ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 90L

#721 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:29 pm

i have seen storms deal with a lot more SAL than this and done just fine... i think he may have been talking about the winds... i think the big thing is the circulation is just too large and is struggling to consolidate.. but it will do it and once it does, the larger circulation will help protect the core from the negatives that it may run into down the road...





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#722 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:34 pm

Yeah as I said before these large circulations tend to take a while to tighten up and so thats another issue, though its probably also helping to keep a good amount of moisture coming up, which is something TD2 struggled with badly.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: Invest 90L

#723 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:36 pm

Yes this will likely be a very large storm once it develops.
0 likes   

I-wall
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 90L

#724 Postby I-wall » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:37 pm

Does anyone have the latest shear forecast maps?
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 90L

#725 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:43 pm

Near its southern boundary, the SAL is also associated with the midlevel African easterly jet centered near 700 hPa, which can greatly increase the low-level vertical wind shear.


Dunion, J.P., and C.S. Velden, 2004: The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 353–365.

The CIMSS imagery shows the dry air aspect of the SAL, but doesn't necessarily capture the shear generating easterly jet, which in turn, isn't necessarily well represented in conventional shear analysis.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#726 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:46 pm

Very good find clfenwi, that does make sense though the shear charts are showing an area of general shear being about anyway close to 90L.

18z run coming through now...
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: Invest 90L

#727 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:56 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:Certainly not good for the islands if that pans out. Watch out Ms.Bee, caribepr, Luis gustywind and all of our other Caribbean friends. Next week is the time we would normally be in St. Maarten but outside forces caused us to change our plans! Whew!

Lynn

Tkanks Lynn :) we appreciate sincerely this thought to all carib islanders :wink: We continue to monitor 90L with attention.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#728 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:59 pm

Hmm.. what's this behind 90L?

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#729 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:03 pm

Who knows, still the GFS hasn't got 90L quite so strong thus far in the run but the placement is VERY close yet again, maybe a fraction to the south probably due to it being weaker on this run.
0 likes   

NEXRAD
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 370
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:05 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#730 Postby NEXRAD » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:06 pm

As an opinion rather than forecast, I'm still thinking 90L - in whatever form it ends up in - will stay more towards the right side of the model guidance spectrum. Climatology with the developing El-Nino pattern combined with persistent East Coast troughing favors such. With extended forecasts, climo and persistent large-scale patterns tend to be at least as good as the numerical guidance.

- Jay
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#731 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:07 pm

Looks just as strong as 12z, and look at its sibling behind it:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#732 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:10 pm

Looks on track to slam the NE Caribbean again
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#733 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:15 pm

Significant hurricane just past the Lesser Antilles and the next storm looks ready to go behind it:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#734 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:19 pm

The 18z GFS run looks a tad south of the 12z so far
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#735 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:20 pm

Yep, looks like its heading towards DR/Haiti, which is a really scary thought!
0 likes   

User avatar
Annie Oakley
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
Location: Texas

#736 Postby Annie Oakley » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:20 pm

KWT-you mentioned Dean a couple of times-I hope 90 won't be like him-he was so intense -but quite a beautiful storm....
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#737 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:24 pm

Passes just south of Puerto Rico, hits Haiti and what looks to be another significant storm approaching the Antilles:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#738 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:26 pm

Well Dean was a total outlier really in how far west it got from where it started, even though there is ridging in place it shouldn't be as strong as that.

18z GFS hammers DR/Haiti, worst case in terms of lifeloss if that happens after last years horror show...
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#739 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:26 pm

Slams Haiti with another system on its tail heading for the Leewards again.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#740 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:27 pm

this may be a very quiet season in terms of numbers

and may yet be one of the most destructive if that scenario comes true
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests