement, and with the further shift south, I think the Euro is the odd man out.

[Derek Ortt]

its accelerating, not sure what EC is thinking this time

[Lurker]

What did Joe B say?

Well most models still taking this into the Caribbean region, if anything there has been a slight shift to the SW today which is certainly a worrying trend.

Despite what Joe B has said I still think we are in a phase were Florida/Gulf is at the biggest threat.

[KWT]

Yet another hurricane that could be somewhat similar is David from 1979...whilst I think there are other hurricanes that are closer if this trend SW continues then that system is one that comes into play as well.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF,Recurve

Same scenario from this model.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Ivanhater]

its accelerating, not sure what EC is thinking this time

If I remember correctly from last year, I forget what storm it was (maybe Ike). The Euro was the last model to budge to show the storm recurving, then finally shifted.

[cycloneye]

KWT,is now moving more faster 14kts.That may be important down the road as I know.

[Sanibel]

Serious model conflict there Cycloneye. GFDL tends to be good in the 48 hour range, but mostly with formed deep storms. I guess if it trends south over the next 2 days the recurve models should be disregarded and vice versa.

[KWT]

To be fair Derek the 12z ECM is a lot faster then its 0z run, it reaches 40W nearly 24hrs faster on this run. Even so its still a little slower then the other models.

Its clearly a total outlier now, and you got to think it will buckle.

We just need to hope that center forms as far north as possible!

[KWT]

Very important Cycloneye, it also raises the odds of a Caribbean strike...also means the earlier ECM runs were totally out to sea and event the new faster 12z ECM is now probably too slow..

It also though gives it less time to become a monster, esp if it takes another 24hrs to get itself really organised.

[Scorpion]

Very important Cycloneye, it also raises the odds of a Caribbean strike...also means the earlier ECM runs were totally out to sea and event the new faster 12z ECM is now probably too slow..

It also though gives it less time to become a monster, esp if it takes another 24hrs to get itself really organised.

5 days is plenty of time to become a major

[KWT]

Yeah not denying its plenty of time, thats more out of hope then anything else Scorpion.

It certainly screams major hurricane to me, barring any unexpected shear region popping up as the models sometimes do miss them.

Any hurricane on this sort of track has a good shot at becoming a major hurricane down the line.

[Aric Dunn]

there is clearly some dry air on the NE side of the system .. this is keeping it in check along with the shear.

all this should keep it on a more westerly course... which means the islands are looking more likely to be impacted .. as for strength thats a different story .

[Sanibel]

Better form now. Plenty of ITCZ energy being pulled in from the south.


All systems go unfortunately.

[KWT]

Just another historical note.

If 90L developed right now at 28.8 west and 12.5 north then most systems do stll recurve however a fair few still do impact land before that occurs. A couple hit the gulf, about 5-6 hit the east coast and about 7-8 hit the Caribbean. As expected Dean totally stands out alone.

However since its not forming now the system is still heading just north of west and thus the further west it goes, the higher the odd of a hit go...

Still looking at it despite the shear, probably will have a TD by the time I get up tomorrow!

[Brent]

HPC Day 6 and 7 positions:

[KWT]

Very interesting, maybe a touch too far north given all the models have shifted SW tonight, even the ultra recurving ECM, but the idea is clearly right IMO.

[jlauderdal]

that 999 low isnt going to scare me, of course this probably way underdone in this run

999mb in a model with a 1 degree resolution for a hurricane is not something you want to see... lets just put it that way

The global models like the GFS don't have the resolution to show how strong the storm will really be. Normally a 999mb storm is a weak tropical storm, but on a global model, that could be a very strong hurricane.

exactly and like i said originally this is probably underdone at least for now