Caribbean - Central America Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Watching the Atlantic closely
Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 14, 2009 5:38 pm ET
ATLANTIC
A well developed low pressure continues to get better organized in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It is located around 250 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions remain favorable for it to become a tropical depression at any time. If this occurs, it would likely continue moving in a westward direction, but would be no threat to any land for several days.
It remains possible that this low pressure could become the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which would be Ana.
Ahead of this low pressure, the remnant low pressure for Tropical Depression Two was located over 1225 miles west of the Lesser Antilles. Shower and thunderstorm activity is increasing with this system, but it is still fighting dry air and shearing winds aloft.
As this remnant low moves west, it is still possible for it to reorganize and achieve tropical storm status.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... ne_tracker
Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 14, 2009 5:38 pm ET
ATLANTIC
A well developed low pressure continues to get better organized in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It is located around 250 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions remain favorable for it to become a tropical depression at any time. If this occurs, it would likely continue moving in a westward direction, but would be no threat to any land for several days.
It remains possible that this low pressure could become the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which would be Ana.
Ahead of this low pressure, the remnant low pressure for Tropical Depression Two was located over 1225 miles west of the Lesser Antilles. Shower and thunderstorm activity is increasing with this system, but it is still fighting dry air and shearing winds aloft.
As this remnant low moves west, it is still possible for it to reorganize and achieve tropical storm status.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... ne_tracker
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
2 red code 
and two potential threat for the EC, things continue to heating up! Looking carefully to our east...000
ABNT20 KNHC 142325
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET
INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME
ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 12 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE ...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD ALSO FORM TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE ACTIVITY IS MORE
CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.[/size]
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS AREA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
and two potential threat for the EC, things continue to heating up! Looking carefully to our east...000ABNT20 KNHC 142325
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET
INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME
ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 12 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE ...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD ALSO FORM TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE ACTIVITY IS MORE
CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.[/size]
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS AREA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
Gustywind wrote:2 red code
ABNT20 KNHC 142325
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET
INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME
ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 12 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE ...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD ALSO FORM TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE ACTIVITY IS MORE
CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.[/size]
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS AREA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
How accurate they are to say that 90 L could also form tonight and tommorow
, hummm 
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO IS NEAR 15N43W...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W.
RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N29W 10N29W 3N28W
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 32.5W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SIDE OF EASTERN CUBA...ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA...INTO EASTERN
PANAMA AND BEYOND MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. 21N70W 15N70W 3N67W
IN SOUTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17.5N TO 20N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS STARTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
HAITI.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEYOND EXTREME WESTERN EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA. THIS AREA IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
...THE ITCZ...
14N17W 12N28W 11N50W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA.
...DISCUSSION...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...TO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS
THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
15N80W TO WESTERN CUBA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WEST OF 75W
FROM INTERIOR CUBA TO 32N.
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. AND
MEXICO.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THIS AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA
THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
TO 15N80W TO WESTERN CUBA IS MORE RELATED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NOT THE 78W TROPICAL WAVE. THE STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W
ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 31N42W TO
A 27N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME HAVE DISSIPATED ALREADY LEAVING REMNANT
CLOUDS...FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. A SECOND MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N63W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO IS NEAR 15N43W...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W.
RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N29W 10N29W 3N28W
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 32.5W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SIDE OF EASTERN CUBA...ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA...INTO EASTERN
PANAMA AND BEYOND MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. 21N70W 15N70W 3N67W
IN SOUTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17.5N TO 20N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS STARTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
HAITI.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEYOND EXTREME WESTERN EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA. THIS AREA IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
...THE ITCZ...
14N17W 12N28W 11N50W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA.
...DISCUSSION...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...TO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS
THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
15N80W TO WESTERN CUBA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WEST OF 75W
FROM INTERIOR CUBA TO 32N.
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. AND
MEXICO.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THIS AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA
THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
TO 15N80W TO WESTERN CUBA IS MORE RELATED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NOT THE 78W TROPICAL WAVE. THE STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W
ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 31N42W TO
A 27N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME HAVE DISSIPATED ALREADY LEAVING REMNANT
CLOUDS...FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. A SECOND MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N63W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W.
$$
MT
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Re:
caribepr wrote:I'm getting a lot of questions about 'what do I think' - I think, get your butts in gear and just have final preps left to do if necessary. It's getting strange out there fast.
I've been telling my husband exactly that all day and I am getting no response.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
90L
Experiencing some shear...
14/1745 UTC 11.7N 29.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Ex TD 2
Racing west...
More conducive conditions for Ex TD2 allowing maybe for some developpement...
14/1745 UTC 14.7N 43.4W T1.0/1.0 02L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Experiencing some shear...
14/1745 UTC 11.7N 29.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Ex TD 2
Racing west...
More conducive conditions for Ex TD2 allowing maybe for some developpement...
14/1745 UTC 14.7N 43.4W T1.0/1.0 02L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Re:
msbee wrote:caribepr wrote:I'm getting a lot of questions about 'what do I think' - I think, get your butts in gear and just have final preps left to do if necessary. It's getting strange out there fast.
I've been telling my husband exactly that all day and I am getting no response.
Not easy Msbee arff, matter of time... 
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Re: Re:
Gustywind wrote:msbee wrote:caribepr wrote:I'm getting a lot of questions about 'what do I think' - I think, get your butts in gear and just have final preps left to do if necessary. It's getting strange out there fast.
I've been telling my husband exactly that all day and I am getting no response.
Know what you mean AAARRRGGGHHH .... sometimes the stonger sex seem to like to put things on the pending list...
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Stay safe all my caribbean family in the north.... will say prayers that somehow these systems won't get there.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
caribsue wrote:Stay safe all my caribbean family in the north.... will say prayers that somehow these systems won't get there.
Tkanks we appreciate sincerely caribsue
Leewards seems fairly in the cone while the Windwards "less"...but who knows, be vigilant all the islands should paid attention with 90L and even ex td 2.
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Gustywind wrote:caribsue wrote:Stay safe all my caribbean family in the north.... will say prayers that somehow these systems won't get there.
Tkanks we appreciate sincerely caribsue
Hey Gusty.... I know ..... I trying to stay positive for everyone, my preps will be done tomorrow morning, fuel for hurricane lamps, candles, foodstuff etc....you got any graphics of that cone?
p.s. No offence meant by my earlier comments... but you gotta admit sometimes guys do like a bit of procrastination. LOL.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
caribsue wrote:Gustywind wrote:caribsue wrote:Stay safe all my caribbean family in the north.... will say prayers that somehow these systems won't get there.
Tkanks we appreciate sincerely caribsue
Hey Gusty.... I know ..... I trying to stay positive for everyone, my preps will be done tomorrow morning, fuel for hurricane lamps, candles, foodstuff etc....you got any graphics of that cone?
p.s. No offence meant by my earlier comments... but you gotta admit sometimes guys do like a bit of procrastination. LOL.
Good nice analysis, that's great, agree with you
i stay positive to be informative as possible without falling in the panick of preparing etc...Here's an idea of the models: 
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
Whereas the best infos are on the board on this thread
you will have very nice infos 
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106157&hilit=&start=360Friendly Gustywind
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Looks like the two systems are heading west while they're are gaining much more convection tonight...
Latest positions:
14/2345 UTC 15.2N 44.9W T1.5/1.5 02L -- Atlantic
14/2315 UTC 11.7N 30.8W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic
90L has maintained a west bound, not good news for the islands especially all the Leewards...something to watch closely...
Good night all, Cycloneye too.
Gustywind
Latest positions:
14/2345 UTC 15.2N 44.9W T1.5/1.5 02L -- Atlantic
14/2315 UTC 11.7N 30.8W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic
90L has maintained a west bound, not good news for the islands especially all the Leewards...something to watch closely...
Good night all, Cycloneye too.
Gustywind
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145322
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
TD 2 is again up
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO HAS REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DATA FROM
A NOAA G-IV MISSION...NOAA BUOY 41041...AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED
ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED. THE BUOY
ALSO REPORTED 1006.4 MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 19 KT.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS NOW PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER LONG
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND WINDS FROM ASCAT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM IN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. IN A FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT
THE SYSTEM IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE CHANGES
IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF GUIDANCE CYCLES.
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INDUCE SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR. GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THOUGH 48 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF
MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY
TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A
HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0430Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.7N 47.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 51.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 58.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 65.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO HAS REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DATA FROM
A NOAA G-IV MISSION...NOAA BUOY 41041...AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED
ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED. THE BUOY
ALSO REPORTED 1006.4 MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 19 KT.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS NOW PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER LONG
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND WINDS FROM ASCAT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM IN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. IN A FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT
THE SYSTEM IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE CHANGES
IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF GUIDANCE CYCLES.
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INDUCE SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR. GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THOUGH 48 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF
MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY
TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A
HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0430Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.7N 47.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 51.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 58.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 65.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
... and now wake up to Ana! Was to catch a 7am ferry for 3 day visit with friend in St. Thomas, figuring coming home Monday, before we had any real 'weather'. 
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145322
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTNT32 KNHC 150836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145322
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151004
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED 475
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW PRODUCED BY A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...IS TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS SHOWS A LINE OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER THAN TODAY. IN FACT...LATEST PROGNOSIS
SOUNDINGS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1.30
INCHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST VALUES
FROM CIMSS. HOWEVER...THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
IMPORTANT CHANGES HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THE LAST 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM ANA...THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON IS BORN. AT 5:00 AM AST THIS
MORNING...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL TRACK...PASS ANA
BETWEEN 35-50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ANA...WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A
WESTWARD TRACK AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER...SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A
LITTLE...PRODUCING A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE STORM. IF
THIS NOT HAPPEN...THEN...THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MORE STRONGER.
IN ANY WAYS...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FROM OUR
FORECAST AREA...TO PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
BEHIND TROPICAL STORM ANA...ANOTHER SYSTEM...A VERY STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE...HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...MAINLY WHEN THE
SYSTEM REACH 50 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...PASSING THE CENTER NEAR 150 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWER...AND ALSO WILL BE LESS
STRONGER...THAN PREVIOUS COMPUTER MODEL RUNS. A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE...IF FORECAST BY MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS IN THE
LONG RANGE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. IF THE SYSTEM MOVE
SLOWER...IT WILL REACH THE WEAKNESS BY THAT TIME...AND WILL TEND
TO MOVE MORE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM
MOVE FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS...THE RIDGE WILL BE
INTACT AND MORE STRONGER WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACKS OF BOTH SYSTEMS...RESIDENTS
OF PR AND THE USVI ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AND GO OVER THEIR
HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS IN CASE THE THREAT FROM THESE TWO
TROPICAL SYSTEMS BECOMES MORE REAL.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 61W BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 15/18Z AND 16/00Z
SPREADING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS AS
CLOUDS DEVELOP AND OBSCURE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS.
FXCA62 TJSJ 151004
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED 475
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW PRODUCED BY A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...IS TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS SHOWS A LINE OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER THAN TODAY. IN FACT...LATEST PROGNOSIS
SOUNDINGS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1.30
INCHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST VALUES
FROM CIMSS. HOWEVER...THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
IMPORTANT CHANGES HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THE LAST 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM ANA...THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON IS BORN. AT 5:00 AM AST THIS
MORNING...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL TRACK...PASS ANA
BETWEEN 35-50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ANA...WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A
WESTWARD TRACK AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER...SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A
LITTLE...PRODUCING A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE STORM. IF
THIS NOT HAPPEN...THEN...THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MORE STRONGER.
IN ANY WAYS...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FROM OUR
FORECAST AREA...TO PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
BEHIND TROPICAL STORM ANA...ANOTHER SYSTEM...A VERY STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE...HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...MAINLY WHEN THE
SYSTEM REACH 50 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...PASSING THE CENTER NEAR 150 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWER...AND ALSO WILL BE LESS
STRONGER...THAN PREVIOUS COMPUTER MODEL RUNS. A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE...IF FORECAST BY MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS IN THE
LONG RANGE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. IF THE SYSTEM MOVE
SLOWER...IT WILL REACH THE WEAKNESS BY THAT TIME...AND WILL TEND
TO MOVE MORE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM
MOVE FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS...THE RIDGE WILL BE
INTACT AND MORE STRONGER WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACKS OF BOTH SYSTEMS...RESIDENTS
OF PR AND THE USVI ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AND GO OVER THEIR
HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS IN CASE THE THREAT FROM THESE TWO
TROPICAL SYSTEMS BECOMES MORE REAL.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 61W BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 15/18Z AND 16/00Z
SPREADING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS AS
CLOUDS DEVELOP AND OBSCURE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS.
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